We Gave Them The Friggin’ Game
What’s that? Ah — Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game! Another game.
That’s how the great Jim Mora responded to a reporter’s question after his Indianapolis Colts lost to the San Francisco 49ers in 2001. It was a game in which Mora’s team “sucked” and was “disgraceful” and “pitiful” (his words). The loss dropped the Colts to 4-6. Playoffs? My man just wanted to win another game.
But he’s a coach.
How do players respond when the chance to make the playoffs slips away? Do players in the playoff hunt perform better than players out of the playoff chase in December? Are the dudes with a shot at the Super Bowl more apt to have big games? Or could it be the exact opposite?
I decided to explore these questions with the FantasyLabs Tools.
Jim Cantore is not nearly as humorous as Mora, but the dude will broadcast live clinging to a coconut tree on a tropical island while a Category 5 hurricane rages around him. Cantore is crazy — and so is the weather. How does weather — particular cold weather — impact performance? Let’s find out.
The Mora Dilemma
My first step into researching the Mora dilemma was to separate teams from both the 2014 and 2015 seasons into two groups: Playoff and non-playoff teams. Then I looked at December games. Any team that had a chance to make the playoffs in Week 17 but did not make the playoffs was still considered a ‘playoff team’ for this research.
Next, I looked into each individual position to determine if there was any usable data. Because of the massive amount of data to sift through, I am sharing only the compelling and potentially useful results, all of which are from DraftKings.
Playoff Running Backs
The playoff RB cohort had the strongest results among all the positional groups. In 2014, playoff RBs averaged 13.36 DK points per game (PPG) and delivered a +2.36 Plus/Minus — the third-highest Plus/Minus in the study. These backs produced 3.41 more DK PPG and an additional +0.56 of Plus/Minus compared to the 2014 non-playoff RBs.
The results in 2015 were similar: Playoff RBs were 1.2 DK PPG and +1.17 Plus/Minus more productive than non-playoff RBs. The 2015 playoff RBs averaged 11.74 DK PPG and a +2.40 Plus/Minus — the second-highest Plus/Minus of the study.
Unsurprisingly, we see a difference between the two subgroups in regards to big performances. Playoff RBs scored 25 or more DK points in 19 out of 179 games (10.6 percent). The non-playoff counterparts reached 25 DK points in just nine of 176 games (5.1 percent). A healthy 19.5 percent (35 of 179) of playoff RBs scored at least 20 DK points while only 11.3 percent (20 of 176) of non-playoff RBs met or exceeded the 20-point threshold.
Playoff Defenses
Somewhat surprisingly, playoff defenses also had very strong and consistent results when compared to their non-playoff mates. First of all, no position in the study performed with at least 60 percent Consistency other than playoff defenses, which hit that mark in both 2014 and 2015.
In 2014, playoff defenses averaged 9.17 DK PPG and produced a +1.29 Plus/Minus with 63.6 percent Consistency. These results were 1.97 DK PPG and +1.32 Plus/Minus better than the non-playoff group, which not only yielded a negative Plus/Minus (-0.03) did so with 20.5 fewer percentage points of Consistency.
The 2015 playoff defenses were also much better than the non-playoff defenses, averaging 9.08 DK PPG with a +1.43 Plus/Minus and 65 percent Consistency. Their non-playoff counterparts averaged 7.74 DK PPG (-1.34), a +0.09 Plus/Minus (-1.34), and just 44.1 percent Consistency (-20.9).
As was the case with RBs, playoff defenses were likelier to have big games then the non-playoff units. A considerable 34.3 percent of playoff defenses (47 of 137) scored at least 12 DK points compared to just 21.8 percent of non-playoff defenses (26 of 119). Additionally, playoff defenses scored 16 or more DK points in 17.5 percent of games (24 of 137), while non-playoff defenses accomplished the same feat in just 9.2 percent of games (11 of 119).
Some Takeaways
Defense wins championships, baby? The data seems to suggest that as the season winds down and playoff bids are on the line, playoff defenses play at a much higher level than the non-playoff units. And playoff RBs also elevate their play in December. Perhaps coaches competing with the playoffs in mind become more conservative and utilize their RB more consistently.
Results were extremely noisy among quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. Positions that played well as playoff contenders compared to non-playoff contenders did well in 2014 but did poorly in 2015 and vice versa.
Frozen Balls and Ice Kings
We’ve all been taught that water freezes at 32 degrees Fahrenheit, so for the purposes of this examination I looked at numbers from games with a temperature of 32 degrees or lower compared to games played at 33 degrees and higher.
As one might expect, every single skill position displayed superior performance in terms of DK PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency in the non-freezing temperatures. Only defenses have a slight advantage in the freezing temperatures: They average an additional 0.79 DK PPG, +0.68 points of Plus/Minus, and 0.1 percent more Consistency.
Non-freezing RBs and TEs have had the biggest advantage in terms of Plus/Minus: +1.64 and +1.67. Non-freezing QBs and TEs have had the biggest advantage in terms of DK PPG: +1.04 and +1.68 points.
Frozen Balls and Ice Kings, Part II
Because that seems like a really anti-climatic way to end a study that required a sh*t-ton of research, I decided to look at individual players to see if any have displayed an ability to play well when the temperatures drop and the balls freeze.
Quarterback
Since 2014, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 25.94 DK PPG and a +6.5 Plus/Minus in freezing games. He scored at least 24.44 DK points in four of those six games and 31.84 points twice. Every one of those games was played at Green Bay.
The sample is small but Matthew Stafford has produced 23.75 DK PPG and a +7.73 Plus/Minus in two freezing games since 2014. He scored at least 22.58 DK points in both games.
Running Back
C.J. Anderson (may his 2016 season rest in peace) has been a beast in freezing weather: He’s averaged 23.2 DK PPG and a ridiculous +12.4 Plus/Minus in five games since 2014.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Marshall is only happy when it’s cold: He’s delivered 28.6 DK PPG and a giant +14.8 Plus/Minus in three games in freezing conditions since 2014. Impressively, Marshall scored at least 28 points in all three games.
Not far behind Marshall is Antonio Brown, who has generated 28.0 DK PPG and an +8.92 Plus/Minus in three games. Brown scored at least 20.2 DK points in all three games. Worth noting is that Brown’s two best freezing performances came away from Heinz Field: He scored 39.7 DK points in Cleveland and 24.1 DK points in Tennessee.
Not surprising (when considering Rodgers’ success in the cold) are the numbers of Jordy Nelson (23.36 DK PPG, +6.1 Plus/Minus in five games) and Randall Cobb (17.15 DK PPG, +2.2 Plus/Minus in six games). Nelson scored 23.9 DK points or more in three of five games while Cobb scored 16.2 or more in four of six.
Both Demaryius Thomas (18.32 DK PPG, +0.6 Plus/Minus in six games) and Emmanuel Sanders (18.08 DK PPG, +2.2 Plus/Minus in five games) have also been good. Thomas has been hit or miss. He’s had at least 18.3 DK points in three games — including a 36.7-point monster — but he’s also had a 4.6-point stinker and two other games of fewer than 15 DK points. Sanders has had two games of 20.3 DK points or more and three of 16.7 or less.
Notably, Davante Adams has been terrible in freezing games: He’s averaged just 7.42 DK PPG and a -0.41 Plus/Minus in six games. Adams produced one 21.1-point game and five other games of 9.4 DK points or less.
Tight End
The only TE worth mentioning is Travis Kelce, who has scored fewer than 7.5 DK points in four of his six appearances in games of 32 degrees or less.
Defense
The Minnesota defense (14.4 DK PPG, +7.1 Plus/Minus in five games) has had some dominant games in the freezing temperatures. The Vikings scored 17 DK points or more in three of five games.
Conclusions
Both playoff RBs and playoff defenses have outproduced their non-playoff counterparts by considerable margins in December. There has been no determinable advantage for QBs, WRs, or TEs who are either playoff or non-playoff teams.
In general, playing in temperatures above freezing has produced better all-around results for all skill positions. There are, however, certain players who have displayed an ability to play well in cold temperatures. Rostering these players in bad weather games could potentially give you an ownership advantage over players shying away from inclement weather.
