NFL Week 4 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football contest between the New York Jets and Denver Broncos starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Melvin Gordon at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,500 as opposed to $11,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
If you thought last week’s Thursday Night Football game was unappealing, this week’s is downright hideous. The Jets have been easily the worst team in football through the first three weeks of the season, and the Broncos haven’t been that much better.
The Jets do take the field as slight one-point favorites in this contest, but that’s only because they’re playing at home against a third string QB. The Broncos lost Drew Lock to an injury and benched Jeff Driskel, which means Brett Rypien will make his first career start.
It’s very difficult to call Rypien a “stud” by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s the third-most expensive player in this contest. He entered the league as an undrafted free agent after a solid college career at Boise State. Rypien posted an above average yards per attempt in college and had an 89th percentile breakout age per Player Profiler, but those are really the only positives to take away with Rypien. He lacks an NFL-caliber arm and doesn’t make up for it with athleticism.
Quarterbacks tend to perform better as home favorites than road underdogs, which makes Rypien a risky DFS option even against a porous Jets defense.
Darnold should be the more popular QB option in this contest. He leads all players in median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models, and he has been slightly better at home than he has been on the road during his NFL career (per the Trends tool).
He should also benefit from getting his top pass-catcher back in the lineup. Jamison Crowder is expected to play after missing each of the past two weeks with a hamstring injury, and those two players have developed excellent chemistry over the past two seasons. Darnold doesn’t like to throw the ball deep – he ranks 32nd out of 33 QBs in air yards per pass attempt this season – so having a reliable slot receiver like Crowder figures to benefit Darnold more than most quarterbacks.
The Broncos also represent an excellent matchup for Darnold. They rank just 26th in Football Outsiders‘ pass defense DVOA this season, and Darnold leads the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 on DraftKings.
Gordon is the most expensive player on the slate, and he’s probably the closest thing to a stud on either of these offenses. He’s had some great seasons in the past with the Chargers and was a highly regarded prospect after being drafted in the first round.
He should continue to handle the majority of the RB touches for the Broncos as long as Phillip Lindsay is out of the lineup. Lindsay has practiced a bit this week and did travel with the team to New York, but it still seems like he’s unlikely to suit up.
Still, it’s hard to get behind Gordon in this spot. The one thing that the Jets have done somewhat well this season is stop the run. They currently rank third in rush defense DVOA, giving Gordon an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.3 on DraftKings.
The Jets have still surrendered some big games to opposing RBs this season, but that has more to do with game script that their ability in the run game. The Jets have faced a lot of large deficits this season, so teams are naturally going to lean on their running backs in those situations. Unless you think the Broncos can grab a big lead, Gordon carries some risk at his current salary.
Mid-Range
This looks like it could be a good day for a balanced lineup build. Stars-and-scrubs has a lot of value in the single-game format, but the “stars” don’t offer a ton of ceiling in this contest. With that in mind, loading up on this price range has more appeal than usual.
Noah Fant is the most expensive player in this price range, and he has a lot of appeal in this spot. The Jets have been dreadful vs. TEs this season, ranking 31st in DVOA vs. the position. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.5 trails only Darnold’s mark on today’s slate.
Fant also has the potential to see a big workload in this matchup. The Broncos will have to play without No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton after he tore his ACL in Week 2, which opened up a few additional opportunities for Fant in Week 3. He ultimately finished with 10 targets but was limited to just five catches for 46 yards. Expect him to be a favorite target for Rypien just like he was for Driskel last week.
Jerry Jeudy is another player who should see a few additional targets with Sutton sidelined. He’s coming off nine targets in his last contest and recorded five catches for 55 yards.
He could improve upon those numbers with some better QB play, but his matchup vs. the Jets isn’t as good as Fant’s. Jeudy has run 82% of his routes from the slot this season, and Jets’ slot corner Brian Poole has earned the top Pro Football Focus grade in their secondary.
Crowder is not expected to be at full strength for this contest, but he has arguably one of the highest ceilings. He saw a whopping 13 targets in his only game this season and finished with seven catches for 115 yards and a touchdown. Crowder has very little competition for targets at the moment – Le’Veon Bell, Breshad Perriman, and rookie Denzel Mims are all sidelined – so another large target share seems likely.
After Crowder, the Jets options get very shaky. Frank Gore has had at least 15 carries in back-to-back games, including at least three red zone carries in each contest. That said, that hasn’t exactly translated to much fantasy success: He’s averaged just 6.75 DraftKings points in those games. Still, it seems like he should get another solid workload in a game the Jets might actually have a chance of winning.
Braxton Berrios has scored for the Jets in each of the past two contest, but he’s a risky option now that Crowder is back in the fold. He seems overpriced at his current salary across the industry.
If you do want to roll the dice on a Jets’ pass catcher other than Crowder, consider Chris Herndon. Herndon has gotten off to a rough start this season, but he remains a very intriguing prospect at the TE position. He’s played plenty of snaps through his first three games, so a breakout is definitely possible.
Values & Punts
- Kickers and Defenses — These guys are definitely in play tonight. The total currently sits at just 39.5 points, and both QBs are potentially exploitable. Who knows how Rypien will look in his first career start, and Darnold threw two pick-sixes last week vs. the Colts. One interesting thing to note here is that Darnold has a correlation of +0.48 with the Jets defense. You don’t normally think of a QB having a great correlation with his defense, but this is an exception. They make for an interesting stack.
- Tim Patrick: $5,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – Patrick saw a nice uptick in playing time last week. He played on 84% of their offensive snaps and managed to record four catches for 43 yards and TD. He’s a solid value option.
- K.J. Hamler: $4,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – Hamler wasn’t as successful as Patrick last week, but he might be the more appealing target in the long run. He actually led the Broncos’ WRs in snaps last week and entered the league as a promising third-round draft pick.
- Chris Hogan: $3,200 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel – Hogan is also on track to suit up this week despite being listed as questionable. He has played on 87% of the Jets offensive snaps this season, so Crowder doesn’t figure to cut into his playing time.
- Ryan Griffin: $600 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel – I don’t think you need to play someone this cheap today, but Griffin is a decent second string TE who can grab a touchdown in the red zone.
