The Introduction That Never Was
So far in this series I’ve written about Vince Lombardi and my douchebag hat, Jimmy Conway, Frodo and the Tower of Amon Sûl, and most recently the Company Picnic.
In this introduction I was going to tell you an awesome story about a Frenchwoman named Jeanne Calment and a dumb-ass lawyer I read about in The Drunkard’s Walk — a book about randomness by Leonard Mlodinow (the same dude who has written about Let’s Make a Deal and Monty Hall — a concept previously discussed by Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman and also Bryan Mears on this site). The only problem is that the introduction I wrote ended up being longer than the actual article so I s*it-canned it.
The streamlined version is this: There is order in chaos. As Mlodinow writes, “When data are collected from groups and analyzed en masse, regular patterns emerge.”
The point of this entire series has been to try and identify those patterns from a daily fantasy sports perspective.
In our Player Models each week you can find our FantasyLabs ownership projections for both the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and FanDuel Sunday Million. These projections have been incredibly accurate.
In addition, we have historic tournament ownership data available in our Trends tool, which you can utilize to pinpoint historic ownership in exact situations with countless filters.
Throughout this series I’ve used our Trends tool to examine past ownership data to see if we can embrace the chaos and uncover any patterns that can give us an advantage when building GPP lineups.
This piece: Vegas spreads and tight ends.
Vegas Favorites
I broke down Vegas favorites into four ranges according to the spread. Because I’m concentrating on tournament ownership and concerned only with the ownership of players who will help us win, I set the projected ceilings of each FanDuel and DraftKings sample at a minimum of 10 and 12.5 points. Since DK has points-per-reception scoring and offers three bonus points for tight ends who reach 100 yards receiving, the increased ceiling on DK was a necessary adjustment. These are the results I got for the favorites:
DraftKings
Playing favorite DK TEs has been a sharp move in general terms. Favorites in every spread range have produced a Plus/Minus of at least +3.26 or higher and only one grouping has been owned at an average percentage greater than 9.2 percent.
TEs playing in the lowest spread range (-0.5 to -3.5) have been owned at the lowest percentage (6.9 percent) and manufactured the second-highest Plus/Minus (+3.81). They’ve yielded an average of 12.02 DK points per game with incredible Consistency (65.3 percent). This spread range is a great landing spot for finding your tournament TE. Tyler Eifert posted a 33.4 DK point performance in this exact spot last season at just 3.9 percent average ownership.
Favorite TEs playing in games with a spread of -7.5 to -10 have been owned at the highest percentage (10.7 percent) but they have played too well to ignore. They have destroyed their salary-based expectations with a +4.74 Plus/Minus and scored an amazing average of 15.05 DK points per game.
Staying away from TEs playing as massive favorites (-10.5 and more) is a potential strategy for DK: These TEs have been owned at the second-highest percentage (9.2 percent) and produced the lowest Plus/Minus (+3.26) among all the subgroups.
FanDuel
The obvious pattern among favorite FD TEs is that as the spread increases so does the average ownership percentage. Importantly, as the average ownership increases the average Plus/Minus decreases, except in one notable situation: TEs favored by 7.5 to 10 points.
While these favorite TEs have been owned at a relatively high percentage (9.6 percent), they have also performed quite admirably on the field. They have produced a very chunky +4.11 Plus/Minus as well as 12.5 FD points per game, and they have done so with fairly desirable 57.4 percent Consistency. Rob Gronkowski has scored 17 FD points or more in five of his 12 chances playing in this spread range. His average ownership percentage, however, has been 12.8 percent.
In terms of finding an ownership advantage, choosing TEs favored by the smallest margins (-0.5 to -3.5) — who have traditionally been owned at an average of just 6.6 percent — is the way to go with the favorites. These TEs have produced the second-best Plus/Minus (+3.13) and been the most consistent (61.5 percent).
Vegas Underdogs
DraftKings
Fading underdog TEs playing in games with a close spread (+0.5 to +3.5) is an advisable strategy for DK: These TEs have been owned at the second-highest percentage (7.4 percent) but have generated the lowest Plus/Minus (2.14) of all the underdog subgroups.
The slightly larger underdogs (+4 to +7) crush their salary-based expectations with a +3.96 Plus/Minus and provide the highest DK points per game (11.42) while being owned at the second-lowest percentage (6.4 percent).
The obvious ownership advantage occurs in the games with a spread of +7.5 to +10, where TEs have historically been owned at just 3.9 percent. Approach cautiously, however, as they have also manufactured the lowest DK points per game (9.7) and met their expectations with the least Consistency (55.8 percent).
FanDuel
Some clear patterns emerge here. First of all, ownership among underdog TEs is mostly flat with a range of 4.3 percent to 6.6 percent. There is no spread range at which underdog TEs have been massively owned.
Secondly, the TEs playing in games with a spread ranging from +4 to +7 have produced the highest Plus/Minus (+3.12) and raw points per game (9.17) and been the most reliable (58 percent Consistency). There is some excellent value to be found in this spread range and with average ownership of just 4.8 percent (second lowest) this is an excellent target area for GPP lineups.
For instance, earlier this season Zach Miller dropped 23.8 FD points on the Cowboys and was owned at just 0.3 percent in large field tournaments. Performances like this are GPP gold.
Targeting TEs playing as huge underdogs (+10 and up) has also been profitable business. They have been owned at the lowest percentage (4.3 percent) and produced a healthy +2.86 Plus/Minus. The frequency, however, at which these huge-spread games have been played is rather low.
Some Conclusions
That Frenchwoman Calment I referred to earlier lived to be 122 years old. She lived the final 30-plus years of her life rent-free in an apartment that a much younger attorney basically paid her to live in. You really need to read about her. It’s great.
If you want to be like Calment, you should embrace the chaos of DFS GPPs and try to find the patterns that emerge from unpredictable events. If Calment were looking for TEs to play on DK and FD, I imagine she would keep these guidelines in mind:
– DK TEs who are favorites should be used.
– Using TEs in games with a spread of -0.5 to -3.5 can help you maximize ROI and Consistency.
– Even though TEs favored by 7.5 to 10 points have been owned at the highest percentage of the study, they produce such amazing results that they should not be faded on ownership alone.
– On FD, look for favored TEs playing in the lowest spread range (-0.5 to -3.5) or jump up to those playing in games with a spread of -7.5 to -10.
– If you choose to play underdog TEs you should focus on those playing in games with a spread of +4 to +7 on both sites.
This concludes the study of ownership and Vegas spreads. Next time, something I haven’t yet thought of.
