The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
No PG on today’s slate offers a better combination of matchup and recent production than Kyle Lowry. Despite coming off a dreadful performance in his last outing against the Clippers, Lowry has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.19 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He has a dream matchup tonight against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season, which helps explain Lowry’s +7.40 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
The big worry in this game is the giant 11.5-point spread. The Suns are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, and, even though they’re at home, this has some serious blowout potential. But consider: Large favorites have historically produced more fantasy points, a higher Plus/Minus, and a better Consistency Rating …
… compared to favorites of five points or less:
Even if the Raptors blow the Suns out today, Lowry will likely have had a large part in that. He’s going to be tough to avoid on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Kris Dunn has been a solid contributor of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.52 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s shown an ability to contribute in every category this season, but perhaps his greatest source of value has come from his ability to take the ball away from his opponents. His 3.4 steal percentage ranks second in the league, and he’s had five games with at least three steals over his past 10 games. When combining that kind of defensive ability with a team-leading 25.5 percent usage rate, it’s not all that surprising that Dunn has been able to return value despite averaging just 28 minutes per game this season. He has a tough matchup today against the Utah Jazz, as evidenced by the Bulls’ slate-low implied team total, but he’s just flat out underpriced on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Chris Paul has seen at least 32.5 minutes of playing time in three straight games, scoring at least 43.25 DraftKings points in all of them. He’s underpriced on DraftKings at $8,400 if he’s going to continue to play that much, given his average of 1.37 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Like Paul, Rajon Rondo has also seen a nice bump in minutes recently, playing at least 37 in back-to-back games. The Pelicans have the potential to be really shorthanded tonight – Anthony Davis, Jameer Nelson, and Dante Cunningham are all questionable – so Rondo could be forced into big minutes once again. The Davis injury in particular could be huge for Rondo, with only DeMarcus Cousins seeing a larger boost in value with Brow off the floor this season:
The Clippers PGs have the best matchup of the day at the position, with no PG owning a better Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings than Milos Teodosic. He put up 21.25 DraftKings points in just 20.5 minutes in his first game back from injury and looks like a potential value at just $3,900 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Houston Rockets continue to destroy everything in their path, winning 10 straight games while averaging 120.8 points per game over that time frame. Their current Vegas data reflects that dominance, with the Rockets owning the largest implied team total (116.5) and point spread (-12.5) on the slate. Despite the increased presence of Paul, James Harden continues to smash, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his past seven games on FanDuel. His average of 1.6 fantasy points per minute over the past month is the largest on the slate by a wide margin, and he has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.49 against the Charlotte Hornets.
That said, Harden’s salary has crept all the way back up to $12,100 on FanDuel, and it’s fair to wonder if that’s a bit too much for the Houston superstar. He’s historically managed to pay off a comparable salary, but only by the slightest of margins:
The majority of those games have come without Paul in the lineup, and Harden has seen a usage decrease of 2.1 percent and an assist rate decrease of 17.8 percent when sharing the court with Paul this season. There’s very little room for error with him at his current price tag.
Value
Nicolas Batum is doubtful for today’s contest, which means that Jeremy Lamb will likely return to the role he thrived in earlier this season. In 14 games without Batum, Lamb averaged approximately 30 minutes and 27.5 FanDuel points per game:
At just $4,900, he looks like an excellent value.
Fast Break
Tony Snell will sit out his third consecutive game for the Bucks, which means his average of 32 minutes per night will have to be redistributed. Khris Middleton has definitely absorbed a few of those minutes, averaging 38 over his past two games, and he’s converted those minutes into 34.1 FanDuel points per game against the slow-paced Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks. He has a much more fantasy-friendly matchup today against the New Orleans Pelicans, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61.
Lou Williams continues to fill it up for the shorthanded Clippers and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.15 today against the Orlando Magic. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings (86 percent Bargain Rating).
Small Forward
Giannis Antetkounmpo may not have the same eye-popping numbers as Harden recently, but he’s been very good in his own right, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.43 over his past five games. Those games have all come against teams that rank in the bottom nine in pace this season, which makes his production even more impressive. He should have no such problems today against the Pelicans, who are playing at the sixth-fastest pace this season, rewarding the Bucks players with a pace differential (paceD) of +3.4. Giannis has been a solid value in comparable pace-up situations over the past two seasons:
Giannis is another candidate to absorb some of Snell’s playing time, with his minute projection of 39.3 ranking second on today’s slate. His salary is identical to Harden’s on FanDuel at $12,100, but he represents a slight discount on DraftKings, where his $11,300 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
David Nwaba has SF eligibility on FanDuel and PG/SG eligibility on DraftKings, but regardless of where you play him, he’s someone who needs to be on your radar tonight. He’s been a major contributor for the Bulls recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.34 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He should see somewhere around 30 minutes tonight if the game stays close.
Fast Break
Russell Westbrook has reverted to his style of play from last season, and no one has been more affected than Paul George. He’s posted 26.5 FanDuel points or fewer over his past three games, albeit with two of those games coming in brutal matchups against the Spurs and Jazz. Today, George gets a #RevengeGame with the Indiana Pacers, and his salary has decreased by over $1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel since it’s peak. Andre Roberson has also been ruled out of today’s contest, which could result in George seeing even more minutes than his average of 37.0 per game. He’s an intriguing buy-low candidate for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), although his ownership could be inflated by the revenge narrative.
The Nuggets are a bit shorthanded at the moment, but they could be getting Nikola Jokic back for today’s contest. If he sits, however, Wilson Chandler will likely continue to see big minutes between both forward positions. He posted his largest usage rate of the season in last night’s contest against the Pistons and is very affordable on FanDuel, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis will be in his own tier on FanDuel if he’s able to suit up tonight: His $11,100 salary makes him at least $3,400 more expensive than every other player at the position. He has a solid matchup today against the Milwaukee Bucks, with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.76, and a position-high 9 Pro Trends on FanDuel. But it’s going to be tough to trust Davis if he’s active, given his struggles with injuries and production recently.
Value
Both Al Horford (rest) and Marcus Morris (knee) are out for today’s contest, which is going to open up a bunch of minutes in the Celtics frontcourt. One player who should benefit is Jayson Tatum. He has seen the second-largest usage increase on the team and averaged 35.91 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with both Horford and Morris off the court this season:
Daniel Theis could be even more intriguing than Tatum given his minimum salary on FanDuel and average of 1.06 fantasy points per minute over the past month. If he can play even 20 minutes in today’s contest, he’ll have a chance to pay off his bargain price tag throughout the industry.
Fast Break
Lauri Markkanen is questionable for today’s contest, and if he’s unable to go, look for Nikola Mirotic to draw the start. He posted 36.6 FanDuel points filling in for Markkanen in his last game and figures to be one of the Bulls’ highest usage players when on the court this season.
Very few PFs have offered the recent safety of Thaddeus Young, who has posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over the past month. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment, seeing at least 38 in three straight games, and he should benefit from one of the best individual matchups on the Pacers tonight against the defense of Carmelo Anthony.
Center
Studs
Nikola Vucevic has been absolutely dominant recently:
The Magic, who have been pretty shorthanded recently, will be without Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier again for today’s contest. So far this season, Vucevic has been an absolute monster with both of those players off the court:
If that weren’t enough, he has a wonderful matchup today against the Los Angeles Clippers, who have allowed the highest average Plus/Minus to opposing centers this season.
If Davis sits tonight for the Pelicans, it’s going to be extremely difficult to choose between Vucevic and DeMarcus Cousins on FanDuel. Cousins his posted an absolutely ridiculous usage rate of 39.0 percent with Davis off the court this season, resulting in an average of more than 55 FanDuel points per 36 mintues:
Cousins has an elite matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have the worst rebounding rate in the league this season. As a result, Cousins’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.49 on FanDuel is the top mark at the position. While you can only play one on FanDuel, playing both Cousins and Vucevic together on DraftKings is a viable strategy, made easier by the fact that both have Bargain Ratings of at least 86 percent.
Value
It’s impossible to say with 100 percent certainty what the Suns will do on any given night, but if they stick to their wacky center rotation, today will likely be a rest day for Tyson Chandler. That would give a solid boost to Greg Monroe, who has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on DraftKings. The Suns have a tough matchup today against the Raptors, but Monroe might be too good of a value to pass up: He’s historically been an excellent play with a comparable minute projection and salary:
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan has gotten his groove back recently, scoring at least 36.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. Today’s matchup against the Magic could be a good one for him: They have the second-worst rebound rate in the league, which plays right into his biggest strength.
The Pacers have been very cautious with Myles Turner recently, but he appears to be on his way back to big minutes after playing 41 in an overtime win against the Nuggets on Sunday. If he’s going to play that much, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced on DraftKings at $6,300.
Finally, Aron Baynes will likely draw the start at center for the Celitcs today, although how much he ultimately plays is to be determined. Theis probably holds the edge among Celtic punts because he plays the more premium position, but Baynes certainly has a clear path to return value today.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
