The betting line is shifting towards the New York Jets in advance of Thursday night’s battle against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags were down to a pick’em before the Jets came roaring back, currently priced as 2.5-point favorites for this AFC showdown.
Both teams are clinging to postseason aspirations, but both need help to make the playoffs. The Jets are one win behind the Miami Dolphins for the final Wild Card spot. Similarly, Jacksonville could catch the Tennessee Titans for the top spot in the AFC South with a win and a Titans’ loss. The stakes have never been higher for either squad as they look to return to playoff relevance.
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As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
Jaguars vs. Jets Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Travis Etienne Jr. Any Time Touchdown Scorer +130
The Jaguars are giving their young nucleus every chance to perform, including feeding Travis Etienne Jr. the ball on a weekly basis. The former first-round draft pick hasn’t found the endzone since Week 9, a trend we like him to break Thursday against the Jets.
Etienne Jr. is the most frequently used Jaguar by a long shot. The 23-year-old leads the team with 209 touches, over 100 more than the next closest player (James Robinson, 90). Moreover, he gets looks in the running and passing games, giving him plenty of opportunities to find paydirt in prime time.
Other than Week 12’s contest against the Baltimore Ravens, Etienne Jr. has hit double-digit carries in every game since Week 5. Over that stretch, Etienne Jr. is averaging 14.8 carries and 77.3 rushing yards per game, adding 15.7 yards via the aerial attack. Evidently, the Jags are making their star running back a prominent fixture on offense.
Etienne Jr. has maintained his play over the past ten weeks, but his touchdown percentage has fallen over his current schedule. Given his constant workload, it would be wise to expect an increase in scoring to end the campaign. That’s reflected in The Score And Odds projections, rating Etienne Jr. as an any time touchdown scorer as one of the most probable outcomes.
Zonovan Knight Under 59.5 Rushing Yards
Running back Zonovan Knight burst onto the scene as a late-season addition for the Jets. Knight rushed for 230 yards in his first three games before hitting a wall against the Detroit Lions in last week’s loss. We’re expecting the rut to extend into Week 16’s contest against the Jaguars.
It’s not a committee approach, but the Jets can turn to several rushers out of the backfield. More recently, we’ve seen Knight take the lead, but Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, James Robinson, and wide receiver Elijah Moore have all accumulated carries over the past few weeks. Although none of those players will match Knight in carries, it takes away from his potential ceiling.
Additionally, Jacksonville excels against the run on the road. The Jaguars sit top ten in the league, limiting opponents to 107.4 yards per game.
Lastly, New York is emphasizing the passing game over their past few games. Since Week 14, the Jets are throwing the ball 68.7% of the time, leaving fewer carries to distribute amongst Knight and the rest of the rushers.
According to our projections, there’s a 65% chance that Knight stays beneath his 59.5-rushing yard prop. Considering the diminished carries and the Jags’ solid run defense, we’re betting Knight falls below his total.
Zach Wilson Under 11.5 Rushing Yards
Knight isn’t the only ball carrier at risk of coming up short on his prop. Per FanDuel Sportsbook, quarterback Zach Wilson has a modest 11.5-yard rushing prop for Thursday Night Football. Still, the former first-round draft pick will have a hard time exceeding expectations against Jacksonville.
Wilson isn’t renowned for his rushing ability. He’s rushed for seven or fewer yards in four of his eight games this season, taking off an average of 3.4 times per game. Consequently, Wilson’s yards per carry and rushing yards per game have taken a hit, falling to two-year lows.
As noted, the Jets have decreased their reliance on the rushing attack recently, letting Wison and Mike White air things out in the passing game. The former BYU Cougar could have even more opportunities to expose a Jaguars secondary that allows the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL. Those issues are compounded by an ineffective pass rush, with Jacksonville recording the fifth-fewest sacks. Altogether, Wilson will have ample time to sit back and make magic happen via the pass.
An unintended consequence of a focused passing attack is a reduced capacity for the running back. We’ve outlined how that could inhibit Knight on Thursday night, but that will also prevent Wilson from making it over his rushing yard prop. The Score And Odds note an 11% advantage in taking the under 11.5.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on Scores And Odds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
FanDuel Sportsbook has this wager priced at +633 in their SameGame Parlay, in excess of the +334 calculated by Score And Odds projections. We’re playing that advantage on Thursday Night Football.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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