Justin Bailey is a single-lineup player who uses the FantasyLabs Tools to research slates and build daily fantasy rosters. This series — The Single-Entry Savant — highlights the tools he uses and methodology he applies to construct his lineups.
Single Lineup Synopsis
I’m a single-lineup player who generally plays 80 percent of my action in head-to-head games and the other 20 percent in single-entry tournaments. There is an abundance of decisions to make on a weekly or daily basis in DFS, but one thing that remains constant in my process each week is my game allocation:
- Try for at least 30 head-to-heads at a given buy-in level. Otherwise, enter some single-entry double-ups to supplement.
- Thirty $5 head-to-heads are safer than a $100 and $50 head-to-head.
- Stick to single-entry GPPs for your tournament allotment.
Remember: Keep it simple.
Getting Defensive
Most weeks, I don’t usually pay up for my defense, but this week, I’ve been eyeing two high-priced defenses. I’ve started all of my early builds with the Los Angeles Chargers, then once I’ve constructed the rest of my roster, I’ll plug in the Jacksonville Jaguars if I have enough salary. They are my 1A and 1B defenses for Week 13.
The Chargers are a 14-point home favorite against a Browns team that is implied to score a slate-low 14.75 points. It’s a beauty of a matchup as the Browns boast the league’s lowest scoring rate, along with the league’s highest turnover rate, coughing up the ball on 19.7 percent of their drives. The Browns have allowed the fifth-most sacks this season and should have their hands full with Pro Football Focus’ No.1 and No. 2 pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
The Jaguars are currently 10-point home favorites, the second-largest spread of the week, against a Colts team that is implied for the slate’s second-lowest total — 15.5 points. What makes this matchup particularly intriguing is the sack potential. The Jags rank No. 1 Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, forcing a league-high 41 sacks, while the Colts’ offensive line is dead last in same metric, allowing a league-high 47 sacks.
Early in the season, I created a trend within our tool that singles out defenses that are double-digit favorites against teams that are implied for 16 or fewer points. Historically, these defenses have averaged 11.33 DraftKings points with a +2.65 Plus/Minus and a 63.9 percent Consistency Rating. Both the Jags and Chargers rank inside the top four in our sack projections, with the Jaguars leading the slate with 4.9 projected sacks. The Chargers and the Jaguars are currently both in the top three of the Adam Levitan Player Model.
Why Michael Thomas is Primed for Some Positive Regression
There is an abundance of receivers that stand out in the mid-to-high salary range this week. Perhaps my favorite is Michael Thomas for $6,900 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel. I haven’t seen too much chatter about Thomas this week even though the Saints boast the slate’s third-highest implied team total at 26.25 points. The Panthers have been a respectable defense, ranking 10th in Football Outsiders pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and fourth in rush DVOA. But they’ve surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts and rank 24th in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers.
Thomas is one of three receivers this week who has seen at least 30 percent of his team’s targets over the past month and is on a team with an implied total of at least 25 points (Julio Jones and Keenan Allen are the others). This has historically led to positive fantasy output with those receivers averaging 20.55 DraftKings points, a +3.84 Plus/Minus, and an exceptional 60 percent Consistency Rating.
Thomas leads the Saints over the past six games with 31 percent of their target share and 48 percent of their air yards. His 9.8 targets per game since Week 7 is the seventh-highest mark in the league and his 18.9 percent target rate is higher than all six receivers ahead of him with the exception of Julio Jones (22 percent). During that six-week span, he has caught at least seven passes and topped 75 receiving yards in four of those games, averaging a 7-87-0 line. The only thing that’s been missing is the touchdowns. Thomas scored nine times as a rookie but has just two TDs this season. One of those scores came against the Panthers. He appears to be a prime candidate for positive regression. We currently have Thomas with a modest 13-16 percent Ownership Percentage on DraftKings and 9-12 percent on FanDuel.
Cooper Kupp is Still Too Cheap
Cooper Kupp‘s price has risen $1,400 on DraftKings and $900 on FanDuel, but I still think he’s too cheap for someone who could easily see 10 targets against the Cardinals. The Rams faced the Cardinals in Week 7, when Kupp set his then-season-high in targets (10) and went for 4-51-1 as he avoided Patrick Peterson. In Week 12, with Robert Woods out, Kupp saw a new season-high in targets (11), receptions (eight), and yards (116). He has also been heavily involved in the red zone with 17 targets from inside the 20. Only Jimmy Graham (23) and Davante Adams (19) have more.
Given that Sammy Watkins will likely be getting the Peterson treatment and Woods has already been ruled out, I’d set Kupp’s target floor at eight, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit double digits again. He’s a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel, where he’s the 24th-most expensive WR and has a 96 percent Bargain Rating, but I’ll still be building my roster around him on DraftKings. He’s priced as the WR12 there but has the fifth-highest Floor Projection (8.0) below only DeAndre Hopkins, Julio, and Allen.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
