Billy Hamilton is a special player in DFS. He is so bad at so many aspects of baseball, but so good at one: swiping bases. The challenge is identifying when he is in the best position to steal a base. There is no reason to play him expecting him not to get a stolen base. Since steals are his primary skill, I tracked and viewed all 86 of his career steals.
All in all, Hamilton has stolen a base off of 62 different pitchers in his career. I checked with these 62 pitchers to identify any trends. Perhaps Hamilton had a higher percentage vs. power pitchers than finesse pitchers? The thought being that power pitchers rely on a high leg kick and long stride, thus giving the runner more time. Here is a list of each pitcher who has allowed three or more steals to Hamilton:
Pitcher / Steals Against
Shelby Miller / 4
Edinson Volquez / 3
Francisco Liriano / 3
Gerrit Cole / 3
Jake Arrieta / 3
Jon Lester / 3
While Miller and Cole use a high percentage of fastballs, the other four do not. The most significant thing these pitchers all have in common is that they all play, or have played, in the NL Central. This makes sense because Hamilton has played the most games against the NL Central. Maybe Hamilton has more success stealing bases vs. righties than lefties?
Here is Hamilton easily stealing vs. lefty Jon Lester. He got such a good jump that there wasn’t even a throw. Hamilton’s steal rates are very similar vs. lefties and righties, so there is not a direct correlation in that regard. The rest of the pitcher data is all for the most part random and implies the same thing: Billy Hamilton is so fast it does not necessarily matter who is pitching.
That said, I would still hesitate to use him vs. pitchers with great pick-off moves, such as Julio Teheran. Let’s take a look at the top five catchers who have allowed the most stolen bases to Hamilton:
Catcher / Steals Against
Russell Martin / 9
Wellington Castillo / 8
Yadier Molina / 7
Francisco Cervelli / 5
Tony Sanchez / 5
Overall, there have been 35 catchers who have allowed Hamilton to steal a base. Again, the thing they all have in common is that they have all played in the NL Central. After looking at Caught Stealing % for each catcher, there is no conclusive data as to which catchers, if any, can stop Hamilton on the bases. After all, Yadier Molina is one of the game’s best catchers, and Hamilton has stolen seven bags from him without getting caught once. Even when Yadi makes a flawless throw to second, Hamilton is still one step ahead of him.
So what have we learned from all this? Well, for one, stealing a base is an art form. I do think the pitcher factors into stolen bases more than the catcher. Players can get predictable reads on pitchers that can lead to a good jump.
Be careful though – pitchers can change it up vs. runners who have continued success against them on the base paths. Different runners also have different freedom levels on the base paths. Hamilton had the ultimate green light in the Minors, as evidenced by his 165 stolen bases in 2012. Every burner has the green light in the Minors though. Same principle applies to old folks having the green light at Golden Corral – they are going to devour everything in sight. Game scenario also plays heavily in steals, as well as being on base vs. relief pitchers whose primary focus is on the batter, not the runner. With all of these factors, predicting stolen bases is incredibly difficult.
Back to Billy Hamilton. What do we do with him? Well, luckily for us, we can use the Player Trends tool to see his optimal matchups. We already know that steals are the main reason anyone would roster him, but as we all know, you can’t steal first base. Hamilton has been awful at getting on base which makes it even more difficult to get your desired points out of him.
Since we need Hamilton to get on base to be worth anything, let’s create a trend using Opponent WHIP Percentile and wOBA Percentile. We can advance this even further by setting his Opponent Pitcher Throws to L, because Hamilton fares better vs. lefties than righties. With these trends set in place, Hamilton has a 1.91 Plus-Minus, which means he scores 1.91 points per game higher than what you’d expected based on his salary. This will give us the best opportunity for Hamilton to perform highly, thus giving him the best opportunity for maximum steals.
Of course, none of this will matter as much if he continues to hit out of the 8-hole. Hopefully the Reds focus on teaching him how to bunt for singles, since he is apparently inept at doing so. Until then, I would caution playing Hamilton, especially in cash games. Hamilton had 35 games last year with no hits and no walks, and is on pace for 33 this year. Our data backs this up as well, as shown below. Hamilton is incredibly inconsistent, so for now, considering all factors, I would only consider view as a tournament player.
