The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Don’t look now, but Russell Westbrook and the Thunder seem to be figuring things out. Westbrook has averaged a Plus/Minus of +14.62 over his past four games, falling just two assists shy of posting four consecutive triple-doubles. He has one of the top matchups of the day against the Orlando Magic, with only two teams allowing a higher Plus/Minus to opposing PGs this season:
The Thunder are currently implied for 108.5 points, which is approximately 6.5 more points than they’ve averaged this season. Even at an elevated salary, it’s going to be tough to fade Westbrook on today’s slate.
Values
Kemba Walker has officially been ruled out for today’s contest, which means that Michael Carter-Williams will draw the start in his place. Carter-Williams is not your average backup PG: He scores 0.92 fantasy points per minute, which makes him a pretty productive player. There’s no guarantee he’ll play a ton of minutes in today’s contest against the Raptors – we currently have him projected for just 26.8 – but he doesn’t need to play much to pay off his current $4,200 salary on DraftKings.
Tim Frazier burned a lot of people yesterday, playing just 15.5 minutes and scoring only 9.25 fantasy points with the Wizards trailing for most of the game. That said, Frazier still figures to be the starting PG with John Wall sidelined, and there will likely be better games in his future. He remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
The Mavericks-Nets matchup tonight pits one of the NBA’s slowest teams against one of the fastest. That results in a massive pace differential (paceD) of +9.4 for Mavericks players, and their implied team total of 107.5 points is more than eight points higher than their season average. Dennis Smith Jr. continues to play only around 28 minutes per game, but he leads the Mavericks with a usage rate of 29.8 percent. DSJ has enjoyed pace-up games early in his young career, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.56 in 10 games with a paceD of at least +4.0:
Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith have the top matchup of the day for PGs, both owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.02 on FanDuel against the Phoenix Suns. The Detroit PG situation is a tough one to figure out on a nightly basis, with Jackson routinely seeing more minutes but Smith remaining a huge threat to eat into his workload. For that reason, both PGs will likely be owned at a minuscule rate despite the elite matchup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden continues to absolute crush on DraftKings:
That said, there are a few causes for concern in today’s matchup with the Indiana Pacers. The first is the increased presence of Chris Paul, who played 31 minutes in the Rockets last game against the Brooklyn Nets. While Harden has made up for it by shooting lights out from the field, Paul has had a sizable impact on both Harden’s usage and assist rate when sharing the court:
Head coach Mike D’Antoni has mitigated these concerns a bit by staggering his rotations, ensuring that both Harden and Paul see a solid chunk of minutes each game without the other. Still, with Paul figuring to play more minutes moving forward, this will remain an issue.
The second cause for concern with Harden is his potential matchup against Victor Oladipo. Oladipo is currently questionable for today’s game, but if he suits up, he could present a challenge to Harden defensively: He ranks ninth among all SGs in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) this season.
Finally, the Rockets are 12-point favorites in today’s matchup, which makes them the largest favorites of the day. That number could go even higher if Oladipo sits, which gives this game some increased blowout potential. Harden remains an elite play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) – especially given his projected ownership of just 13-16 percent on DraftKings – but Westbrook has the clear edge for cash games with his matchup and slightly cheaper salary.
Value
It’s tough to picture what the Hornets offense is going to look like today, but one player who figures to become a larger part of the offense is Nicolas Batum. Batum has played only 15 minutes this season without Walker, but last season he saw the biggest increase in production with Walker off the floor:
Of course, Batum is going through some health issues of his own at the moment, playing just 22 minutes in his last game after sitting out the game prior. He provides a lot of potential upside at just $5,800 on FanDuel, but there’s no guarantee he’ll play enough minutes to fully realize his potential without Walker.
Fast Break
Like his teammate Frazier, Bradley Beal burned a lot of folks yesterday, scoring just 21.0 DraftKings points at roughly 50 percent ownership in GPPs. Jimmy Butler did a really good job of effectively taking him out of the game, limiting Beal to a usage rate of just 21 percent. He should have a much easier go of it today against the Philadelphia 76ers, and Beal will likely see reduced ownership after last night’s clunker.
Devin Booker has been priced down to just $6,900 on FanDuel, which is just too cheap for the kind of offensive production this guy is capable of. He’s coming off a game with 51.6 FanDuel points, so it’s not exactly like he’s slumping at the moment, either. He has a solid matchup today with the Detroit Pistons, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.29.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is currently questionable for today’s contest, but it seems like a return is imminent after he went through a full practice on Tuesday. If he does play, he seems underpriced on DraftKings, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. Historically, Durant has provided solid value when comparably priced:
He has a strong matchup against the Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.80, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 117 points is tied with the Rockets for the top mark on the slate.
Values
Stanley Johnson played 34 minutes in his last game and is dirt-cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Pistons have one of the larger paceD’s of the day at +5.8, and their implied team total of 113.5 ranks third on today’s slate.
Courtney Lee continues to get it done for fantasy owners, owning a Plus/Minus of +7.61 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. Despite the production, his salary has only increased by $500 over that time frame, likely due to the fact that he’s almost never owned at a higher than 10 percent rate. Lee has a strong matchup today against the Heat, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.59.
Fast Break
Maybe a matchup with the Brooklyn Nets will finally get Harrison Barnes some respect in the DFS community. He’s been one of the top fantasy assets over his past 10 games:
The Nets have been smashed by SFs all season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.00 for Barnes on DratKings.
The Nets’ laundry list of injuries is getting even longer, with Allen Crabbe and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson both likely to join D’Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin on the sidelines today. One option who could potentially pick up the offensive slack for them is DeMarre Carroll, who is coming off a game where he played 35 minutes and scored 40.5 DraftKings points. He’s seen the largest usage increase on the team with Crabbe, Russell, and Lin all off the court this season:
Sean Kilpatrick could be another option worth considering for the Nets: He played 28 minutes in their last game and has posted a usage rate of 28 percent with the four injured Nets off the court this season.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis has been priced down to $10,800 on FanDuel for today’s matchup with the Timberwolves, which is the lowest his salary has been since opening night. He’s played poorly recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -3.15 on FanDuel over his past 10 games, but he’s historically provided a lot of value when comparably priced:
Given all the other stars that are available on today’s slate, it’s possible Davis could be overlooked tonight.
While Davis is probably underpriced on FanDuel, Kristaps Porzingis is almost certainly underpriced on DraftKings at just $8,200. His usage rate of 34.1 percent trails only Harden’s on the season, and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81 for today’s matchup with the Heat.
Value
I’m not sure how it happened, but Pascal Siakam appears to be playing Serge Ibaka out of a job in Toronto. Siakam has played at least 29 minutes in four of his past five games and has posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over his past 14 contests. He remains extremely affordable on DraftKings, where his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
With Hollis-Jefferson doubtful for the Nets, Trevor Booker could be in line for a big workload today against the Dallas Mavericks. More minutes against the Mavericks would undoubtedly be a good thing: They rank just 25th in rebound percentage this season.
Carmelo Anthony leads all PFs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.Comparably priced PFs with a similar number of Pro Trends have been strong values historically:
He has a good matchup today against the Orlando Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.26.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins has one of the best matchups of the day at the center position, as he gets to take on the soft interior defense of Karl-Anthony Towns and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Towns ranked dead last among centers last season in DRPM, which contributes to an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.25 on FanDuel in today’s matchup. Cousins has seen his production wane heavily of late, thanks in part to a string of blowouts and tough matchups. As a result, his salary has dropped to $10,900 on FanDuel, which is his lowest price tag since opening night. He remains the dominant force in the Pelicans offense, with his usage rate of 33.7 percent (fourth in the league).
Value
Steven Adams is coming off a terrible game against the Dallas Mavericks, but he looked fantastic in the two games prior, playing at least 37 minutes and scoring over 30 FanDuel points in both. His salary has dropped by a considerable margin on FanDuel thanks to that one poor game, and he should be able to pay off this reduced price tag pretty easily as long as he doesn’t see reduced minutes.
Fast Break
Ben Simmons is currently questionable for today’s game, and if he can’t suit up, look for Joel Embiid to post a massive workload. Embiid carries one of the highest usage rates in the league on a normal basis, but that number has skyrocketed to more than 38 percent without Simmons on the court this season:
Marc Gasol has taken a bit of heat recently, with some suggesting that he’s the reason coach David Fizdale was fired. That could serve as some extra motivation for Gasol, and if that wasn’t enough, he also gets to take on his older brother Pau in today’s contest. If you like to live on #NarrativeStreet, Gasol is your guy today.
There are tons of strong center options on today’s slate – this positional breakdown could go on forever if I touched on every relevant player – but none may present more value on DraftKings than Nikola Vucevic. His $7,300 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, and Vucevic has historically provided excellent value with a comparable price tag:
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
