That’s right. I’m asking the question.
This is the 59th installment of The Labyrinthian, a series dedicated to exploring random fields of knowledge in order to give you unordinary theoretical, philosophical, strategic, and/or often rambling guidance on daily fantasy sports. Consult the introductory piece to the series for further explanation.
I Like My Toast the Way I Like the Cavs — Burnt
One should never write off a team merely because it’s down by two games in a best-of-seven series . . . but LeBron James looks like he’s well on his way to a 2-5 career record in the NBA Finals.
[Insert story here about burnt toast.]Wasn’t that such a good story? And so succinct!
The Cavs are in an 0-2 hole, and, frankly, they’re lucky it’s not 0-3. #NailedIt
In the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors were down by two games, but they were never truly out of the series, because . . .
- They ended up winning the series, so, you know.
- They entered the series as -500 favorites, so because of the strength of this Bayesian prior, their odds of winning were truly never that awful.
But the Cavs are not the Warriors. (Clearly.) The Warriors entered the series as clear favorites with a moneyline around -200. And, after two games, the Cavs look like a team that deserved to be an even bigger underdog.
Do you know what historically happens to significant underdogs when they lose the first two games of a series? Google “Male Lion Eats Warthog Alive” and you’ll get the idea very quickly. (By the way, don’t google “Male Lion Eats Warthog Alive.” It’s disturbing.)
Basically, the Cavs look a lot like burnt toast.
Full Disclosure: I’m Not LeBron’s Biggest Fan
I’m not even his second-biggest fan.
It’s important for me to make this admission, because I don’t want you to think that this consideration of LeBron’s impact on his teammates has anything to do with my personal view on him. I don’t believe that it does. And I freely admit that LeBron’s a great and entertaining player.
Still, I’m not a big fan of his.
I don’t like the way that he left Cleveland in 2010. I don’t particularly like the way that he conducted business with management in the years before he left. I think that he pretty much held the franchise hostage for a few years, with the unstated threat that he might leave, and as a result the franchise made desperate and short-sighted decisions that were probably worse than the bad ones it would’ve made anyway. (After all, we are talking about a team based in Cleveland.)
I don’t like that he left Cleveland after publicly saying that he wouldn’t leave until he won a championship.
I’ll admit it: I don’t like the “Hey, everyone, watch me toss a whole bunch of crushed chalk into the air” ritual. I prefer the simple “I’m just walking onto the court” ritual used by basically every other player in the league, but that’s just me. You can say that other players aren’t LeBron. That’s true. Most of them haven’t led their teams to 4.5 Finals defeats.
I don’t like the way he tried to adopt the villain persona in Miami. It so clearly didn’t suit him. At the same time, I don’t like the way that he returned to Cleveland, acting as if everything was fine now that he was back. You can’t leave your wife for your mistress, live with your mistress for four years, have two kids, and then go back to your wife and act like everything is back to normal.
And I also don’t like the way that he reportedly treats his coaches.
But other than that, I like him.
Is LeBron James Overrated?
He’s not. I’m just asking the question to be somewhat provocative. Per ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus statistic, LeBron is unsurprisingly the best player in the league. His 9.12 RPM dwarfs second-place Steph Curry’s 8.48.
Earlier today, when I was pretending to edit FantasyLabs pieces but was really Skyping with Bryan Mears, this exchange was had:
MF: So if LeBron has the best RPM, it would be hard to argue that he’s not a great teammate or that perhaps his team would be better with someone else who is comparable, right?
BM: For sure.
MF: Well, f*ck.
BM: RPM is supposed to be a catch-all stat, but it’s a little tricky. It’s not meant to be ‘rankings’ of players. It more measures how they perform in their specific roles. For instance, Draymond Green is not a better player than Kawhi Leonard, but according to RPM he is better in his specific role. LeBron’s role is ‘do literally everything’ and he still has the highest RPM in the NBA!
MF: This isn’t helping.
I guess the question is this: If LeBron weren’t taking it upon himself to ‘do literally everything,’ would the Cavs be a better overall team?
Phrased differently: Is his massive presence on the court detrimental to the productivity and efficiency of his teammates and ultimately the potential of his team?
LeBron Might Not Be the Best Player in the NBA — But a Lot of People Assume That He Is
Per ESPN’s Player Efficiency Rating, James has been a great player the last two seasons — but not as good as Curry, Russell Westbrook, and Kevin Durant. And last year Anthony Davis, James Harden, and Chris Paul also topped him in PER.
This year, Curry has a league-high 27.6 Estimated Wins Added. LeBron has 23.1 EWA — as does Harden, who’s a great player . . . but it doesn’t seem ‘right’ that he’s on the same level with LeBron, does it?
LeBron and Harden: A Detour
That LeBron and Harden have the same EWA is surely coincidence . . . but it’s also evocative. Is LeBron really bringing to the Cavs anything different than what Harden brings to the Rockets?
LeBron does everything . . . but doesn’t that just kind of mean that he’s a ball hog? And doesn’t Harden ‘do everything’ for his team? I mean, Harden doesn’t even apologize for being a ball hog. Is he that dissimilar from LeBron?
Per ESPN’s Value Added metric, this season LeBron scored 692.9 points above replacement. Harden? 693.1. This might be blasphemous to say, but in 2016 James Harden was basically LeBron James minus three inches and 30 pounds.
What does that say about LeBron?
I might be wrong, but Harden strikes me as more a stats accumulator than a championship winner. Phrased differently: Harden doesn’t elevate his teammates and thus his team. Instead, he elevates himself.
Is LeBron really that different? Does he elevate his teammates? I mean, would he still be the ringless King James if he hadn’t driven from Cleveland to Miami, knocked on Dwyane Wade’s front door, invited himself in, and asked the kingmaker to give him a throne?
I’m an Impertinent *sshole
I know that I sound harsh, but if LeBron is the most dominant player of his generation . . . and if the Cavs lose this series to the Warriors . . . then LeBron’s 2-5 Finals record will almost certainly mean something.
Maybe it will only mean that LeBron has been surrounded by subpar coaches and teammates for most of his career (although that could also mean something). And maybe it will mean that his five losing Finals teams played against unusually stout competition. And maybe it will mean that randomness caused LeBron to miss out on maybe two championships that he should’ve won.
But I doubt it.
More likely, it will mean that there’s something inherent in LeBron’s style of play that enhances both his ability to dominate statistically and his odds of losing against cohesive teams — especially if he’s not teammates with exceptional players who can elevate their games without his help.
Basically, it’s conceivable that a player like Jim Kelly (playing football) can lose four championships. It’s not very conceivable that a player like LeBron (playing basketball) can lose four (and maybe five) championships — especially when he had two other superstars with him on four of his Finals trips.
Ultimately, I expect that LeBron’s 2-4.5 Finals record isn’t the result of randomness. It means something. It probably means that, given his abilities and stature, he isn’t as good for his teams — and teammates — as we’d expect him to be.
One Paragraph (and Then One More Sentence) Via Taleb
One thing that I love about Nassim Nicholas Taleb is that observations and facts are primary and explanations and theories are secondary. It’s clear that LeBron’s Finals career hasn’t gone as many people would expect. I theorize that the shortcoming might have to do with LeBron. Right now, the prevalent methods of analyzing basketball might suggest that it has to do with everything except LeBron. Of course, it’s very possible that in 20 years new methods of basketball analysis will exist and they will suggest, as Occam’s razor might suggest, that LeBron’s Finals record mostly has to do with LeBron.
And that’s why observations and facts are more important than explanations and theories, which are sexier but not nearly as certain.
Is This a DFS Article?
Does it need to be a DFS article?
Here’s a DFS application, if that’s the kind of thing you care about: From a DFS perspective, LeBron is undeniably bad for his team and teammates. That has been the case for at least the last two seasons. It has probably been the case for longer. It will probably be the case in 2016-17. The LeBron taketh, not giveth.
Here I come with the quadruple-double, courtesy of our free Trends tool . . . which reminds me . . .
2014-15: DraftKings
Baseline: +0.24 Plus/Minus
LeBron: +1.27
Cavaliers: -1.08
His Teammates: -1.31
2014-15: FanDuel
Baseline: +0.29
LeBron: +1.83
Cavaliers: -0.61
His Teammates: -0.85
2015-16: DraftKings
Baseline: +0.76
LeBron: +4.54
Cavaliers: +0.00
His Teammates: -0.47
2015-16: FanDuel
Baseline: +1.07
LeBron: +4.35
Cavaliers: +0.50
His Teammates: +0.09
2016-17
Baseline: Doesn’t Matter
LeBron: The King Takes What He Wants
Cavaliers: F*cked
His Teammates: More F*cked
You know how the saying goes: As it is in fantasy, so is it in reality.
It’s a Good Job If You Can Get It
In DFS — and I suspect also in ‘real life’ — even the best player in a professional sports league can be the cause of negative value for his team as a whole as well as his teammates.
It’s great to be the King. It’s just not great to live in his kingdom.
———
The Labyrinthian: 2016, 59
Previous installments of The Labyrinthian can be accessed via my author page. If you have suggestions on material I should know about or even write about in a future Labyrinthian, please contact me via email, [email protected], or Twitter @MattFtheOracle.
