If you hadn’t noticed, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been pretty darn good. Their 12-6 record is tops in the NL Central, and one of the main reasons they’ve gotten there is because of their ace, Jameson Taillon.
On paper, Taillon has been great. Through three starts, he’s 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA to go along with an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of +9.64. The highlight, of course, was his one-hit shutout against the Reds in which he posted 40.85 fantasy points.
Tonight he heads to Philadelphia to play the also-surprising 10-7 Phillies. At $11,100, Taillon is the stud pitcher of the night and one of just three pitchers on DraftKings to boast a price tag of $8,000 or higher on the short five-game slate. Is he worth paying up for or should you spread your money around elsewhere?
Batted-Ball Luck
Given the tiny slate and lack of other options, some folks may have no choice but to roster him. However, you should be aware that pitchers in his situation haven’t been the most productive historically.
First, I’d like to let the record show that Taillon has been very lucky this season. He’s a great young pitcher but not this great. He’s achieved that sub-1.00 ERA thanks to loads of batted-ball luck.
Opponents have posted a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .150 this season against Taillon, which is the fourth-lowest of any qualified pitcher. When runners have gotten on base, Taillon has been even luckier, as batters are hitting a minuscule .071 when they put the ball into play.
In the rare instance in which runners have gotten into scoring position against Taillon this year, hitters are 0-for-7, which is a .000 average to the layperson.
That’s how you manage an ERA under 1.00 despite not being a big strikeout guy, which Taillon is most certainly not. And that is perhaps the most important thing to note in our case. Taillon is not going to push for double-digit Ks every fifth day. In fact, in 46 career starts, Taillon has zero games with 10 strikeouts.
Limited Strikeout Upside
Obviously, punching guys out is one of the biggest keys of being a stud pitcher on DraftKings. Taillon has seen his price rise into stud territory this season, but I’d argue undeservedly so.
Here is how pitchers who strike out less than a batter per inning have done when their price tag has gone up by at least $2,000 over the past month.
Since strikeouts are perhaps the most predictive stat for a pitcher, it isn’t surprising to see that pitchers who aren’t strikeout-heavy have trouble performing up to the elevated price tag. This works on a sliding scale, as we see pitchers perform worse and worse the lower their K/9 mark:
- K/9 of 8 or less: -1.34 Plus/Minus, 46.1% Consistency
- K/9 of 7 or less: -1.69 Plus/Minus, 45.5% Consistency
- K/9 of 6 or less: -2.28 Plus/Minus, 35.5% Consistency
Balls in play can do any number of things, and it’s quite rare to see a player get lucky like Taillon has for an extended period of time. As the season goes on, it’s likely Taillon will have average luck, which means that his price tag will fall back to earth in due time.
Pictured above: Jameson Taillon
Photo credit: Charles LeClaire – USA TODAY Sports
