The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Seven teams are implied to score 3.0 or more goals, so there should be no shortage of offense from the high-end options.
Center
- Sidney Crosby @ Buffalo: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,600
- John Tavares vs. Ottawa: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,300
- Mark Scheifele vs. Las Vegas: DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $7,900
- Brayden Schenn vs. Los Angeles: DraftKings – $6,600, FanDuel – $7,300
- Jack Eichel vs. Pittsburgh: DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $7,000
Winger
- Vladimir Tarasenko vs. Los Angeles: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,500
- Taylor Hall @ Colorado: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $7,200
- Phil Kessel @ Buffalo: DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $8,100
- Blake Wheeler vs. Las Vegas: DraftKings – $6,900, FanDuel – $7,600
Defense
- Brent Burns @ Florida: DraftKings – $6,800, FanDuel – $6,600
- Erik Karlsson @ NY Islanders: DraftKings – $6,600, FanDuel – $6,700
- Alex Pietrangelo vs. Los Angeles: DraftKings – $6,300, FanDuel – $5,900
- Kris Letang @ Buffalo: DraftKings – $6,200, FanDuel – $6,600
Wheeler and Scheifele carry a ton of upside, placing in the 98th percentile in points, but their floors are low for cash games (relative to their salaries) with 85th and 57th percentile marks in shots+blocks. The Jets have the slate’s highest implied total at 3.6 goals and face a Golden Knights team that has allowed the second-most goals over the past month.
If you’re fading the Winnipeg studs, there is no shortage of alternative directions to pay up. Crosby (96 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating) and the Penguins, even on the road are more than a little interesting on three days rest facing a Buffalo team allowing the fourth-most goals this year. Pittsburgh has drawn the second-most penalties this year, but keep in mind that Buffalo is a disciplined team that has taken the fifth-fewest penalties this year. When the Penguins second-ranked power play does take the ice, it’s not a great matchup, as the Sabres own the third-highest penalty kill percentage at home.
This may not be the spot to pay up for St. Louis, but days after failing in a pristine matchup against Anaheim on Wednesday, the Blues could come at lower ownership against Los Angeles. It is, though, a significantly tougher matchup against a Kings team that has allowed the second-fewest goals, and the Blues own a middling Corsi-For expectation.
The top-end defensemen all have their wrinkles recently, but in general paying up for defensemen and consistent peripheral stats is a strong strategy in cash games. Unsurprisingly, Burns leads the way, placing in the 97th percentile in shots+blocks over the past month. Letang stands out as one of the top ways to get exposure to the Penguins. Over the last year he falls in the 95th percentile or higher in shots+blocks per game, time on ice (TOI), and power play points.
Values
With lineup construction clearly favoring a stars-and-scrubs approach tonight, let’s spend a bit more time than usual on identifying some ways to save salary.
Shea Theodore (DraftKings – $3,900, FanDuel – $3,500): Theodore was relegated to the AHL earlier in the season not because of his lack of talent but because of the many one-way contract restrictions for Las Vegas after the expansion draft. With 11 points in eight games in the minors, Theodore should now be firmly back in the fold and is clearly underpriced relative to his peripheral stats and role on the first power-play unit. No power play skater priced below $4,200 on DraftKings has averaged more shots+blocks per game over the past month among tonight’s options.
Patrik Berglund (DraftKings – $3,500, FanDuel – $3,600): With the Blues implied total just outside the top tier, Berglund is intriguing, ranking in the 93rd percentile or higher in shots, power play shots, and shots+blocks over the past month. He could offer a leverage opportunity off of a popular St. Louis PP1 and also a ton of safety with his peripheral stats.
Tim Heed (DraftKings – $3,300, FanDuel – $3,600): On the theme of leveraging ownership and value from a team’s PP1, Heed is a good option if Burns is too pricey for your liking. A forward-turned-defenseman on the Sharks’ second power-play line, Heed excels on the man advantage (97th percentile in power-play shots), and Florida owns the fourth-worst penalty-kill percentage in the league (75.6 percent). Heed also has a solid peripheral floor, ranking in the 90th percentile in shots+blocks per game over the past month.
Nick Bjugstad (DraftKings – $3,600, FanDuel – $3,900): With a middling 2.8 implied goal total, Florida will likely be underowned against the Sharks, but Bjugstad could be a unique path to jamming in some studs. Categorized as a winger on DraftKings and a center on FanDuel, Bjugstad ranks in the 95th percentile in shots over the past month, leading all power-play skaters priced under $4,500 on either platform.
Nail Yakupov (DraftKings – $3,200, FanDuel – $4,100): With a 96 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating, he has an egregious $3,200 price tag, given that he’s slated to play on the Avalanche top line with MacKinnon and Rantanen today. The 2012 first-overall pick of the Edmonton Oilers has largely busted, averaging 0.41 points per game since he entered the league, but he’s a speedy forward with decent offensive skill. He’s quite a bit riskier than the options above, placing in the 22nd percentile in shots+blocks, but he carries some upside in tournaments in the 90th percentile in goals over the past month.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
There are some correlation concerns at even strength, but the Penguins should do enough of their damage on the power play in this game for the PP1 stack to be in play for tournaments. Pittsburgh owns the fifth-highest Corsi-For expectation and the highest matchup rating on the slate.
Typically, wingers block far fewer shots than defensemen and centermen. That’s part of what makes players like Hornqvist (83rd percentile among skaters in blocks over the past month) an incredibly valuable way to gain cheap exposure to the studs on Pittsburgh. Of power play wingers, only Boone Jenner has more blocks per game over the past month than Hornqvist.
Note: Evgeni Malkin (DraftKings: $6,800, FanDuel: $8,000) took part in morning skate and is probable for tonight’s contest. He could be a strong pivot if he sees lower ownership coming back from injury.
With the highest goal expectation on the slate, Winnipeg rates as one of our highest four-man stacks on FanDuel.
Despite ranking in the 87th percentile in shots over the past month, Connor is still underpriced at $4,400 on FanDuel with a 97 percent Bargain Rating. With a massive implied total of 3.6 goals the Jets could be chalky, but (per our Trends tool) power play skaters with comparable Vegas data have historically provided a +2.16 Plus/Minus and 51.2 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel.
Implied totals are often inflated for teams facing the Golden Knights, but it’s notable that they are middle of the pack or better defensively in goals against, power play goals allowed, and Corsi-Allowed.
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, which is why ownership tends to mirror Vegas moneylines:
- Columbus -204 vs. Anaheim
- Winnipeg -201 vs. Las Vegas
- NY Islanders -165 vs. Ottawa
- St. Louis -156 vs. Los Angeles
If you’re looking to drill deeper into favorable possibilities, it could be wise to check out our new save prediction metric. It takes into account a multitude of things, such as: the opposing team’s average shots; the team’s average shots allowed; and the player’s goals against average. Here are today’s top four options that have already been confirmed or are expected as starters:
- John Gibson, Anaheim @ Columbus (DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel – $8,300): 36.1 saves
- Henrik Lundqvist, NY Rangers vs. Carolina (DraftKings – $8,100, FanDuel – $8,700): 34.32 saves
- Roberto Luongo, Florida vs. San Jose (DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $7,800): 33.21 saves
Lundqvist checks a lot of boxes for cash games tonight. He is a home favorite expected to see a large number of shots playing for a team that has the third-highest Corsi-Against over the past month, and he’s facing a Carolina team with a bottom-five goal expectation. However, he is also the second-most expensive option on DraftKings at a position where it historically makes sense to pay down.
Gibson is especially cheap on DraftKings – his 87 percent Bargain Rating leads the slate – and he offers a solid peripheral floor at a discount even as a +183 dog. At a position with a ton of variance, you can gain a huge edge on the field in tournaments by rostering a low-owned goalie as a road dog, especially if they allow more flexibility in lineup construction and they steal an unlikely win.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
