The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
The Maple Leafs are currently implied to score 3.4 goals. No other teams are implied for more than 2.9, but there’s still plenty of high-end options in play:
Center
- Connor McDavid vs. Philadelphia: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $8,900
- Auston Matthews vs. Calgary: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $7,900
- Sean Monahan @ Toronto: DraftKings – $6,900, FanDuel – $7,500
Winger
- Patrick Kane @ Washington: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,200
- Alex Ovechkin vs. Chicago: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,700
- Johnny Gaudreau @ Toronto: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $7,800
Defense
- Erik Karlsson @ Anaheim: DraftKings – $6,700, FanDuel – $6,600
- John Carlson vs. Chicago: DraftKings – $5,900, FanDuel – $5,700
Matthews, who’s the top-rated center on the slate in the psufans2 Pro Model, has a fantastic matchup tonight against a Calgary team allowing the most goals against per game (3.85) on the slate over the past month. One thing to consider: The Flames are the only team all season to hold Matthews shotless in a game (November 28th). Regardless Matthews’ elite peripheral stats (94th percentile shots + blocks over the past) make him a safer play. Matthews is fine to roll out naked in cash games, but he is exceedingly difficult to stack effectively for tournaments, skating on the second line with Zach Hyman (not on the power play) and Connor Brown (20th percentile shots + blocks).
For those fading Matthews, it may be wise to pay up in that same game, focusing instead on Calgary skaters at reduced ownership. Monahan and Gaudreau boast an impressive 0.45 correlation coefficient in Models, and the Flames own the highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate against a Maple Leafs team allowing the fifth-most shots against this year. Another wrinkle to consider: Monahan and Gaudreau do most of their damage on the power play – ranking in the 98th percentile or higher in points on the man advantage over the past month – and Toronto has the fourth-worst penalty-kill percentage (73.8 percent) at home this season.
It’s hard to justify paying up for McDavid when Ovechkin dwarfs him in recent peripheral stats:
McDavid is a generational talent who carries as much upside as anyone, but unless he starts shooting more, he’ll continue to have a lower floor than his high salary may indicate.
Values
Gustav Forsling (DraftKings – $3,400, FanDuel – $3,600): Forsling could offer a leverage opportunity off of the Chicago PP1, but also a ton of safety in regards to peripheral stats. He ranks in the 95th percentile in shots + blocks over the past month, third-highest of any skater on today’s slate.
Matt Niskanen (DraftKings – $3,300, FanDuel – $4,300): Skating on the Capitals’ second power-play unit (PP2), Niskanen may not offer cheap exposure or correlation to Ovechkin, but he’s firmly in punt consideration on a Washington team implied for the second-most goals today. Niskanen ranks in the 91st percentile in shots + blocks and his 97 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings leads all defensemen.
One-Timers
Jakub Voracek (DraftKings – $6,700, FanDuel – $7,900): Voracek has the peripheral stats (99th percentile in shots) and upside (99th percentile in points) to break things wide open. He’s hard to trust in cash games as the Flyers boast the third-lowest implied total on the slate, but in tournaments, he’s certainly worth a flier against an Edmonton team with the third-highest Goals-Against on the slate over the past month.
Morgan Rielly (DraftKings – $5,000, FanDuel – $4,700): Of all Toronto skaters, only Matthews has more shots + blocks per game over the past month than Rielly (91st percentile). At $4,700 on FanDuel, he can provide both salary relief and a strong peripheral floor, as well as access to the Toronto PP1. Defensemen at comparable salaries, implied totals, and peripheral stats have historically averaged a +1.54 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 57.6 percent Consistency Rating.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the first power play unit of Washington Capitals paired with their goaltender:
The Capitals own the third-highest goal and fantasy-point expectation of any team in the slate, but could still go under-owned with the public gravitating toward Toronto’s high implied total. Backstrom is a criminally underrated playmaker – who never stands out from a peripheral stats perspective. He has a strong 0.33 correlation coefficient with Ovechkin. Chicago has allowed the 12th-most power play opportunities and Washington’s conversion rate (21.7 percent) is second-highest on the slate.
We’ve talked extensively on NHL Inside the Lab about the value in adding a goaltender to your stacks. Intuitively, if the fantasy points expectation is favorable, it makes sense that the goalie on the same team could be in a good spot to accrue a win. Of teams on today’s slate, Washington has the fourth-highest Corsi-Allowed over the past month and has allowed the second-fewest goals. The Blackhawks have the second-highest Corsi-For over that same time period.
With the highest implied total on the slate, Toronto rates highly on both sites, but on FanDuel, the PP1 is a much better value:
Kadri, Marner, and Rielly all own a FanDuel Bargain Rating of 88 percent or higher and have the pleasure of facing the Flames abysmal penalty kill, which ranks fourth-worst in the NHL. Kadri and van Riemsdyk don’t offer a ton of safety, ranking in the 46th and 81st percentile of shots + blocks, respectively. However, each fall in the 88th percentile or better in points over the past month. Marner’s 0.51 correlation coefficient with van Riemsdyk is definitely appealing in tournament stacks, and he carries upside (89th percentile in power-play shots).
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, which is why ownership tends to mirror Vegas moneylines:
- Toronto -150 vs. Calgary
- Washington -128 vs. Chicago
If you’re looking to drill deeper into favorable possibilities, it could be wise to check out our new save prediction metric. It takes into account a multitude of things, such as: the opposing team’s average shots; the team’s average shots allowed; and the player’s goals against average. Here are today’s top-three options, all of whom have already been confirmed or are expected as starters:
- Frederik Andersen, Toronto vs. Calgary (DraftKings – $8,200, FanDuel – $8,600): 33.53 saves
- Ryan Miller, Anaheim vs. Ottawa (DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $8,000): 33.11 saves
- Bryan Elliott, Philadelphia @ Edmonton (DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $7,700): 31.15 saves
Paying down at goaltender is usually optimal, but Anderson is in the most favorable position today with the highest save prediction and skating for the “largest” favorite. Toronto has the slate’s second-highest Corsi-Against over the past month and Calgary has the highest Corsi-For. Don’t overthink it.
Braden Holtby will start for the Capitals, but he’s expensive (DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $9,100). We already talked about him as a potential stacking candidate, as Holtby could serve as a natural price pivot off of Anderson, but his save prediction is nothing special.
In tournaments, Elliot could offer a ton of leverage at a discount with the third-highest save prediction as a slight +111 dog. At a position with a ton of variance, you can gain a huge edge on the field by rostering a low-owned goalie who will see a ton of shots, especially if he steals an unlikely win.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
