Last week’s premiere rushing performances included yet another big day from Ezekiel Elliott in a rainstorm, LeSean McCoy running all over the Raiders in Buffalo, and Melvin Gordon telling all his yards-per-carry haters to eat it courtesy of an 87-yard touchdown run. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Doug Martin) vs. New Orleans Saints
Martin hasn’t had the most electric return to action, but he’s at least secured the featured role in the Buccaneers’ backfield. Overall, Martin has received at least 14 touches in all four games he’s been active this season, while racking up an average of 20.5 touches per game over the past two weeks. He’s yet to surpass 75 rushing yards in a game, but he ranks among PlayerProfiler’s top-20 backs in both Juke Rate and Breakaway Run Rate; he’s making the most of his opportunities. Martin joins Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles as the only active backs with multiple seasons of 1,400-plus rushing yards, and he’s demonstrated the same blend of vision, power, and ankle-breaking ability that caused the Buccaneers to hand him his job back after a four-game suspension:
The Buccaneers have faced top-12 defenses in rush DVOA during each of the past three weeks. Now the offense should not only benefit from playing in the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, but also from facing the league’s fourth-worst defense in rush DVOA. The Bucs’ offensive line is better at pass blocking than run blocking, but Ali Marpet and Demar Dotson — PFF’s No. 7 overall center and No. 1 tackle, respectively — are more than capable of taking on the Saints’ underwhelming defensive line. They rank among the bottom-three units in the league in both average yards per carry allowed and 20-plus yard runs through eight weeks. Cameron Jordan is the only starter in the front seven ranked among the top-25 players at their position against the run, and Martin will look to become the sixth running back this season to clear 15 DraftKings points against the Saints.
Dallas Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Second Circuit Court has granted Elliott a temporary stay of his suspension, so he’ll suit up Sunday against the Chiefs. The Cowboys have had no qualms about feeding Zeke a massive workload while they have him, as he’s racked up 26-plus rushes in three consecutive weeks. Both Elliott and the offensive line have improved their efficiency after a rough start, as he’s averaging 4.69 yards per rush over the past three games compared to 3.64 yards per carry from Weeks 1-4. Overall, the offensive line is averaging the fifth-most adjusted line yards per rush and ranks among the top-four teams in fewest percentage of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. New left guard Jonathan Cooper and right tackle La’el Collins have certainly had their struggles in pass protection, but PFF has graded both players among the top half at their positions in run blocking.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed the third-most adjusted line yards per rush. Nobody has given up more second-level yards per carry, and they’ve allowed at least 140 rushing yards in three of their last four games. The Cowboys/Chiefs game has the slate’s highest Vegas total, so Elliott could have chances to add to his seven rush attempts inside the five-yard line (tied for fourth among all running backs). Be sure to monitor our industry-leading News Feed to stay on top of latest developments in Elliott’s never-ending legal battle.
Atlanta Falcons (Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) vs. Carolina Panthers
It seemed like the Falcons had decided to fully feature the league’s highest-paid back prior to their Week 5 bye, but, alas, the Freeman-Coleman committee appears here to stay:
It’s tough to say whether Freeman has taken Coleman’s receiving role or if it’s just a small sample size. Either way: Expect both backs to split work in perpetuity. With neither back guaranteed for 15-plus touches, it’s a troubling spot, as both Freeman and Coleman have suffered from negative home/away splits away from the Georgia Dome Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
While the Falcons have been a top-four offense in DVOA when rushing up the middle this season, the Panthers have the personnel with all-world linebacker Luke Kuechly and PFF’s No. 9 overall interior defender Kawann Short to cause problems in that area. Overall, the Panthers are allowing just 3.8 yards per rush and rank among the top-eight defenses in both fewest rushing touchdowns and runs of 20-plus yards allowed this season.
Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Mixon) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars boast the league’s No. 1 overall defense in DVOA, but the disparity between their rush defense (No. 32) and pass defense (No. 1) would seemingly indicate they’re vulnerable on the ground. The presence of Marcell Dareus should help plenty in this department; his name was being tossed around with J.J. Watt and Ndamukong Suh as one of the best interior defenders in the league not too long ago. Those days may be gone, but Dareus isn’t being asked to be a one-man wrecking crew anymore: He just needs to fill his role as an overqualified run-stuffing tackle.
Adding to the Bengals’ laundry list of issues vs. the Jaguars is one of the fastest linebacker groups in the league. They’re headlined by Telvin Smith, PFF’s No. 2 linebacker against the run, who could have even more room to track down opposing ball carriers with Dareus occupying additional blockers:
Even if Dareus isn’t seamlessly integrated into the front seven, the Bengals’ 30th-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence in Mixon and company. Mixon has averaged 16.2 touches over his past five games but still surrenders a handful of snaps to Jeremy Hill per contest, and Giovani Bernard continues to be involved in the passing game. Mixon ranks among the bottom-15 backs in the league in both yards after contact per rush and percentage of runs for 15-plus yards.
Honorable Mentions
- New Orleans Saints (Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ingram has averaged 21.66 rushes and 5.33 targets in three games without Adrian Peterson, while Kamara has gone for nine carries and 4.33 targets per game during that span. Both backs are firmly in play with a slate-high implied total of 29.25 points against the Buccaneers’ 25th-ranked defense in DVOA to running backs.
- Los Angeles Rams (Todd Gurley) vs. New York Giants: Gurley is one of very few true workhorses in the league and finds himself in an exploitable spot against a Giants run defense that has allowed 100-plus yards in six of seven games this season. Handling Damon Harrison, PFF’s No. 1 interior defender against the run this season, is easier said than done, but the Rams have managed to consistently move the ball through the middle of defenses, as they’ve averaged a league-high 5.12 adjusted yards per attempt up the middle and over the guards through eight weeks.
- Kansas City Chiefs (Kareem Hunt) vs. Dallas Cowboys: After averaging an absurd 8.5 yards per carry, +18.08 Plus/Minus, and 34.6 DraftKings PPG during the first three games of his career, Hunt has fallen back to earth and averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt, -5.52 Plus/Minus, and 15.64 DraftKings PPG over the past five weeks (per our Trends tool). Still, he’s set up well for a rebound game against the league’s third-worst defense in rush DVOA, although the Cowboys have posted -7.62 point and -36.17 rush yard differentials with Sean Lee in the lineup since 2015. Hunt is the highest-rated running back in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Leonard Fournette) vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Fournette (ankle, probable) has practiced fully this week (per our Injury Dashboard) and is expected to suit up Sunday. He’s emerged as a matchup-proof back thanks to his bruising running style and 20-plus carries per game, but the Bengals have managed to limit fantasy-friendly plays from opposing running backs this season: They’re one of just two defenses to allow three or fewer rushing touchdowns and only one rush of 20-plus yards this season. T.J. Yeldon is also expected to be active for just the second time all season, and it remains to be seen if he’ll cut into Fournette’s or Chris Ivory‘s workload.
