Last week’s premiere rushing performances included continued excellence from workhorses Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and LeVeon Bell, a return to form in Buffalo from LeSean McCoy, and surprisingly-electric days from Aaron Jones and T.J. Yeldon. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
Featured
Philadelphia Eagles (LeGarrette Blount) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Seemingly everyone is onboard the #WentzWagon these days, but Blount has enjoyed a pretty great year himself, averaging a career-high 5.0 yards per carry and proving he’s capable of producing outside of New England. The way he’s gone about picking up yards has been most impressive, as he’s averaged a league-high 4.33 yards after contact per rush and is PFF’s No. 1 back in Elusive Rating. Of course, Blount’s version of ‘elusiveness’ is a bit unique . . .
Blount’s lack of receiving prowess has limited him to just 32.3 percent of the Eagles’ snaps this season, but he’s still managed to rack up at least 14 carries in five of seven games. His outlook is enhanced with his status as a 13-point home favorite, as Blount has averaged 15.7 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a +3.64 Plus/Minus and 71.4 percent Consistency Rating in his seven games as a double-digit favorite since 2014.
The matchup isn’t too shabby either against a 49ers defense that’s allowed 115-plus rushing yards in five of seven games this season. Per PFF’s Scott Barrett, the top-scoring fantasy running backs in PPR since 2016 are David Johnson, Bell, Kareem Hunt, and RB1s vs. the 49ers. The loss of Jason Peters (PFF’s No. 2 overall tackle) undoubtedly hurts, but the 49ers lack the power outside of DeForest Buckner (PFF’s No. 2 overall interior defender) to truly halt an Eagles offense that has scored 26-plus points in five consecutive games and is currently implied to score a slate-high 30 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell) vs. Detroit Lions
Bell’s production has gotten back to its usual astronomical levels after a confounding first three weeks of the season:
Thirty-plus touches per game makes his $9,300 price tag on DraftKings easier to swallow, and his matchup should remove any lingering doubts about the Steelers’ rushing attack. The loss of run-stopping tackle Haloti Ngata (biceps, IR) is huge, as the Lions have allowed 130.3 rushing yards per game in six games without Ngata since 2015 compared to just 102.9 yards per game in 32 games with him. Overall, they’ve allowed 28-plus points in four of their six games without Ngata, an issue that should only be amplified by David DeCastro – PFF’s No. 1 guard through seven weeks.
Also working in Bell’s favor is his quarterback’s severe home/away splits, which haven’t affected Bell at all considering he’s averaged more DraftKings PPG on the road since 2014. He’s the highest-projected back in our Pro Models.
Los Angeles Chargers (Melvin Gordon) vs. New England Patriots
Gordon is averaging a career-low 3.4 yards per carry, was scolded by head coach Anthony Lynn for failing to score from the one-yard line on four consecutive runs against the Broncos last week, and played fewer than 40 snaps for just the third time all season. What makes that last figure significant is that Gordon played an average of 36.5 snaps per game over Weeks 1-4 compared to a ridiculous 58 snaps per game in Weeks 5-6. The difference was the presence of Branden Oliver, who has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Sunday, but last Sunday the offense turned to backup Austin Ekeler, who played 31 percent of the team’s snaps and managed to equal Gordon’s rushing total on 11 fewer carries.
It’s hard to pencil in Gordon as a weekly go-to option when he’s not being fed the ball. He’s averaged 30 touches per game as the Chargers’ featured RB1 but just 17.2 per game when Oliver or Ekeler get involved. Adding to Gordon’s troublesome outlook is the loss of starting guard Matt Slauson (bicep, IR), who could have come in handy against the Patriots’ pair of 320-pound tackles in Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown. The Patriots defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game in three consecutive weeks after giving up an average of 32 points in Weeks 1-4. Gordon won’t get much help from an offensive line with every member ranked outside of the top-25 run-blocking players at their position this season (PFF).
Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Mixon) vs. Indianapolis Colts
It seemed like Mixon had finally seized control of the Bengals’ backfield after racking up 15-plus carries per game in Weeks 3-5. Instead, head coach Marvin Lewis stressed Mixon “should show maturity” when he was understandably disappointed with his zero second-half carries last Sunday despite averaging 6.9 yards on seven carries through the first two quarters. Lewis continues to insist on Jeremy Hill starting each half, and Giovani Bernard‘s 23 snaps last Sunday were his most since Week 2. Just like the aforementioned Chargers’ offensive line, the Bengals don’t have a single starting lineman graded among PFF’s top-25 run-blocking players at their position through seven weeks.
A movable force meets a stoppable object this Sunday, as a Bengals offense with one rushing touchdown on the season faces a Colts defense that has allowed a league-high 10 scores on the ground. Edge rusher John Simon (stinger, doubtful) will be missed, but Jabaal Sheard and Johnathan Hankins are capable of picking up the slack at home against the league’s third-worst offense in yards per carry and adjusted line yards.
Honorable Mentions
- Chicago Bears (Jordan Howard) vs. New Orleans Saints: Other than Bell, Howard has paced all players in touches over the past four weeks while providing enough wiggle to help the Bears rank among the top-10 offenses in both average second-level and open-field yards per rush. Tackle Charles Leno and guard Josh Sitton are each top-five players at their position in run blocking, and the Bears get an exploitable matchup at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football against a Saints defense that has allowed 115-plus rushing yards in four of six games this season.
- Dallas Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) vs. Washington Redskins: The Redskins allowed their second-highest rushing total (127 yards) of the season during their first game without first-round pick Jonathan Allen (foot, IR). The Cowboys lead the NFL with 205.7 rushing yards per game since Week 4 thanks to Elliott’s turnaround, as he averaged 3.49 yards per carry with one total touchdown during his first three games before picking up 4.58 yards per rush with five scores over his past three outings. Elliott enters a game with perhaps the most shootout potential on the entire slate, as the Cowboys-Redskins’ matchup currently has a week-high Vegas total of 50 points.
- Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy) vs. Oakland Raiders: Shady finally found the end zone last week – and had such a good time he went back for seconds. With five-plus receptions in all but one game this season, McCoy has one of the highest floors in the league while getting a very friendly second-half schedule. The Raiders boast the league’s fifth-worst defense in DVOA and don’t have a single starter in the front seven (other than All-World edge defender Khalil Mack) graded among the top-40 overall players at their position by PFF this season.
- Oakland Raiders (DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard) vs. Buffalo Bills: With Marshawn Lynch suspended, there’s one less mouth to feed in a Raiders backfield averaging just 92.9 rushing yards per game this season. Washington and Richard are expected to split reps, although Washington held an edge in carries (19 vs. 12) and snaps (69 vs. 37) in two games Latavius Murray missed with the Raiders last season. Richard and Washington are averaging 1.4 and 3.1 fewer yards per carry than they did in 2016, and, while it’s a limited sample size, things won’t be any easier against the league’s seventh-best defense in DVOA against the run headlined by Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson – PFF’s No. 2 and No. 8 edge defenders against the run.
