Last week saw a turnover-fueled shootout in the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, near perfection from Carson Palmer and Deshaun Watson, as well as gritty road wins from the entire 2004 class of first-round quarterbacks (save for J.P. Losman). Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees) vs. Green Bay Packers
Through five games, Brees is currently besting his career-averages in adjusted yards per attempt and completion percentage. Even at 38-years-old, this is the same quarterback – especially when the Saints can keep him clean. Even with starting left tackle Terron Armstead making his season debut just last week, the offensive line has managed to post the third-best pass-blocking efficiency score as a unit. Brees is one of only three quarterbacks to throw over 75 percent of his passes not under pressure, a credit to both his quick release and offensive line. While Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are making their presence felt in the run game, the Saints have still called the 10th-most pass plays in the league this season.
Brees is certainly at his best in New Orleans, but his struggles on the road are mostly overstated from a fantasy standpoint:
- Home per-game averages since 2014: 333 passing yards, 8.05 yards per attempt, 2.42 touchdowns, 0.85 interceptions, 24.96 DraftKings PPG
- Away: 296.08 yards, 7.37 Y/A, 1.88 TDs, 0.85 INTs, 20.11 PPG
Which quarterback isn’t better in a dome? Brees is more than capable of taking advantage of a Packers defense allowing the second-most DraftKings PPG with a +2.7 Plus/Minus and 60 percent Consistency Rating to quarterbacks since the beginning of last season. The Packers defense ranks in the middle of the pack in adjusted sack rate and pass DVOA, but just one starter (defensive tackle Mike Daniels) in their front seven is graded among the top-30 pass-rushing players at his position by Pro Football Focus (PFF). Brees is an expensive investment with the second- and fourth-highest salaries on DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s main slate, respectively, but his upside is clear with the second-highest projected ceiling on either site in our Pro Models.
Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Through six weeks, Goff and the Rams lead the league in scoring with 29.8 points per game. Goff has scored 18-plus DraftKings points in three games against pass defenses ranked 23rd or lower in DVOA but hasn’t cracked 12 points in his three other matchups against top-10 units. Goff will face off against a Cardinals defense that falls in the former group, as the secondary has largely been a disappointment outside of lock-down corner Patrick Peterson. The only redeeming member of the league’s fourth-worst pass rush in adjusted sack rate is Chandler Jones, who ranks among the top-15 edge rushers in pass-rushing productivity.
Goff has posted the league’s ninth-best quarterback rating with a 7/2 touchdown/interception ratio when kept clean this season compared to the 16th-best rating with a 0/2 ratio when under pressure. Public Enemy No. 1 Jones has lined up against the left tackle on 88.3 percent of his snaps this season, so he’ll spend the bulk of his time Sunday against former-Bengal and first-team All-Pro Andrew Whitworth. PFF’s No. 7 overall tackle has allowed a grand total of 14 hurries since the beginning of last season, and the rest of the Cardinals front seven doesn’t have the dogs to take advantage of the Rams’ remaining mediocre line. The Rams’ current implied total of 25 points is the fourth-highest mark on Sunday’s main slate.
Carolina Panthers (Cam Newton) vs. Chicago Bears
The new-look Panthers offense is seemingly here to stay: Newton is dinking-and-dunking more than ever before. His average target distance of eight yards is well below his previous career-low of 9.4 yards in 2013. The Panthers are averaging 21.3 points per game through six weeks, which would be the second-lowest mark of the Newton era. Newton’s rushing ability has been on display recently, as he’s racked up seven-plus rush attempts in three consecutive weeks. Still, the Panthers’ insistence on calling fewer designed quarterback runs makes this aspect of his game a bit more volatile than in recent seasons.
Only Kirk Cousins has managed to crack 22 DraftKings points against the Bears at Soldier Field since the beginning of last season, and the defense ranks among the top-seven units in both average DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks through six weeks. The Bears have seen some reverse line movement this week, and they have the talent in Leonard Floyd and Pernell McPhee to get after PFF’s eighth-worst offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency. Newton had a career-high 52 pass attempts last week, but it’s clear the Panthers would prefer to run the ball, as he didn’t surpass even 33 attempts in prior weeks. He’ll need to get the job done against a Bears defense that has posted the second-lowest Opponent Plus/Minus to quarterbacks over the past 12 months.
Cincinnati Bengals (Andy Dalton) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Dalton has posted drastic splits with and without new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the shots this season:
- Weeks 1-2: 191.5 passing yards per game, 0/2 touchdown/interception ratio, 5.79 yards per attempt, 5.73 DraftKings PPG
- Weeks 3-5: 275.3 yards per game, 7/2 TD/INT ratio, 8.83 Y/A, 21.31 PPG
The Bengals have embraced Dalton getting the ball out quicker, but they’ve also benefited from facing the Packers, Browns, and an E.J. Gaines-less Bills defense. Dalton has been pressured 5.4 percent less on his pass attempts over his past three games compared to the first two weeks of the season, but this same luxury likely won’t be afforded against the Steelers’ second-ranked front seven in adjusted sack rate this season. They proved capable of making life miserable for the league’s second-highest scoring offense last week:
Interior defenders Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt, along with linebackers Ryan Shazier and Vince Williams, all rank among PFF’s top-10 pass-rushing players at their position this season. The Steelers aren’t afraid to send pressure, and it’s unclear if the Bengals’ three running backs (all of whom PFF ranks outside the top-15 pass-blocking backs this season) can assist the league’s sixth-worst line in pass-blocking efficiency enough to save Dalton.
Honorable Mentions
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jameis Winston) vs. Buffalo Bills: Winston didn’t throw in practice until Friday this week, but he’s going to try to gut it out against the Bills’ No. 3 defense in DVOA. The league’s best offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency should be able to keep him upright against the Bills’ sixth-ranked unit in adjusted sack rate. Be sure to monitor our News Feed to find out if Winston will be limited going into Sunday’s game.
- Tennessee Titans (Marcus Mariota) vs. Cleveland Browns: Mariota didn’t gain any rushing yards for the first time all season last week, but his hamstring is reportedly feeling even better, and he should be closer to 100 percent Sunday. Tackles Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin are two of the best in the business and should be more than capable of protecting Mariota against the worst overall defense in DVOA this season.
- Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz) vs. Washington Redskins: Wentz has already thrown for multiple touchdowns and 300-plus yards in three games this season after reaching those thresholds just once a season ago. The Redskins will be without first-round pick Jonathan Allen (foot, IR), and the Eagles will welcome back right tackle Lane Johnson, whose presence has historically led to a better Wentz.
