Last week saw the Dolphins hit rock bottom by scoring zero points against the Saints, Cam Newton and company get back on track against the Patriots, complete dominance by the Deshaun Watson-led Texans, as well as the loss of Derek Carr for at least this week due to a transverse process fracture in his back. Sunday’s main slate won’t include Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, and Trevor Siemian due to bye weeks, while Tom Brady and Jameis Winston already took part in #ColorRushThursday. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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San Francisco 49ers (Brian Hoyer) vs. Indianapolis Colts
After failing to surpass 200 passing yards against the Panthers and Seahawks during the first two weeks of the season, Hoyer has surpassed 290 yards in consecutive weeks in still tough matchups against the Rams and Cardinals. He’s now tied for the second-cheapest salary on DraftKings despite facing a Colts defense that has allowed 4.5 points above salary-based expectations to quarterbacks this season. While Hoyer is merely a placeholder quarterback in San Francisco and not someone you want to invest too heavily in, he’s managed to throw for 300-plus yards in five of his last eight full starts with multiple touchdown passes in four of those games.
And then there’s the Colts’ pass defense. Their front seven is dominated by players who PFF has graded as better against the run than the pass, and the secondary is banged up with Vontae Davis just returning from a groin injury (he allowed a 5-101-0 line on six targets last Sunday night) and second-round pick Quincy Wilson having missed the last two games with a knee injury. Russell Wilson took an average of 2.95 seconds to throw during the first three weeks of the season but was afforded 3.1 seconds against the Colts’ sad excuse for a pass rush that managed to pressure him on just 30.3 percent of his dropbacks – down from 43.6 percent during the first three weeks. The 49ers have the league’s 10th-best offensive line in combined pass-blocking efficiency and get the league’s single-worst defense in points and pass plays of 20-plus yards allowed per game. Hoyer is currently the highest-rated quarterback in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model.
Oakland Raiders (E.J. Manuel) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Manuel lost his job as the Bills’ quarterback during his second season in the league but still managed to score multiple touchdowns in five of his eight starts that season. Despite not scrambling during the Raiders’ Week 4 loss to the Broncos, Manuel joins a list of just seven quarterbacks (of which only Tyrod Taylor, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson currently start) that have averaged at least 5.5 rush attempts per game since 2013. Quarterbacks to average at least 5.5 rush attempts per game with a DraftKings salary of $5,500 or less have averaged 17.5 points per game with a +2.6 Plus/Minus and 66.7 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). There’s a ton of value in quarterbacks with a moderate rushing floor, and Manuel now gets to throw to the two best receivers of his career behind the league’s No. 1 offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency.
Meanwhile, the Ravens don’t have a starting interior or edge defender graded within the top-30 pass-rushing players at their position by PFF. The difference between their pass defense at home vs. on the road last season was astounding:
Like Hoyer, Manuel isn’t someone you want to bet too many Coors Lights on. Still, the Ravens defense has been at a loss without nose tackle Brandon Williams, who helped the team allow just 10 total points against the Bengals and Browns while earning PFF’s eighth-highest grade among all interior defenders. Since then, the defense has been ripped apart for 44 points by the Jaguars and 26 by the Steelers.
New York Giants (Eli Manning) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers present several obstacles for the Giants. While Odell Beckham Jr. is capable of handling shadow coverage against anyone, he’ll be tested by lockdown corner Casey Hayward. More concerning is how this new-look Giants offense will have their brutal offensive tackles tested by one of the best pairs of edge rushers in the league in Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa:
The Chargers have held each team they’ve faced to less than 250 passing yards, acting as a reverse funnel defense through four weeks. This movable force will meet a stoppable object this Sunday: The Chargers have allowed the fifth-highest average yards per carry and face a Giants offense that has averaged the third-fewest yards per rush. Eli Manning took an average of 2.61 seconds to throw during the first two weeks of the season but has since posted a league-low mark of 2.18 seconds over the past two weeks in an effort to shield him from the perennial punching bag Ereck Flowers and Justin Pugh, the latter who spent the better part of the past two seasons at guard.
Arizona Cardinals (Carson Palmer) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Cardinals’ injury-riddled offensive line has posted the second-worst pass-blocking efficiency score of the season, while the Eagles have PFF’s third- and 16th-highest graded edge and interior defenders, respectively, in pass rushing. The presence of Fletcher Cox (questionable, calf) would make matters even worse for the Cardinals, but the Eagles still managed to pressure Philip Rivers on 37.5 percent of his dropbacks last week without Cox.
Now the Eagles will get to pin their ears back against a Cardinals offensive line that has allowed a league-high 43 quarterbacks hits this season. While the Giants are one example of a team that has focused on getting the ball out quickly to help their nonexistent offensive line, Bruce Arians hasn’t strayed from his patented downfield attack. Only DeShone Kizer has thrown more passes after taking at least 2.6 seconds to throw than Palmer, who could struggle to find that amount of time against the best front seven the Cardinals have faced this season.
Honorable Mentions
- Miami Dolphins (Jay Cutler) vs. Tennessee Titans: Cutler has thrown for fewer than 300 yards in 11 consecutive starts and has thrown multiple touchdowns just twice during that span. The Titans defense has the league’s fifth-worst adjusted sack rate and offers little resistance outside of Brian Orakpo. The Dolphins’ passing game has a chance to get back on track against a defense that has allowed the second- and first-highest Plus/Minus on DraftKings to quarterbacks and wide receivers, respectively, since the beginning of last season.
- Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers) vs. Dallas Cowboys: The Packers could be facing a Cowboys defense without several major pieces at linebacker and in the secondary, but the Cowboys will return David Irving – the team’s leader in pressure percentage last season. The Packers are hopeful starting tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari are able to suit up after an extra-long week off, and they’ll be needed to contain DeMarcus Lawrence — the NFL’s sack leader and No. 1 edge defender in pass-rushing productivity.
- Carolina Panthers (Cam Newton) vs. Detroit Lions: Newton’s evolution as a passer has been on full display this season, as he’s posted an average target distance of just 8.3 yards compared to his league-high mark of 11.0 yards in 2016. He failed to surpass even 230 passing yards through the first three weeks but got back on track with 316 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots’ league-worst defense in pass DVOA. Newton and the Panthers’ passing offense have a much tougher test this week against the Lions’ fifth-ranked unit in pass DVOA that has allowed fewer than 275 passing yards in every game this season.
