Last week’s premiere rushing performances consisted of LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliott clearing the century mark despite facing talented front sevens, while normal bell cows Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson (#RIPTeamJamEmIn) struggled in seemingly solid spots as road favorites. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Los Angeles Chargers (Melvin Gordon) vs. Miami Dolphins
Gordon is locked in as the Chargers’ three-down back, as he played 76 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 1. He racked up 79 total yards and a touchdown on 23 touches, three of which came in the red zone. The Chargers’ offensive line hasn’t ranked higher than 23rd in adjusted line yards since 2014, but they made a newfound commitment to the run game this offseason by replacing four of five offensive linemen and bringing in new head coach/ex-Bills running back whisperer Anthony Lynn.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins return largely the same front seven that allowed the third-most yards before contact per rush last season. Second-round pick Raekwon McMillan was supposed to help fill the hole at middle linebacker, but he tore his ACL in training camp. Ndamukong Suh remains one of the best defensive players in the league, but defensive tackle Jordan Phillips ranked 42nd in run-stop percentage among 43 full time interior defenders in 2016. Further, defensive ends Andre Branch and Cameron Wake are pass-rushers at heart and both ranked outside of the top-90 edge defenders in run-stop percentage.
Gordon has averaged 17.5 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a +5.7 Plus/Minus and 70 percent Consistency Rating in 10 career games as a home favorite. Only Bell has a higher projected ceiling in our Models among running backs this week, and Gordon gets a Dolphins defense that Lynn gashed for an average of 169.5 rushing yards per game last season.
Dallas Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) vs. Denver Broncos
The Cowboys didn’t waste any time getting Elliott involved Week 1, as his 29 touches tied with Leonard Fournette‘s for the most among all running backs. He failed to find the end zone but continued to grind out extra yards even with two new offensive line starters against a talented Giants front seven:
The Cowboys called the most run plays in the league last season, and this likely won’t change against a Broncos defense with zero holes in their secondary. The Broncos are essentially a reverse-funnel defense considering they ranked in the bottom-half of the league in yards allowed before contact and struggled to get stops when needed last season. Overall, the Broncos stopped a league-low 11 percent of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage in 2016. The Cowboys’ offensive line was the fifth-best unit in this metric last season and could face a Broncos defensive line without Jared Crick, whose 28 run stops were tied for the 10th-most among all interior defenders in 2016.
Last season the Cowboys ranked second in adjusted line yards up the middle; the Broncos defense ranked 28th. The Broncos’ heralded “No Fly Zone” looks as good as ever this season, but the team didn’t address their issues in stopping power football — an issue primed to be exposed Sunday against arguably the best power-football offense in the league.
Monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Cowboys every week, and study our DFS Contests Dashboard throughout the season to see how chalky Elliott makes tournament rosters. Consult our Correlations Matrix to get a sense of Zeke’s best stacking partners, and use our Lineup Builder to stack Elliott with QB Dak Prescott.
Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Bills’ No. 1 offensive line in yards before contact per rush last season picked up right where they left off in Week 1, racking up 42 carries for 190 yards and a touchdown against the Jets’ fearsome front seven. Shady forced five missed tackles on his 27 touches and faces minimal competition for snaps aside from professional vulture Mike Tolbert. This massive workload gives Shady a high weekly floor but doesn’t necessarily make him immune to bad matchups. Per our Trends tool, McCoy has struggled to provide the same level of upside away from New Era Field since arriving in Buffalo in 2015:
One explanation for McCoy’s reduced production on the road is game flow: McCoy has averaged 15.1 carries and 4.2 targets on the road compared to 17.6 carries and 3.7 targets at home since joining the Bills in 2015. This burden won’t be eased this week in Carolina, as the Panthers are currently 7.5-point favorites. A healthy Luke Kuechly is never good news for an opposing run game, and the Panthers’ ability to create negative plays (ranked fifth in stuff rate last season; the Bills’ offensive line ranked 22nd) could put Shady in some suboptimal situations. Outside linebackers Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson ranked among the top-eight 4-3 outside linebackers in tackling efficiency last season and could help limit some of Shady’s explosive plays. Overall, 8.5 percent of McCoy’s runs went for 15-plus yards last season – the fourth-highest mark among all running backs. With the slate’s second-highest salary and tough matchup, McCoy has projected ownership of nine to 12 percent.
This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs.
Chicago Bears (Jordan Howard) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Howard’s stranglehold on the Bears’ backfield isn’t as tight as many may have thought or hoped. Rookie running back Tarik Cohen, a 5’6″ and 181-pound back out of North Carolina A&T, received 13 touches (three fewer than Howard) and 28 snaps (10 fewer than Howard) in Week 1. Howard is expected to work as the team’s early-down and goal-line back, but his untimely end zone drop last week and general ineffectiveness in the passing game last season doesn’t bode well for his chances at cutting into Cohen’s receiving workload. Howard averaged 12.01 DraftKings PPG while surpassing his salary-based expectations in just three of his eight road games in 2016, and he faces unfavorable game script with the Buccaneers currently seven-point favorites. He’ll also likely once again be without starting guard and former All-Pro Kyle Long (ankle).
The Buccaneers got better on the defensive line by replacing Clinton McDonald (ranked outside of the top-140 interior defenders in run-stop percentage) with the mammoth 6’2″ and 335-pound Chris Baker, whose 20 run stops in Washington would’ve been the most on the Buccaneers last season. The Bucs allowed 0.2 fewer yards per carry and five fewer rushing touchdowns at Raymond James Stadium last season, helping them rank as the fifth- and eighth-best units in average DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs, respectively.
Honorable Mentions
- Miami Dolphins (Jay Ajayi) vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Ajayi’s upside is nearly unparalleled: He surpassed 200 yards in a game on three separate occasions last season, a feat only Earl Campbell, Tiki Barber, and O.J. Simpson have managed to achieve since the 1970 merger. The Dolphins ran the third-highest percentage of outside zone last season, meaning success will likely have to go through studs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
- Kansas City Chiefs (Kareem Hunt) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Hunt’s top speed of 20.84 miles per hour edged out teammate Tyreek Hill‘s for the fastest mark of last week, and his NFL record 246 total yards from scrimmage in his first game was pretty cool, too. A date with last season’s second-best defense in adjusted line yards — one that only got better with the addition of Timmy Jernigan (highest run-stop percentage of any 3-4 defensive end last season with a minimum 115 run snaps) — awaits him in Week 2.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell) vs. Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings ranked among the top-10 defenses in fewest second-level and open-field yards allowed per rush last season, and they are fresh off holding the Saints’ trio of running backs to 60 yards and zero touchdowns on 21 carries. Still, the Steelers have had a top-eight offensive line in adjusted line yards for three consecutive seasons, and Bell has historically had no issues matching his usual ridiculous stat lines at home despite the upside of the Steelers’ passing game.
- Green Bay Packers (Ty Montgomery) vs. Atlanta Falcons: PFF’s top-rated running back in pass protection for Week 1, Montgomery is locked in as the Packers’ three-down workhorse; he had 74 snaps compared to six for backup Jamaal Williams. The Falcons were a bottom-10 defense in both average DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs last season.
