Last week’s premiere rushing performances included three-touchdown days from both Mark Ingram and DeMarco Murray, surprising letdowns from Le’Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette, as well as prime-time receiving clinics courtesy of Christian McCaffrey and Rex Burkhead. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Washington Redskins (Chris Thompson) vs. New Orleans Saints
Head coach Jay Gruden has been adamant all season that he wouldn’t increase the workload of the team’s 5’7″ 192-pound pass-down back. Still, Thompson’s three largest workloads through 10 weeks have come in games with Rob Kelley (ankle, IR) sidelined. Overall, he’s averaged 15.3 touches per game without Kelley and 8.7 touches per game with him. Samaje Perine will soak up most of Kelley’s early-down snaps, but he’s averaged just 3.2 yards per carry this season and has yet to crack a run over 12 yards.
Even a slight increase in workload on the ground would benefit Thompson against the league’s 25th-ranked defense in rush DVOA. The Redskins’ status as 7.5-point underdogs normally isn’t ideal for running backs, but playing from behind could actually work to Thompson’s benefit. The Redskins’ second-most targeted receiver faces a Saints defense that hasn’t exactly locked down primary-receiving backs this season:
- Christian McCaffrey: 11 targets, 9-101-0
- James White: 8 tgts, 8-85-0
- Theo Riddick: 7 tgts, 5-45-0
- Rex Burkhead: 4 tgts, 3-41-1
- Jerick McKinnon: 3 tgts, 3-32-0
The Saints defense will need to overcome another week without slot corner Kenny Vacarro (groin, doubtful), and playing at The Coors Field of Fantasy Football always has the potential for a shootout. Both Thompson and Cousins offer top-eight Projected Floors at their position for Sunday’s main slate (per our Pro Models).
Arizona Cardinals (Adrian Peterson) vs. Houston Texans
Peterson has as many games with over 130 rushing yards as he does with fewer than 50 total yards during his brief time with the Cardinals. It’s probably not a coincidence his poor games came against the league’s No. 1 and No. 6 overall defenses in overall DVOA, and his better games came against the No. 26- and No. 28- ranked units. Production aside, Peterson hasn’t looked the part of washed-up old man. He’s slipped 16 tackles during his time with the Cardinals, more than any other running back to play four games since Week 5. Even at 32-years old, Peterson is still plenty capable of making life a personal hell for would-be tacklers, with both his power and elusiveness:
The loss of the team’s best tackle D.J. Humphries (knee, IR) is far from ideal, but the Texans’ array of journeymen in the front seven may not have the talent to make Peterson pay over the course of 20 carries. They allowed an average of 22 points during the first four weeks of the season, but have surrendered an average of 30.6 PPG following the loss of both J.J. Watt (leg, IR) and Whitney Mercilus (pec, IR). Peterson certainly carries some risk in an offense quarterbacked by either Drew Stanton or Blaine Gabbert, but a relatively tame 2.5-point spread in the Texans favor bodes well for the Cardinals chances at staying competitive and maintaining preferable game script for Peterson.
Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to view Peterson’s ownership levels at different contest sizes.
Miami Dolphins (Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers’ 27th-ranked defense in overall DVOA has plenty of holes to fill, but they’ve played much better with both of their stud linebackers in Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander healthy:
- Opposing offense averages vs. both David and Alexander (5 games): 18.8 PPG, 336 total yards, 100 rush yards.
- Averages vs. just one or neither (4 games): 28.5 PPG, 426.8, 122.3 rush yards.
The Dolphins’ 30th-ranked offensive line in adjusted-line yards will also have to deal with talented run-stopping defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Chris Baker. Even assuming that a Dolphins’ offensive line already missing their starting left guard and right tackle can still somehow find a way to break open some holes against the Bucs, attempting to guess who will receive the lion’s share of touches only creates an entirely new set of problematic decisions.
Head coach Adam Gase said he considers both Drake and Williams starters. Williams has converted his 28 rushes into just 65 yards and zero touchdowns this season, while Drake ripped off a 66-yard touchdown last Monday Night and leads the team with an average of 6.8 yards per carry. Reports, as well as on-field performance, have indicated Drake could be the team’s featured back sooner rather than later, but that time doesn’t appear to be this week. With uncertain workloads all around, it’s hard to get excited about either running back in the Dolphins league- worst scoring offense.
Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers defense boasts three of PFF’s top-20 overall cornerbacks, and has held everyone not named Tom Brady to fewer than 265 passing yards this season. Predictably, offenses have taken their chances on the ground, as the Chargers have faced the sixth-most rush attempts per game through 10 weeks. The league’s 22nd-ranked defense in rush DVOA was gashed for an average of 185 rushing yards from Weeks 3-5, but has since rallied and held opponents to just 102.5 yards in Weeks 6-10.
Last Sunday marked a particularly impressive performance form the Chargers run defense, as they held Leonard Fournette to 33 rushing yards on 17 carries. The season debut of stud starting middle linebacker Denzel Perryman may have had something to do with that:
The Bills may choose to rely on McCoy more than ever before with rookie Nathan Peterman replacing Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, but it’s fair to question how Shady will perform without a rushing threat under center:
- Bills: 2015-2017 with Tyrod Taylor (33 games): 4.67 YPC. Without Taylor (3 games): 4.20 YPC.
- Eagles: 2010-2014 with Mike Vick (41 games): 5.02 YPC. W/o Vick (33 gms): 4.38 YPC.
Of course, Shady found plenty of success with Nick Foles at quarterback as well – and three games without Taylor is hardly a sample size to bet your life on. Still, he’ll also be battling the potential absence of starting left tackle Cordy Glenn (foot/ankle, questionable). We’ll find out if McCoy’s tendency to share Taylor’s severe home/away splits will be solved by one of just four quarterbacks to beat Deshaun Watson in his last two seasons.
Honorable Mentions
- New Orleans Saints (Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara) vs. Washington Redskins: Ingram has racked up 20.4 carries and 3.4 targets per game compared to 9.8 rush attempts and 5.0 targets per game from Kamara since Peterson was shipped to Arizona. Ingram remains the goal-line back, out-rushing Kamara 10-2 inside the five-yards line. Still, both backs, coming off one of the most dominant 1-2 punch performances of the season, remain heavily featured in the league’s No. 3 scoring offense against a Redskins defense that has allowed an additional 7.15 PPG and 48.5 rushing yards per game since losing first-round defensive tackle Jonathan Allen for the season.
- Detroit Lions (Ameer Abdullah) vs. Chicago Bears: Abdullah could get an extra crack or two at a goal-line touchdown if Dwayne Washington (hip, questionable) is ultimately unable to suit up, and the Bears run defense isn’t nearly as lethal without starting linebackers Danny Trevathan (knee, questionable) and Jerrell Freeman (pectoral, IR). Overall, they’ve allowed an average of 87.4 rushing yards in nine games with their starting middle linebackers since 2016 compared to 134.9 yards in 16 games without. To stay on top of these and all of the other relevant DFS injuries, be sure to follow our industry-leading News Feed as well as our Injury Dashboard.
- Los Angeles Rams (Todd Gurley) vs. Minnesota Vikings: Gurley isn’t set up all that well as a road underdog against a Viking defense that ranks among the top-three units in fewest DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating allowed to running backs this season (per our Trends Tool). Still, Gurley leads all backs in carries inside the five-yard line and is on pace for a career-high 62 receptions. The Rams could look to ride PFF’s No. 5 overall left tackle Andrew Whitworth against a Vikings defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against runs over left end.
- Kansas City Chiefs (Kareem Hunt) vs. New York Giants: Hunt was the league’s RB1 through Week 3 with 34.6 DraftKings PPG, but has since been the RB13 with 14.0 PPG and has gone seven consecutive games without surpassing his salary-based expectation. The presence of PFF’s No. 1 overall interior defender Damon “Snacks” Harrison (questionable, ankle) is invaluable against a Chiefs offense that is tied with the Cowboys and Jaguars for most yards per carry allowed. Things could get explosive with the league’s No. 1 offense in 20-plus yard rushes taking on a Giants defense surrendering the most-such rushes through 10 weeks.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Leonard Fournette) vs. Cleveland Browns: Fournette’s first game back from a nearly-month long layoff resulted in just 33 rushing yards on 17 carries against the Chargers. More concerning was his pass-game usage, as T.J. Yeldon soaked up eight targets and 37 percent of the snaps in his first game on the active roster with Fournette. The Jaguars rush-heavy approach will be tested by the Browns’ No. 2 ranked defense in rush DVOA, and the presence of right tackle Jermey Parnell (knee, questionable) would certainly help Fournette’s chances.
