Last week saw offensive line-induced letdowns from Dak Prescott and Josh McCown, three- and four-touchdown days from Mathew Stafford and Case Keenum, respectively, as well as more down-by-down excellence from Tom Brady and Jared Goff. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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New England Patriots (Tom Brady) vs. Oakland Raiders
All Brady did in his first game off the Patriots’ Week 9 bye was slice up the Broncos’ “No-Fly Zone” to the tune of 266 yards and three touchdowns. This performance was especially impressive considering the offense was missing both right tackle Marcus Cannon (ankle) and Chris Hogan (shoulder). Neither has practiced as of Friday morning, and Hogan reportedly isn’t expected to play. The offense would undeniably benefit from either’s return, but the Pats still have a golden matchup as the No. 1 offense in overall and pass DVOA against the league’s worst defense in overall and pass DVOA.
The Patriots have seemingly figured out their early-season offensive line woes, ranking fourth in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric since Week 6. Only Alex Smith has a higher quarterback rating than Brady with 2.6 seconds or more to throw, and he leads all quarterbacks with 12 touchdowns and a 61.4 completion rate when granted that much time. Khalil Mack is fantastic, but the Patriots proved last week they’re more than adept at neutralizing one of the league’s best pass rushers in Von Miller:
Despite having one of the most-gifted pass rushers in the league, the Raiders rank dead last in adjusted sack rate. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to check Cannon and Hogan’s day-by-day practice participation and estimated game status.
Washington Redskins (Kirk Cousins) vs. New Orleans Saints
Cousins has thrown for 300 yards and/or multiple touchdowns in five of seven games this season with left tackle Trent Williams in the lineup. After weeks with multiple starters on the offensive line out, the unit finally appears to be somewhat healthy. Cousins has been a top-five passer in quarterback rating and completion rate when kept clean this season, and he remains the only passer without an interception when not pressured. Only Drew Brees has more games with 300-plus passing yards than Cousins since 2015, but the question remains: Just how good is the Saints defense?
The Saints undoubtedly boast a very talented and productive secondary, but their recent four-game streak of holding opponents to under 20 points and 150 passing yards has come against the likes of Brett Hundley, Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston/Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Tyrod Taylor/Nathan Peterman. Cousins has averaged 19.4 DraftKings PPG with a +3.1 Plus/Minus and 1.2 percent ownership as a road dog since 2014 (per our Trends tool). Cameron Jordan is the only Saints defender to rank among their position’s top-20 players in pass-rushing productivity, and the presence of Chris Thompson could help the Redskins exploit a Saints defense that ranks 18th in DVOA against running backs.
Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) vs. Chicago Bears
Stafford has been dominant for the past month, racking up four games with multiple touchdowns and one 432-yard outing in his last five games. Still, a number of factors are working against him this Sunday:
- Stafford has averaged 0.95 fewer yards per attempt, 0.33 fewer touchdowns, and 3.18 fewer DraftKings points per game (PPG) away from Ford Field since 2014.
- The Bears defense has been an entirely different unit in Chicago since defensive coordinator Vic Fangio took over in 2015, allowing 25.9 points and 238.3 passing yards on the road compared to 22.5 points and 204.4 yards per game at Soldier Field.
- The Lions offensive line remains a massive issue, as PFF’s 27th-ranked unit didn’t exactly get better with the return of left tackle Taylor Decker last Sunday. Overall, he allowed three pressures in 20 snaps – the third-worst pass-blocking efficiency score among 58 eligible tackles last week.
Starting guard T.J. Lang missed last week’s game with a concussion, and the Lions will need him at 100 percent against Akiem Hicks, PFF’s No. 6 overall interior defender in pass-rushing productivity. Leonard Floyd has settled in during his second season, ranking eighth among all edge defenders in pass-rushing productivity since Week 5. Current forecasts call for near-freezing temperatures with winds gusting at 15 miles per hour, so be sure to follow our industry-leading News Feed to stay on top of any relevant weather and workload DFS information heading into Sunday lock.
Baltimore Ravens (Joe Flacco) vs. Green Bay Packers
Flacco managed to dice up the Titans’ 24th-ranked secondary in pass DVOA to the tune of 261 yards and two touchdowns last week. It was just his second game all season with multiple touchdowns. Recently retired Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta described Flacco’s decision process as “one read and he’s got to check it down.” It’s a fair critique: For all the lust over Flacco’s big arm, he’s thrown the most interceptions on passes thrown 20-plus yards despite having the fewest 20-plus-yard pass attempts among all quarterbacks with at least seven starts this season.
Flacco is one of just four quarterbacks to be kept clean on more than 72 percent of his pass attempts, mostly because only Eli Manning and Stafford have thrown more pass attempts in 2.5 seconds or fewer. Without all-world guard Marshal Yanda, the Ravens don’t have any offensive linemen graded among the top-20 pass-blockers at their position. This could be problematic against a Packers defense that boasts talented rushers both inside and outside in Mike Daniels and Nick Perry:
The potential returns of Terrance West (calf, probable) and Danny Woodhead (hamstring, questionable) could certainly help the offense as a whole, but moving the ball in Green Bay has been easier said than done of late. Overall, the Packers have allowed 27.5 points and 279.9 passing yards per game on the road compared to 20.4 points and 240.9 yards at home since 2016.
Honorable Mentions
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Blake Bortles) vs. Cleveland Browns: The Browns’ 27th-ranked defense in pass DVOA joins the Colts as the only units to allow over 75 percent of the quarterbacks they’ve faced to surpass their salary-based point projection. Head coach Doug Marone may suck at coaching football, but it’s good for Bortles’ fantasy value if he continues to average 44.5 pass attempts in non-blowouts. A potentially hobbled right tackle Jermey Parnell (knee, questionable) will be partially responsible for handling No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett – PFF’s No.5 overall edge rusher in pass-rushing productivity since debuting in Week 5.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Ryan Fitzpatrick) vs. Miami Dolphins: Fitzpatrick’s debut as the Bucs starter didn’t go quite as well as planned, but he still offers more upside than your typical backup: #FitzMagic has multiple touchdown passes in 15 of his last 28 starts. The return of Mike Evans will undoubtedly elevate the league’s 13th-ranked offense in pass DVOA against the Dolphins’ 31st-ranked pass defense. Miami is one of just four teams that’s allowed quarterbacks to post a cumulative passer rating of more than 100 season. The Bucs’ fifth-ranked offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency has a good matchup against the Dolphins’ 21st-ranked defense in adjusted-sack rate.
- Kansas City Chiefs (Alex Smith) vs. New York Giants: Smith is the highest rated quarterback in our Pro Models, and takes on a Giants defense allowing 6.5-DraftKings points above salary-based expectation to quarterbacks over the past calendar year. The Chiefs are currently implied to score 28.5 points against a Giants defense that is one of five units to allow at least 35 passes of 20-plus yards. The Giants have allowed the third-most passing yards per game this season, and even the return of defense end Olivier Vernon couldn’t stop C.J. Beathard & Co. from scoring 31 points last Sunday.
- Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz) vs. Dallas Cowboys: Defensive tackle David Irving and defensive end Demarcus Lawrence both rank among PFF’s top-seven players at their position in pass-rushing productivity this season. They’ll face an Eagles offensive line that will continue to miss perennial Pro-Bowl starting left tackle Jason Peters (knee, IR). But Philly will benefit from the absence of Sean Lee (hamstring, doubtful), as the Cowboys have allowed 32.3 PPG and 363 total yards in the three games when Lee has played less than a quarter, compared to 18 PPG and 307 total yards in six games with their all-world linebacker.
