Last week’s premiere rushing performances included duds on the road from LeSean McCoy and Doug Martin, continued greatness from Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott, as well as a Herculean 37-carry, 159-yard effort from a rejuvenated Adrian Peterson. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy) vs. New Orleans Saints
McCoy managed just 25 total yards and failed to find the end zone last Thursday night against the Jets. While the Jets had the athletes at linebacker and on the defensive line to disrupt the Bills’ backfield, the Saints’ 28th-ranked defense in run DVOA doesn’t have a linebacker graded among PFF’s top-50 players against the run. Cameron Jordan is enjoying the best season of his seven-year career, but he’s been the only consistent difference-maker on the defensive line.
The Bills aren’t expected to test the Saints’ talented secondary much considering they’re one of just four teams with over 31 rush attempts per game this season. McCoy averaged 22.3 carries per game from Weeks 4-8, and last Thursday marked just the third time all season he received fewer than seven targets. Shady has historically shared his quarterback’s severe home/away splits:
- Shady at home since 2015 (16 games): 121.9 total yards, 5.2 YPC, 1.0 TDs, 23.6 DraftKings PPG, +6.4 Plus/Minus
- Shady on the road (19 games): 86.5 total yards, 4.1 YPC, 0.32 TDs, 14.4 DraftKings PPG, -2.2 Plus/Minus
Thankfully, he’s back in Buffalo in Week 10. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard and industry-leading News Feed to track the status of left tackle Cordy Glenn (foot/ankle, questionable).
Jacksonville Jaguars (Leonard Fournette) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday will mark Fournette’s first game in nearly a month. He missed the Jaguars’ Week 7 win over the Colts in order to rest his foot/ankle injury through the team’s Week 8 bye, but he then missed last Sunday as well due to numerous team rule violations. A quick refresher on what we saw from Fournette before his life turned into an episode of Ballers:
The Jaguars have averaged 3.4 more rush attempts per game than the next closest team, and Fournette’s ferocious style of running has helped the offense rank among the top-five units in both average open field yards per rush and fewest runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. Plenty of his runs end with three yards and a cloud of dust up the middle, but he’s found plenty of chances to make big plays with his 21.6 carries per game. Overall, Fournette ranks third among all full-time backs in percentage of carries to go for 15-plus yards.
You won’t find a better pair of edge rushers than Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, but PFF’s top-two pass rushers rank 74th and 49th, respectively, against the run this season. The return of linebacker Denzel Perryman (ankle, questionable) would certainly help, but the Chargers’ bottom-four defense in both adjusted line and second-level yards per rush will have to prove they can stand tall against the league’s No. 1 offense in both total rushing yards and yards per rush.
Houston Texans (Lamar Miller) vs. Los Angeles Rams
After playing a season-high 59 snaps against the Seahawks in Week 8, Miller came back to earth in Week 9 and resumed his 70/30 snap/touch split with backup D’Onta Foreman. Miller has failed to rush for over 75 yards in a game this season, and Foreman has been the more-effective back over the team’s past four games. Both backs face the prospect of seeing significantly less fantasy-friendly opportunities without Deshaun Watson under center, as the Texans scored just 14 points against the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring defense after ripping off at least 33 points in their previous six games.
Attempting to navigate behind an offensive line without a guard or tackle graded higher than 35th by PFF has proven to be difficult for Miller, as he’s averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry through nine weeks. Even the best offensive lines in the league will struggle with all-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald, but the combination of Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron could prove to be just as problematic:
Miller’s 21.8-point projected ceiling (via our Pro Models) is the second-lowest mark among all running backs priced over $5,000 on DraftKings this week. Be sure to monitor our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Miller’s poor matchup leads to low ownership across various contest sizes.
Green Bay Packers (Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery) vs. Chicago Bears
The Packers’ backfield has been a revolving door since Eddie Lacy lost control of the situation in 2015. It appeared as though Jones had taken over the team’s backfield in Week 7, but last Sunday night’s game against the Lions painted an entirely different picture:
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Wednesday he liked the rotation the backs used in Week 9 and indicated the plan going in was for Montgomery to handle third downs. This system seems here to stay considering Jones has managed just 16 yards on 15 targets to this point. Meanwhile, Montgomery seems to be over his rib injury and ranks among PFF’s top-15 pass-blocking backs this season. To call this situation volatile and uncertain would be an understatement, and there doesn’t seem to be much of a prize in picking the correct back considering the Packers are currently implied to score just 16.25 points.
The Bears won’t make things easier on the Packers’ struggling offense, as they’ve allowed a -2.0 Plus/Minus with a 27 percent Consistency Rating to running backs this season (per our Trends tool). It’s tough to imagine the league’s third-best offensive line in adjusted line yards sustaining that success after losing right tackle Bryan Bulaga (torn ACL), and the Bears’ ability to limit big runs (tied for fifth in fewest 20-plus yard runs allowed) and tackle well (top-eight unit in fewest second-level and open-field yards per rush) doesn’t bode well for the Packers’ chances at getting back on track.
Honorable Mentions
- New Orleans Saints (Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara) vs. Buffalo Bills: The Bills have allowed an average of 68 fewer rushing yards per game at home this season and boast the sixth-best unit in points allowed per game through nine weeks. Ingram has averaged 20.25 rushes and 4.25 targets in four games since Adrian Peterson was traded to Arizona, but Kamara has remained very involved with 9.25 carries and 5.0 targets himself over that span. The league’s No. 1 offense in adjusted line yards per rush will take on the Bills’ sixth-ranked unit in the slate’s second-highest implied matchup.
- Dallas Cowboys (Alfred Morris) vs. Atlanta Falcons: Ezekiel Elliott is suspended for the next six games (for real this time). Reports have indicated Morris will start, Rod Smith will work as the No. 2 back and on third downs, and Darren McFadden will spell Morris on early downs. All three backs should have chances to thrive given the Cowboys’ fourth-best offensive line in adjusted line yards per rush also ranks among the top-four units in fewest percentage of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons’ 29th-ranked defense in rush DVOA will need undersized middle linebackers De’Vondre Campbell (6’4″ and 232 pounds) and Deion Jones (6’1″ and 222 pounds) to stand tall against the Cowboys’ power run attack.
- Los Angeles Chargers (Melvin Gordon) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Gordon broke loose for an electric 87-yard touchdown against the Patriots prior to the Chargers’ Week 8 bye, but he’s averaging a pedestrian 3.4 yards per carry on his other 130 carries this season. The Jaguars’ 31st-ranked defense in rush DVOA would seemingly be a unit to attack, but the Chargers’ 26th-ranked offense in rush DVOA will be the weakest rushing attack they’ve faced this season. Overall, the Jaguars have allowed an average of just 62.5 rushing yards in two games against offenses ranked 20th or worse in rush DVOA.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Bell hasn’t historically been impacted by his quarterback’s extreme home/away splits, and he’s been fed 30-plus touches in four of his last five games. Just one of three backs to average 25-plus DraftKings points since September ended, Bell will undoubtedly benefit from the expected return of right tackle Marcus Gilbert (hamstring, probable). They’ll take on a Colts defense that will be without front-seven starters Henry Anderson (leg, out) and likely John Simon (stinger, doubtful) in addition to Vontae Davis (cut).
