Last week saw Jared Goff and Carson Wentz each lead their respective first-place squads to 51 points, more multi-touchdown brilliance from Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees, as well as Cam Newton and Dak Prescott continuing to make defenses pay both with their legs and through the air. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Roethlisberger has thrown for three-plus touchdowns in 16 games since 2014, but he’s failed to reach even two scores in five of his eight games this season. Still, he threw for a season-high 317 yards and a touchdown against the Lions before the Steelers’ Week 8 bye, once again demonstrating his ability to overcome his severe home/away splits when playing in a dome:
- Big Ben in road domes since 2013 (5 games): 294.6 passing yards, 9.2 Y/A, 1.0 TDs, 0.6 INTs, 3/5 300+ yards, 16.9 DraftKings PPG
- Big Ben in open-roof road games since 2013 (30 games): 265.1 yards, 7.1 Y/A, 1.3 TDs, 1.0 INTs, 7/30 300+ yards, 16.0 PPG
Roethlisberger has been explosive on turf in a small sample, and there’s no reason to believe the Colts have a defense capable of containing a well-rested Steelers offense that will welcome back Martavis Bryant (one-game suspension) as well as right tackle Marcus Gilbert (hamstring, probable). Jabaal Sheard has racked up 39 pressures this season (tied for seventh among all edge defenders), but the continued absence of John Simon (stinger, doubtful) and loss of Henry Anderson (laryngeal fracture, IR) doesn’t bode well for the league’s seventh-worst defense in adjusted sack rate.
The Steelers once again boast one of the league’s best offensive lines, as their fifth-ranked unit in pass-blocking efficiency has helped keep Roethlisberger clean on 72.5 percent of his passes this season – the fifth-highest mark in the league. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Roethlisberger with Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Bryant in tournaments. Be sure to monitor our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see how chalky Roethlisberger and his pass-catchers are.
Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff) vs. Houston Texans
Goff and first-year head coach Sean McVay have spearheaded the league’s No. 1 scoring offense, although much of the passing game’s success has come in fairly cake matchups:
The Rams deserve plenty of credit for putting up those numbers against any caliber of defense, and they won’t have to prove anything this week against the Texans’ 16th-ranked unit in pass DVOA. In reality, the defense is far worse considering the continued absence of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Overall, the Texans allowed an average of 22 points per game (PPG) and 196 passing yards in Weeks 1-4 compared to 30 PPG and 290 yards over their last four games.
The Rams boast the league’s seventh-best offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency over the latter span, thanks in large part to the continued excellence of Andrew Whitworth – PFF’s No. 5 overall offensive tackle. One concern for Goff is potentially unfavorable game script due to his status as an 11-point home favorite, a scenario that has historically led to high ownership and a negative Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees) vs. Buffalo Bills
Brees is averaging six-year highs in completion rate, yards per attempt, and quarterback rating through nine weeks. Still, he’s throwing the ball less than ever before, as his average of 34.4 pass attempts per game is his lowest mark since the Saints’ 2009 Super Bowl-winning squad. This change in philosophy, combined with a more-than-competent running game and the league’s No. 8 defense in overall DVOA, has led to Brees posting four-year lows in DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating.
Not helping matters this week is the potential absence of left tackle Terron Armstead (chest, questionable). Starting right tackle Zach Strief has already been placed on the injured reserve list with a knee injury, leaving the Saints very thin to stop Jerry Hughes, PFF’s No. 11 overall edge defender this season. Shaq Lawson and Kyle Williams have made their presence felt on the league’s sixth-best scoring defense as well, and the Bills are one of just four teams with more interceptions than pass touchdowns allowed through nine weeks.
Brees has averaged 4.01 fewer DraftKings PPG away from the Superdome since 2014 and carries the lowest Projected Plus/Minus among all quarterbacks priced over $5,500 in our Pro Models. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard and follow our industry-leading News Feed to keep tabs on Armstead’s status for Sunday.
Washington Redskins (Kirk Cousins) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Cousins has managed to remain efficient this season despite inconsistent results from DeSean Jackson‘s and Pierre Garcon‘s replacements, as well as a myriad of injuries across the offensive line. Overall, Cousins has averaged a career-high 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt with a 13/4 touchdown/interception ratio. Still, those injuries across the offensive line remain an issue, as left tackle Trent Williams (knee), left guard Shawn Lauvao (shoulder), and center Spencer Long (knee) should all be considered questionable for Sunday.
Those injuries will be a lot to overcome against the league’s No. 7 defense in adjusted sack rate. Everson Griffen is one of just three players with double-digit sacks this season, but the team’s consistent interior push from both Tom Johnson and Linval Joseph has also been vital to their success:
Overall, the Vikings have ranked among the top-five defenses in fewest DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season. Cousins will need to get the job done against a unit allowing 5.7 DraftKings points below salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months – the fourth-lowest mark in Sunday’s main slate.
Honorable Mentions
- Carolina Panthers (Cam Newton) vs. Miami Dolphins: Newton confirmed earlier this week that he wasn’t unleashed as a runner until recently. The results have been fantastic, as he’s averaging 9.3 DraftKings points per game solely on rushing stats over the Panthers’ last four games. Center Ryan Kalil (neck, doubtful) will be missed, but a limited version of all-world defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (knee, questionable) could be detrimental to the league’s 30th-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Someone indeed woke Newton up once September ended, as he’s ranked among the league’s top-five quarterbacks in DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Upside Rating over the past six weeks.
- Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) vs. Cleveland Browns: Stafford has been absolutely rolling recently, as he’s thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight games and is averaging the second-most adjusted yards per attempt of his career. Still, left tackle remains a massive issue even with Greg Robinson (PFF’s 72nd-ranked tackle) coming back to replace Brian Mihalik (PFF’s 73rd-ranked tackle), and the loss of the team’s best overall lineman T.J. Lang (concussion, doubtful) certainly won’t help matters for the league’s seventh-worst offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency. Fortunately, they get the Browns’ 28th-ranked defense in pass DVOA that offers little pass rush outside of this year’s No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett (concussion, questionable).
- Atlanta Falcons (Matt Ryan) vs. Dallas Cowboys: Only the Chiefs have averaged more yards per play than the Falcons this season, but Atlanta gets an ever-improving Cowboys defense that has thrived behind defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (PFF’s No. 3 pass-rushing edge defender), defensive tackle David Irving (PFF’s No. 12 pass-rushing interior defender), and linebacker Sean Lee (PFF’s No. 7 overall linebacker). Ryan and the Falcons are undoubtedly in a rut, but Ryan is still putting up numbers higher than his career-averages – except for touchdown rate. Despite plenty of speed on both defenses, this game has serious shootout potential with the week’s highest Vegas total.
- Dallas Cowboys (Dak Prescott) vs. Atlanta Falcons: Prescott hasn’t been great during his short career as a road underdog, but the loss of Ezekiel Elliott could put more on his plate than ever before. Not that he doesn’t seem capable of handling it: Prescott has surpassed 23.5 DraftKings points in all but one of his last five games. Still, the potential absence of all-world left tackle Tyron Smith (groin/back, questionable) doesn’t bode well against a Falcons defense featuring three separate edge defenders graded among the top-40 pass rushers this season.
