Despite making up at least 45 percent of a team’s offense on any given play, the offensive line is essentially ignored when it comes to fantasy football. It’ll probably take a while for my long-standing dream of pancakes and hurries counting on DraftKings to come to fruition, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still profit based on the performances of the big uglies. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Los Angeles Rams (Todd Gurley) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Rams were a horrendous run-blocking team last season; only four teams averaged fewer than their 1.11 yards before contact (YBC) per carry. Still, they did find plenty of success running behind right tackle Rob Havenstein, as the Rams ranked sixth in adjusted line yards per rush around right end in 2016. New head coach Sean McVay ran outside zone at a top-eight rate with the Redskins last season and ranked no lower than 13th in adjusted line yards to any side of the formation – with the league’s fourth-best mark over right end.
Gurley displayed ability to press the defense before making one cut and accelerating through arm tackles to create big plays on similar outside zone concepts as a rookie:
The Colts have made some personnel changes to their front seven this offseason, replacing elderly outside linebackers Robert Mathis and Erik Walden with four rushers no older than 28 years old. However, it’s safe to say PFF’s second-worst front seven entering the 2017 season hasn’t done much to shore up a defensive line that allowed a league-high 2.4 YBC last season. They were especially brutal exactly where the Rams thrived, as the Colts allowed the second-most average adjusted line yards per rush over the offense’s right end last season.
All three of the Colts’ starting defensive linemen ranked outside of the top-30 at their position against the run in 2016 (PFF). Meanwhile, the Rams added Andrew Whitworth at left tackle, PFF’s No. 2 overall offensive tackle from 2016. Gurley hasn’t rushed for over 100 yards in a game since early December of 2015, but he’s set up nicely as a four-point home favorite; he has averaged 17.1 DraftKings points per game with a +3.97 Plus/Minus and 83 percent Consistency Rating in his six career games as a home favorite.
Monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Rams every week, and study our DFS Contests Dashboard throughout the season to see how contrarian Gurley makes tournament rosters. Consult our Correlations Matrix to get a sense of Gurley’s best stacking partners, and use our Lineup Builder to stack Gurley with Jared Goff if you’re feeling crazy.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns defense allowed the fifth-most YBC last season and the second-most DraftKings PPG to running backs. The lone bright spot on the unit was Danny Shelton, who earned PFF’s eighth-highest grade against the run among all interior defenders. Shelton is currently questionable for Sunday’s game due to an injury, and No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett (high ankle sprain) is out. Also, the potential absence of the Browns’ top-two defensive line players is especially concerning given the team’s transition from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 under new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. While Williams led a top-10 run defense in both average DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs last season, without Shelton he’ll be replacing two of PFF’s top-21 interior defenders against the run in Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers with Jamie Meder (106/115 interior defender against the run) and undrafted rookie Trevon Coley.
Aside from the Browns’ own question marks, they face a beastly Steelers offensive line that returns all five starters and hasn’t ranked lower than eighth in adjusted line yards over the past three seasons. Bell is back after missing the entire preseason due to a contract dispute, but a reduced workload might be wishful thinking on the Browns’ part; he’s averaged 24.5 touches per game on at least 88 percent of the Steelers’ running back snaps during his last two early-season returns from suspensions.
Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy) vs. New York Jets
The Bills’ decision to part ways with backup running backs Mike Gillislee and Jonathan Williams clears the way for Shady to work as the full-time three-down back. This is great news for McCoy considering the Bills return all five linemen from a unit that averaged a league-high 2.88 YBC last season, although they’ll need to get by without noted run game guru Anthony Lynn (now head coach of the Chargers). It’s a great spot for Shady (as Matthew Freedman noted in his low-owned NFL DFS pivots column), as he’s averaged 24.71 DraftKings and 21.15 FanDuel PPG with +7.96 and +7.47 Plus/Minus values while hitting his salary-adjusted expectations in 75.0 percent of his games as a home favorite since 2015. McCoy will also benefit from Tyrod Taylor‘s (probable) presence . . .
Meanwhile, the Jets’ run-stuffing funnel defense has moved on from Sheldon Richardson, PFF’s No. 5 edge defender against the run last season. The Jets have boasted the league’s No. 1 rush defense in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) during each of head coach Todd Bowles’ first two seasons, but this didn’t stop them from allowing the 15th-most DraftKings PPG to running backs in 2016. Shady has the potential to offer the most volume on the slate behind only David Johnson and Bell, and his projected ownership of 17-20 percent is significantly lower than that of #TeamJamEmIn.
This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Leonard Fournette) vs. Houston Texans
The loss of A.J. Bouye hurts the Texans secondary, but the return of J.J. Watt is a pretty solid consolation prize. Despite missing the only human to ever record two 20-plus sack seasons, the Texans defense ranked fourth in DVOA and made the playoffs despite 15 games from Brock WOATweiler. Still, they did miss Watt’s presence at left defensive end, as they ranked among the bottom-six defenses in adjusted line yards allowed to the right side of the line. Jadeveon Clowney is expected to see more time at his natural 3-4 edge rusher position and helped the Texans ranked fifth in adjusted line yards on the left side of the line last season.
On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars took a page out of the Cowboys’ playbook by drafting a beastly running back No. 4 overall – but skipped the part where they compile an elite offensive line. Outside of solid tackle Jermey Parnell and top-five center Brandon Linder, the Jaguars will start 2017 second-round pick Cam Robinson and two guards graded outside the top-40 by PFF in run blocking last season. Fournette had the best Speed Score among all running backs in the 2017 draft and has demonstrated workhorse ability in college, but even he may not be able to evade the bevy of talented defenders hounding the line not respecting Blake Bortles‘ deep-ball ability.
Honorable Mentions
- Minnesota Vikings (Dalvin Cook) vs. New Orleans Saints: The Vikings’ starting tackles played a combined six games last season, and their healthy and newly-financed unit are home favorites against a perennial bottom-five scoring defense replacing five starters in the front seven alone. Cook, the FBS’s leader in elusive rating (PFF), is set for a three-down role.
- Arizona Cardinals (David Johnson) vs. Detroit Lions: The Lions allowed the fourth-highest YBC rate last season and in Week 1 get Johnson, who gained the second-most yards after contact in 2016. The Cardinals have posted top-seven marks in adjusted line yards in consecutive seasons. Here’s to hoping Johnson gets his offseason wish of 30 touches per game (last season he averaged 23.3).
- Tennessee Titans (DeMarco Murray) vs. Oakland Raiders: The fourth-best offensive line in adjusted line yards returns all five starters and gets a mostly-unchanged Raiders front seven that ranked among the bottom-six teams in yards allowed before contact last season. Khalil Mack (knee) didn’t practice Wednesday, and Murray joined DJ and Bell last season as the only backs to have over 75 percent of their team’s carries and targets.
- Cincinnati Bengals RBs vs. Baltimore Ravens: Jeremy Hill is expected to work as the team’s starter, with Giovani Bernard (healthy after offseason knee surgery) and rookie Joe Mixon likely splitting pass-down duties. The Bengals offensive line ranked among the bottom-10 teams in YBC last season and lost their best tackle in Whitworth and guard in Kevin Zeitler. The Ravens’ No. 5 defense in rush DVOA from last year awaits.
- Dallas Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) vs. New York Giants: There’s no telling how many carries the Cowboys may feed Zeke on his one-game lease, but the Giants return nine of 11 starters from a defense that held Zeke to his only two finishes outside of the top-14 fantasy backs last season.
