Despite making up at least 45 percent of a team’s offense on any given play, the offensive line is essentially ignored when it comes to fantasy football. It’ll probably take a while for my long-standing dream of pancakes and hurries counting on DraftKings to come to fruition, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still profit based on the performances of the big uglies. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Arizona Cardinals Offensive Line vs. Detroit Lions
The Cardinals’ offensive line took a step back last season, finishing 21st in adjusted sack rate after ranking among the top-six lines during each of the previous two seasons. Only tackle Jared Veldheer and guard Mike Iupati remain from the great 2014-2015 lines, and the biggest offseason move was moving 2015 first-round pick D.J. Humphries to left tackle. Still, the unit improved as last season went on, allowing 1.42 fewer sacks per game during Carson Palmer‘s final seven games compared to his first eight.
Although the Cardinals’ offensive line isn’t exactly bulletproof, the Lions don’t have artillery to shoot. Defensive tackles Haloti Ngata and A’Shawn Robinson are both run-stuffers who ranked outside of the top-45 interior pass-rushing defenders last season (PFF). Ezekiel Ansah has the size and athleticism to be a terror off the edge, but his sack total dropped by 12.5 last season due in part to a high ankle sprain. Ansah missed all of training camp with another ankle injury (he’s questionable for Sunday) and is expected to line up alongside Cornelius Washington, a former sixth-round pick who recorded 21 tackles in three seasons with the Bears. Kerry Hyder, the team’s leader in sacks from a season ago with eight, is out for the season with an Achilles tear.
The Lions generated just 11.1 pressures per game last season – the second-lowest mark in the league. While Palmer took the third-most hits in the league, this was partially a side effect of Bruce Arians’ “no risk it, no biscuit” mentality: Only Cam Newton has averaged a higher average target depth over the past two seasons. Palmer’s willingness to attack defenses downfield makes his protection vital, and he ranked among the top-10 quarterbacks in yards per attempt differential when pressured versus when he was kept clean (PFF). With mismatches abound in the secondary, failure to make Palmer uncomfortable could prove to be costly Sunday for the Lions.
Since opening at -2.5 for the Lions, the line has swung 4.5 points the Cardinals’ way. Monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Cardinals every week, and study our DFS Contests Dashboard throughout the season to see how contrarian a Cardinals stack makes your tournament rosters. Consult our Correlations Matrix to get a sense of Palmer’s best stacking partners, and use our Lineup Builder to stack Palmer with his receivers.
Los Angeles Chargers Defensive Line vs. Denver Broncos
The Chargers generated pressure at a top-10 rate last season. They were led by edge rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, each of whom posted a top-six PRP (pass rush productivity) score. Ingram may have had a slow start to his career, but he’s tied for 12th in the league with 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons; only Khalil Mack, Von Miller, and Ryan Kerrigan racked up more pressures among all 3-4 linebackers in 2016. Bosa is just as dangerous, as his versatility helped him rank among the top-15 edge defenders in PRP when rushing from both the left and right side.
This is all bad news for Trevor Siemian and a Broncos offensive line replacing three starters from a unit that ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate last season. First-round pick Garett Bolles will work at left tackle, ex-Cowboy Ron Leary will fill in at right guard, and one of PFF’s bottom-seven pass-blocking tackles in Ty Sambrailo and Donald Stephenson will ‘win’ the right tackle job. Last season Siemian managed to throw for just 506 yards and one touchdown on 88 pass attempts against a Jason Verrett-less Chargers secondary. He was a bad quarterback in most situations last season, but his bottom-10 yards per attempt rate under pressure doesn’t inspire much confidence. Surprisingly, Siemian posted the lowest sack rate in the NFL last year when blitzed, but this makes the Chargers defense even scarier considering they ranked among the bottom-half of the league in blitzes last season – but top-12 in pressures.
Chicago Bears Defensive Line vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons boast the slate’s second-highest implied total, but there’s reason to believe the Bears won’t be a complete cake walk for them. Per Football Outsiders, the Bears’ 155.1 adjusted games lost (the number of games lost to injury) in 2016 was the highest mark since 2000. What that means: The defense was ravaged by injuries and suspension. Outside linebackers Pernell McPhee and Leonard Floyd combined to miss 11 games last season but ranked among the top-13 3-4 outside linebackers in PRP. The Bears return all seven starters from their front seven, a unit which includes defensive end Akiem Hicks, whose 49 pressures were tied for the ninth-most among all interior defenders last season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Floyd, the ninth-overall pick in the 2016 draft, take a leap this season as his athleticism begins to combine with an NFL body:
The Bears allowed -7.5 percent completion rate and -0.5 yards per attempt differentials at home last season. Falcons QB Matt Ryan has had notable home/road splits, too, ranking seventh and sixth among all quarterbacks in DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus at home since 2014 – but just 12th and 17th on the road, respectively (per our Trends tool). The Falcons allowed the 23rd-highest adjusted sack rate in 2016, and Ryan was one of just five quarterbacks to post a better QB rating when releasing the ball in 2.6 seconds or more compared to 2.5 seconds or less. Ryan doesn’t like to get rid of the ball quickly, and he ranked second behind only Drew Brees in touchdown pass differential when under pressure versus when kept clean last season. The Falcons will place their trust in Jake Matthews and Ryan Schraeder, each of whom ranked outside the top-45 tackles in pass-blocking efficiency last season, to keep Ryan upright.
This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. Be sure to utilize the FantasyLabs Tools and Models to identify any potential fade situations in the upcoming week.
Honorable Mentions:
- Denver Broncos Defensive Line vs. Los Angeles Chargers: DeMarcus Ware (retired) and Shane Ray (wrist) aren’t available, but that doesn’t mean Von Miller can’t wreak havoc on his own. Miller generated the fourth-most total pressures last season among all edge defenders and is expected to see a lot of right tackle Joe Barksdale, who Miller has beaten for five sacks in four games since 2015. Rivers posted a worse QB rating than Siemian under pressure last season and has averaged 6.24 fewer DraftKings PPG and 1.78 yards per attempt against the Broncos since 2014.
- Minnesota Vikings Offensive Line vs. New Orleans Saints: The Saints blitzed at a top-five rate last season but were the only team in that group to not achieve at least 14 pressures per game (they averaged 13.3). The Saints replaced all four starting linebackers from a unit that ranked among the bottom-six defenses in DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks last season. Bradford’s 87.7 QB rating under pressure (2nd) and average of 2.36 seconds to throw (8th) should help him handle any duress and exploit a Saints secondary consisting of three cornerbacks who combined to start 14 total games last season.
