A pitcher can earn a quality start by completing at least six innings and allowing no more than three earned runs. This stat is noteworthy on its own, but its actually valuable on FanDuel, where a quality start is worth four fantasy points.
Targeting pitchers consistently able to rack up quality starts seems like it should lead to value. Then again, quality starts are worth just one point more than a single strikeout or inning pitched on FanDuel, and DraftKings doesn’t even reward points for the achievement. Are elite-quality start pitchers valuable DFS assets? Let’s find out.
Quality Start Percentile
Using our Trends tool, we can search for pitchers who have racked up quality starts at an elite rate (in the 80th percentile):
Pitchers with high quality start rates have thrived since 2014 — especially on FanDuel, where they’ve posted Plus/Minus values greater than +1.45 in each of the past two seasons. Intriguingly, this group of pitchers had an average ownership of just 11.7 percent on FanDuel compared to 16.9 percent on DraftKings last season. Pro subscribers can view ownership data in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
While it’s useful to know that quality starts have led to DFS value, it’s not surprising that the top-20 percent of pitchers in quality start rate have thrived. How do pitchers with the highest quality start rates compare to pitchers with the highest WHIP and strikeout rates?
Quality Starts vs. WHIP vs. Strikeouts
The following chart shows the performance of pitchers in the top quintile of quality starts, WHIP, and strikeouts from 2014 to 2016:
The best pitchers at racking up quality starts have been great, but so have the pitchers with the highest strikeout and WHIP rates. The high-strikeout pitchers have been the most productive, but all three groups have provided positive value with solid Consistency Ratings.
Quality starts are great, but clearly they’re not everything. What happens when we look for pitchers who rack up quality starts and also have elite strikeout and WHIP rates?
Quality Starts with High WHIP and K/9 Rates
Targeting the upper echelon of pitchers in quality starts, strikeouts, and WHIP has historically returned a ton of value on both DraftKings and FanDuel:
Pitchers in the top quintile in all three categories have produced good value, although such pitchers are relatively rare. In their absence, high-strikeout pitchers who get quality starts are good substitutes.
In a previous piece on the differences in scoring between DraftKings and FanDuel, I noted that pitchers with low WHIPs and ERAs, as well as pitchers with lots of innings and strikeouts, typically have high quality start percentages. Quality starts are valuable, but so are high strikeout and low WHIP rates. Look to roster pitchers who have a positive blend of these statistics.
Takeaways
Let’s go over a few DFS takeaways:
- Pitchers who pick up quality starts have been solid DFS options.
- All else being equal, pitchers with elite WHIP and strikeout rates have performed better than pitchers with elite quality start rates.
- The most value has come from pitchers with high strikeout, WHIP, and quality start rates, although they are rare. Pitchers with high strikeout and quality start rates have been preferable to pitchers with high WHIP and quality start rates.
The extra four-point bonus for a quality start on FanDuel is nice to have, but pitchers with high quality start rates have thrived across the industry. It makes sense that limiting runs while going deep into games leads to pitching success.
Within our Player Models, we provide each pitcher’s strikeout, WHIP, and quality start rates for the past 12 months. When you’re constructing rosters with our Lineup Builder, consider prioritizing pitchers who consistently rack up quality starts and also have high strikeout upside to get the best of both worlds.
