In the weekly Fantasy Trends, we leverage the Trends tool to find quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs with notable data points for the upcoming main slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
This young NFL season has featured some impressive quarterback performances, most notably by sophomore sensation Patrick Mahomes. Sure, Mahomes garnered significant offseason hype, but no analyst projected him to throw 13 touchdowns in his first three games. He’s currently on pace to throw for 69 touchdowns this season, which would shatter Peyton Manning’s single-season NFL record of 55. But this level of performance is obviously not sustainable for an entire season.
Still, Mahomes’ breakthrough performance raises important questions for DFS players. How do we adjust our projections for Mahomes based on his recent elite production? Should we ride the hot hand or brace for statistical regression to Mahomes’ true mean (whatever that is)? More broadly, what does historical data say about a quarterback’s performance coming off a big game — or after a lousy one? Does DraftKings overreact and lower (or raise) such players’ salaries too much?
To investigate these questions, I used our Trends tool to filter quarterbacks into categories based on prior points scored and prior Plus/Minus. A player’s prior points refers to his DraftKings point total from the previous week. His prior Plus/Minus refers to his DraftKings points above or below expectation based on his DraftKings salary from the previous week.
I’ll begin my analysis by focusing on prior points only. When a quarterback has a bad performance the previous week, should we expect him to continue to perform poorly the next week? Conversely, if a quarterback posts an elite passing line one week, how generalizable is that performance to his next matchup?
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Trend: Prior Points
Quarterbacks who earn less than 11.52 DraftKings points in a given week represent the bottom 25% of all quarterback fantasy performances in the FantasyLabs database. These players have low ownership, low Consistency, and have a poor expected outcome for their subsequent matchup. They feature a paltry Plus/Minus of -0.69 for their next matchup and should be avoided in most DFS lineups.
Quarterbacks who score in the top 25% of all quarterback fantasy performances generally maintain that production in their next game. As expected, they have the highest expected points, actual points, and ownership of the four quarterback categories in our analysis. However, they do not boast the highest Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks. That honor belongs to quarterbacks in the 50th to 75th percentile range.
Quarterbacks who perform slightly above expectations the previous week boast a Plus/Minus of +0.57. These quarterbacks also feature substantially lower ownership (4.6%) than top 25th percentile performers (6.9%). If you’re looking for quarterback value, consider targeting quarterbacks in this range.
Of course, prior points isn’t the end of the conversation. If a quarterback is expected to perform below average historically based on his DraftKings price, and he indeed posts a subpar fantasy performance, that doesn’t really tell us much about his outlook for the following week. However, if a quarterback exceeds or fails to meet expectation by a significant margin, how do we interpret that unexpected result? Should we alter our projections for that player moving forward, and if so, by how much?
Trend: Prior Plus/Minus
Now this is more interesting. Quarterbacks who post a below-average Plus/Minus in their previous game do not see any decline in Plus/Minus for the following week. Also interestingly, top-25th percentile performers boast a Plus/Minus of only +0.21 in their next game, which is not strong enough to warrant our attention.
However, once again, the “above-average” range (50th to 75th percentile) of quarterbacks have the best week-over-week metrics. These quarterbacks boast a Plus/Minus of +0.72, have a Consistency of 51.4%, and their average actual points for the following week rivals the top 25th percentile. Just like in our analysis of prior points scored, quarterbacks in this range provide the most DFS value based on their expectations.
Now, let’s combine our two metrics to evaluate quarterback performance in a more nuanced way. What if a quarterback posts a historically elite fantasy performance and he had a historically elite Plus/Minus in the process? What about the inverse of that, and all the iterations in between?
Trend: Prior Points & Prior Plus/Minus
When we combine both metrics together, 50th to 75th percentile quarterback performers definitively separate themselves from the pack. They boast a Plus Minus of +1.16 and Consistency of 51.5% while also featuring relatively low ownership (4.5%). When evaluating previous quarterback performance, combining prior points and prior Plus/Minus together amplifies these quarterbacks’ expected value.
There’s also an intuitive takeaway here that goes beyond the numbers. Players who perform slightly above expectations may not be fairly priced in the DFS marketplace, but their performance isn’t drastic enough to warrant significant salary adjustments. Quarterbacks who fit this description may be undervalued by comparison to the very top of their position’s salary tier.
By contrast, players who explode for a huge fantasy performance one week may experience substantial salary adjustment and statistical regression to their mean the following week. Even though Mahomes continues to roll this season, he seems to be an outlier in our trend. More consistent DFS value is historically found with players just below his tier.
Players Who Fit Our Trend This Week
The following quarterbacks posted a prior points total and prior Plus/Minus between the 50th and 75th percentile of quarterback performances last week. Consider rostering these players to gain exposure to their +1.16 historical Plus/Minus:
- Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 DraftKings)
- Philip Rivers ($6,500 DraftKings)
- Matthew Stafford ($5,700 DraftKings)
- Eli Manning ($5,600 DraftKings)
- Andy Dalton ($5,400 DraftKings)
- Derek Carr ($5,100 DraftKings)
There are obviously a lot of quarterbacks who exist in the “below-average” tiers of performers. Below, I’ve highlighted some of the most notable players who posted poor prior points and prior Plus/Minus in their previous game. The following players don’t necessarily warrant fade consideration based on our analysis, but they also don’t offer exposure to positive historical Plus/Minus marks.
- Tom Brady ($6,700 DraftKings)
- Case Keenum ($5,600 DraftKings)
- Blake Bortles ($5,200 DraftKings)
- Mitchell Trubisky ($5,200 DraftKings)
- Sam Darnold ($4,500 DraftKings)
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
Photo Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured Above: Patrick Mahomes
