Honda Classic PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

After back-to-back elevated events won by elite players, the PGA TOUR heads to PGA National to begin its Florida swing and play the Honda Classic.

The event will be a major challenge for golfers, as PGA National is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR.

PGA National is a 7,125-yard par 70 and features Bermudagrass greens. Originally a Tom Fazio design, it was redesigned by Jack Nicklaus. The course features the infamous “Bear Trap” on holes 15-17, three of the toughest holes on TOUR. Wind tends to play a factor, which makes the scoring even more challenging.

The field is weak, which is no surprise given how strong the recent schedule has been and the fact that another elevated event (API) and The PLAYERS Championship is right around the corner. However, there are still some solid players in the field, including Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Sepp Straka, Aaron Wise, and Min Woo Lee.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

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Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has been far and away the biggest indicator of the winner at PGA National. Hitting the target is especially important with all of the water at the course.

High-end target: Shane Lowry — $10,400 (12th SG: Approach)
Mid-range target: Ben Griffin — $7,900 (6th SG: Approach)
Value target: Russell Knox — $7,200 (1st SG: Approach)

Good Drives Gained

Good drives will be very important this week.

Golfers who patiently make their way around the course and stay disciplined will be rewarded. Spraying it off of the tee will be a major issue around PGA National, and the strokes will add up in a hurry.

High-end target: Matt Kuchar — $9,300 (9th Good Drives Gained)
Mid-range target: Hayden Buckley— $7,600 (5th Good Drives Gained)
Value target: Dylan Wu— $6,600 (4th Good Drives Gained)

Strokes Gained: Par 4

Par 4 scoring is especially important at PGA National, with only two par 5s on the course. Golfers will need to find a way to score on the par 4s if they want to win the tournament.

Holes 1, 4, 8, and 13 are the par 4s that generate the most birdies.

High-end target: Thomas Detry— $9,000 (1st SG: Par 4)
Mid-range target: Hayden Buckley— $7,600 (3rd SG: Par 4)
Value target: Danny Willett — $7,400 (9th SG: Par 4)

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Historically, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking has been much more indicative of success at PGA National than Strokes Gained: Short Game. The difficult track rewards a solid tee-to-green game, which is the key to avoiding trouble.

The winning score will likely stay in the single digits, so an extremely hot putter isn’t all that predictive.

High-end target: Sungjae Im — $10,700 (7th SG: Ball Striking)
Mid-range target: Jhonnatan Vegas — $8,600 (4th SG: Ball Striking)
Value target: Erik Van Rooyen — $7,300 (8th SG: Ball Striking)

Strokes Gained: Difficult Conditions

PGA National is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. Including this stat will highlight some players who thrive when the scoring is difficult.

High-end target: Shane Lowry — $10,400 (1st Strokes Gained: Difficult Conditions)
Mid-range target: Ben Griffin — $7,900 (12th Strokes Gained: Difficult Conditions)
Value target: Brent Grant — $6,400 (8th Strokes Gained: Difficult Conditions)

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