Home ice advantage in hockey is crucial because the home team has the luxury of last change to exploit matchups. For instance, the home team could place a shutdown defensive player against a top goal-scorer.
Does every team perform better at home? No. Let’s dig deeper into home ice advantage in NHL.
Baseline Home/Road Splits
Per our Trends tool, skaters (both forwards and defensemen) at home on the power play (PP) see a significant boost in Plus/Minus.
Is there a specific data point explaining this split? Perhaps crowd size has a direct impact on winning percentage and fantasy performance.
Percent Capacity and Winning Percentage
Having a large arena is counterproductive if a team consistently fails to fill it to capacity. The atmosphere in a 10,000-seat arena that is filled to capacity is drastically different than a 20,000-seat arena with 10,000 fans. The average percent capacity of an arena should be a decent indicator of overall atmosphere and rowdiness.
Perhaps we can gain more clarity on home ice advantage by considering the average percent capacity and home ice win percentage? The following chart is a linear display of that data over the past five NHL seasons:
No dice.
There’s no correlation between high win percentage and high average attendance.
Is Last Change Really That Important?
Yes, #micdrop. The importance of last change in hockey cannot be overstated.
Before every face-off, the referee puts his hand in the air after the visiting team puts their players on the ice. This signifies that the visiting team can no longer change players and the home team is free to deploy whatever line or defensive pairing it wishes wish, enabling it to take into account the visiting players on the ice.
This is a massive edge in real hockey. Focused on DFS and power play players, we can easily forget that every role is different. Some players make their money specifically by shutting down players like Alex Ovechkin and playing good defense against the top line every single night.
On the road there is little a coach can do to hide his star players from defensive specialists. That’s the real reason we target players at home. It allows players to find better matchups.
For example, Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan wants to keep Sidney Crosby away from Patrice Bergeron — a shut-down center who blocks a ton of shots.
On the road, there’s not a lot Sullivan can do after the ref raises his hand and Bergeron’s line comes on the ice.
At home, Sullivan could in theory wait for an offensive zone face-off without Bergeron on the ice to roll out Crosby’s line. This could lead to valuable zone time for Crosby away from the opposing team’s top defender.
The sample is small, but Crosby’s FanDuel home/away splits are substantial against Bergeron and the Bruins, a familiar Eastern Conference foe:
What Teams Are Outliers in 2016-17?
Teams that win far more often at home than on the road could give us an idea of what arena provides the greatest home ice advantage.
The following chart displays the bottom- and top-three teams in home/road win percentage.
There we go. There are some very bad teams that play considerably better at home and some very good teams that play slightly better on the road. This information provides a large edge.
The New York Rangers have been considerably better away from Madison Square Garden. The Edmonton Oilers are much improved this year — third in the Pacific Division — but they have also been better on the road than at home.
The Colorado Avalanche are bad, so bad that they lost ten games in a row at home this season from November 23rd to Jan 1st.
The Pittsburgh Penguins won the Stanley Cup last year and are one of the best teams in the league this year. They are also drastically better at home. The Canucks are not a good team overall, but a higher percentage of their wins have come at home. The Carolina Hurricanes have the worst percent capacity percentage of any team in the NHL by a large margin. Bizarrely, they tend to play well at home
Should players from these teams be targeted or avoided in DFS?
NYR, EDM, COL
PIT, VAN, CAR
This is just a six-team sample — but it suggests there’s an edge in targeting the tails of home/road win percentages.
PP skaters on the Rangers, Oilers, and Avalanche typically do about as well on the road as the average player does at home. As a result, they could provide a leverage opportunity in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at lower ownership. (By the way, be sure to check out our DFS Ownership Dashboard for NHL.)
In contrast, PP skaters on the Penguins, Canucks, and Hurricanes provide far more value at home than the average player does.
Conclusion
Attendance percent capacity has no correlation with home win percentage. The real edage for home teams is last change. Teams with drastic home/road splits can offer a ton of value in Plus/Minus and ownership.
