In Part 1 of this series, we looked at historical opportunity stats as a predictive tool for RB production, but we mostly focused on RB1s. In this article, we’ll be taking a look at high-floor RB2s instead.
Based on historical opportunity stats for current NFL play-callers, RB2s average around 260 total opportunities per season. Below I’ve highlighted running backs with current ADPs in the RB2 range who have a good chance of hitting that 260-opportunity threshold based on the history of each of their current offensive play-callers.
One quick note: In Part 2 of this series, we took an in-depth look at some of the rookie RBs who could finish as RB2s. Since we’ve already examined this year’s rookie class, I’m excluding rookies from this analysis.
Surefire RB2s
Christian McCaffrey (Current ADP: RB15)
Offensive coordinator Norv Turner is both good and bad for McCaffrey. On the plus side, Turner brings to Carolina an offensive system that stretches the field. Turner’s offensive philosophy is designed to force defenses into frequent nickel packages, leading to second-level mismatches between tight ends and running backs vs. linebackers. This kind of system plays to the strengths of mismatch backs like McCaffrey.
However, Turner’s offensive philosophy also relies on a power running game. This means that new addition C.J. Anderson is likely to receive plenty of work in the Panthers backfield. Also to the detriment of both running backs, Turner’s historical averages for running back opportunities don’t look great. He’s averaged 384.6 total RB opportunities per season (20th in the NFL) and just 289.6 rushes (22nd).
So why do I believe McCaffrey is a lock to achieve at least RB2 status in 2018?
Turner’s offense will primarily be to the detriment of Anderson, who got 273 opportunities last year. In contrast, McCaffrey’s prolific volume as a receiver last year should insulate him from Turner’s poor rushing acumen. In 2017, McCaffrey finished 21st in targets and 14th in receptions among all players. Turner’s pass-happy offense is likely to get McCaffrey the ball in space.
On top of that, many analysts expect McCaffrey to improve on his 117 rush attempts. Turner’s limited RB opportunities may stifle McCaffrey’s rushing ceiling, but his carries are unlikely to decline dramatically. In fact, in-house oddsmaker Sean Koerner actually projects McCaffrey to increase his rushing total in 2018, which bodes well for his fantasy value. Accordingly, McCaffrey’s total opportunities should approach the 260-threshold in 2018. But even if he falls short of 260, his receiving volume should act as a buoy to his RB2 status.
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Kenyan Drake (Current ADP: RB21)
Drake logged 181 opportunities in 2017 despite starting only six games for the Dolphins. With the exit of Jay Ajayi last year, Drake is in line for huge volume in 2018. Just look at previous RB1s in Gase’s offense.
Gase has consistently provided his RB1s with ample volume. Barring injury, Drake should reach the 260-opportunity threshold, and he actually has the potential to hit the 300-opportunity threshold averaged by top-five RBs over the last six years.
Of course, that assumes he’s the lead back, but the Dolphins brought in Frank Gore this offseason, and they also drafted Kallen Ballage out of Arizona State. Concerns about a time share are appropriate. In this vein, Sean Koerner does not project Drake to hit 260 opportunities. Nonetheless, I believe Gase’s coaching history points to his preference to rely primarily on one back in an early-down, gap-running scheme.
Available as the RB21 off the board, Drake is being under-drafted based on his upside. Monitor the Dolphins backfield through the rest of camp, but you should still view Drake as a high-probability RB2 with more upside than most.
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Lamar Miller (Current ADP: RB23)
Miller isn’t a sexy pick. But come on, people: His projected workload is still massive!
In 2016, Miller had 307 opportunities through 14 games, finishing the year as RB18. Last year he hit 283 opportunities in 16 games despite losing quarterback Deshaun Watson in Week 9, and he finished as RB14. Even if D’Onta Foreman (Achilles) takes a step forward whenever he returns from injury, head coach Bill O’Brien’s offense still has plenty of opportunities to go around.
Since 2014, O’Brien’s offenses have averaged 470.5 opportunities for running backs per year, which ranks fifth among active NFL coaches. His backfields have also averaged a staggering 396.25 rush attempts per season, which ranks first in the NFL.
Even if Miller cedes touches to Foreman, with 470.5 opportunities to go around, Miller is nearly guaranteed to hit the 260-opportunity threshold again. Every offseason, analysts downgrade Miller based on his poor rushing average or touchdown rate, but each regular season he compensates for his inefficiencies with volume. Sean Koerner’s projections for Miller also have him locked in for around 260 opportunities this season.
Borderline Cases
Joe Mixon (Current ADP: RB16)
Mixon is in a tough spot in Cincinnati. OC Bill Lazor isn’t exactly kind to running backs. Lazor ranks dead last among active NFL coaches in RB rush attempts and opportunities per season. But in spite of Lazor’s history, there is cause to be bullish on Mixon, who received only 212 opportunities in 2017 but still finished as RB32. On top of that, Mixon had only four total touchdowns, which falls well below Lazor’s historical backfield average of 10 per season. Mixon is a big candidate for touchdown progression to the mean, and he’s also a freak athlete.
Furthermore, the Bengals and Lazor have repeatedly stated their commitment to Mixon, and pressure is on the Bengals coaching staff to make good on the second-round pick they invested in him last year. Mixon’s performance last year suggests that his floor is as a weekly flex play even though he saw relatively little opportunity to show his potential in 2017.
As the saying goes, when you hit rock bottom, the only way to go is up. Mixon’s 2017 campaign was definitely rock bottom for RB1 opportunities, and Lazor must adapt in 2018 if he wishes to keep his job. Sean Koerner is even more bullish on Mixon, projecting him beyond the 260-opportunity threshold that defines the RB2 class. Mixon is an elite talent, but I’m a little more cautious due to Lazor’s frustrating historical RB usage.
Derrick Henry (Current ADP: RB17)
Speaking of weird RB situations: How about Henry? He lived in fantasy purgatory for his first two NFL seasons, forced to split time with DeMarco Murray. Then, when it finally seemed as if he would be the clear lead back for 2018, the Titans signed Dion Lewis, who led the Patriots backfield last year. OC Matt LaFleur has indicated that Henry and Lewis will split the workload. Ouch.
Still, prevailing sentiment is that Henry will be the early-down and goal-line back, and that’s an improvement relative to the opportunity he had in his first two years. Even with Lewis competing for touches, the Lewis-Henry pairing is likely to be more complementary than the Murray-Henry backfield ever was.
What information can we glean about LaFleur’s offensive scheme and Henry’s potential workload? Last year in Los Angeles, Todd Gurley paced for 400 total opportunities in LaFleur’s offense. Granted, Gurley is one of the best running backs in the NFL, but that’s still impressive volume for a backfield.
LaFleur’s offense last year also utilized a lot of play action and depth routes to stretch the field. This kind of offensive philosophy demands an emphasis on the run game first in order to put defenses in man coverage or cover 2.
For LaFleur to run a similar scheme in Tennessee, he’ll need to rely on a power running game between the tackles to force defenses to commit an extra defender to the box. The obvious choice, therefore, is to use the threat of Henry’s size and speed to unlock the rest of the offense. However, LaFleur comes from the Shanahan/Kubiak coaching tree, and based on last year’s play calling he’s more likely to utilize more zone-running schemes with Henry than most people might expect. Don’t be surprised if LaFleur schemes to get Henry to the edge frequently.
If that proves to be the case, then Lewis will likely be the change-of-pace back or even spot up at the wing depending on the formation. Given LaFleur’s slower offensive pace, Henry is likely to fall just short of the 260-opportunity threshold, but he may compensate with increased touchdown production. Koerner’s projections also leave Henry short of the 260-opportunity threshold.
While there’s an argument to be made that Lewis is the Titans back to draft at his ADP, Henry’s ceiling is much higher. If Henry’s ADP begins to slip, he could provide value.
Jay Ajayi (Current ADP: RB18)
What can we expect from Ajayi in 2018, now that he’s had a full offseason to digest the Eagles playbook and assimilate to a new offensive scheme? Let’s look at HC Doug Pederson’s track record. Since 2013, Pederson’s backfields have averaged 404.4 opportunities per season (16th in the NFL) and 17.0 total touchdowns per season (third).
During that time, Pederson has never given over 200 total opportunities to any running back not named Jamaal Charles. Also during that time, RB2s in Pederson’s offense have averaged 115.2 opportunities and 5.4 touchdowns per season. Like his mentor, Andy Reid, Pederson has consistently utilized RB2s in his offense, and he’s offered more opportunities to pass-catching backs when he’s had them.
By any measure, Ajayi is not a huge receiving threat. With Darren Sproles returning in 2018 from a torn ACL suffered last season, Ajayi is unlikely to see much playing time in passing situations, so if he’s going to reach the 260-opportunities threshold it’s going to have to be largely as a runner.
In Pederson’s five play-calling seasons, he has never given a running back 260 carries. Even Charles didn’t get 260 carries in his stellar 2013 campaign, when he finished as the No. 1 back in fantasy. Unsurprisingly, Koerner projects Ajayi to fall just short of 260 opportunities.
However, Pederson’s backfields have averaged 17.0 total touchdowns per season, and Ajayi has a shot to get many of those, which could compensate for his overall lack of opportunities. This makes Ajayi a borderline case for me. As the RB18 off the board, he’s probably being drafted fairly.
Alex Collins (Current ADP: RB20)
Collins had a strange 2017. He played only 379 snaps (34.9% of Baltimore’s total), but in those snaps he earned 248 total opportunities. That means that OC Marty Mornhinweg gave Collins the ball 65.4% of the time he was on the field. That’s completely ridiculous. We see that kind of usage among goal-line backs and specialists only, not RB1s.
Collins’ 379 snaps ranked 38th among backs last year, yet he produced RB16 numbers. For some perspective on how few snaps that really is, Le’Veon Bell had 943 snaps last year in 15 games.
But before you jump all over Collins, there is cause to temper expectations. Javorius Allen still exists. Since 2012, Mornhinweg has always utilized two running backs, even when he had LeSean McCoy (backup Bryce Brown had 134 opportunities and four touchdowns in 2012). With the Jets, Mornhinweg split the work between Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory. Last year, he split the load between Collins and Allen.
Allen actually played more snaps last year due to his ability to catch the ball (although he did see less action in the second half of the season). Allen’s receiving role likely won’t disappear. Even if Collins’ snap total increases, it probably won’t be more than 500 snaps or so (RB1s have averaged around that through Mornhinweg’s career).
Furthermore, his 65.4% usage rate isn’t sustainable, and with the return of Kenneth Dixon to the backfield, Collins may see added competition for his early-down touches.
It’s worth noting how consistent Mornhinweg has been in platooning backs. Take a look at RB1s in his offense since 2012.
That’s a really tight spread, and Collins is unlikely to be the exception in 2018. Altogether I’m projecting Collins to finish just below 260 opportunities, as is Koerner. He’s a borderline RB2 for me. At RB20 off the board, he’s slightly over-drafted.
Stay tuned for Part 4 of my series on historical opportunity statistics where I break down running backs primed for TD regression in 2018.
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Kenyan Drake
