After so much craziness in the first five weeks of the fantasy football season, it seems like we finally got a fairly chalky week across the board. Of course, the running back position continues to be just ridiculous – the chalk hit (Freeman and Ivory), but the fact that they are considered the chalk on a weekly basis is something I think no one was expecting before the season.
Fantasy football is tough – you have to figure out which plays will repeat themselves and which won’t. And honestly, sometimes it just makes no sense. I think that’s important to remember – it’s not just “process over results” to console yourself. Also remember that sports, and especially ones like the NFL and MLB, are incredibly volatile. It’s why they’re so fun and so frustrating.
Take my thought process over Devonta Freeman the last several weeks. It genuinely makes me look like a madman…
Week 3: Fade Freeman. He wasn’t good last year and the Falcons obviously agree because Tevin.
Week 4: Okay, good game, but fluky. Fade again and this will work out well.
Week 5: Alright, so the fading hasn’t worked but it’s been because of fluky matchups. He’s got the Redskins this week and they’re really good against the run. So fade.
Week 6: Okay, I have no clue how to handle Freeman. Thank goodness he’s in the Thursday slate so I don’t have to deal with this.
*I play Adrian Peterson and Eddie Lacy in my cash lineup.*
Week 7: Thank the heavens that Freeman is back in the regular slate. First cash-game insertion.
I mean, what’s the matter with me?
Quarterbacks
Top plays: Matthew Stafford (37.9 DKFP), Philip Rivers (31.1 DKFP), Andrew Luck (31.0 DKFP)
I was high on Stafford – well, mostly the Lions in general – entering this week and he didn’t let me down. His two main receivers, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, were both at the top of my TASER metric list on the year, and the regression that we were expecting came in a big way. Sure, Stafford was helped a bit by going into overtime, but he still had an excellent game, finishing with 405 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Calvin finally looked Megatrony again; let’s see if they can sustain the offense going forward.
Here are the last three games for Rivers: 358 yards and 3 TDs against the Browns, 365 yards and 2 TDs against the Steelers, and 503 yards and 2 TDs against the Packers. Rivers has quietly had an excellent fantasy season so far and likely can sustain this going forward, at least this week. Rivers gets the Oakland Raiders on the road, which is actually maybe a good thing for the Chargers who have a notably bad home crowd. The Raiders are beyond terrible against TEs and Rivers’ favorite target is Antonio Gates.
Andrew Luck was actually my favorite GPP tournament play of the weekend – FanDuel Thursday data hinted that he would be underowned for a couple of reasons, probably: his early-season struggles and the fact that the public was so on the Patriots. However, we know that Luck is an elite QB, even with a couple weeks of struggles, and that QBs are better as dogs. Even if you loved the Patriots, that didn’t mean you had to hate the Colts. Sometimes we get into that way of thinking and it can hurt us at times.
Running Backs
Top plays: Devonta Freeman (38.6 DKFP), Chris Ivory (31.6 DKFP), James Starks (27.7 DKFP)
I’ve already written way too many words about Freeman this season, including the ones above. I won’t add anymore except that I now have Stockholm Syndrome and love him every week.
When Chris Ivory has been healthy this season, he has been a top running back for the Jets this year. In those three games, he has posted 23, 26, and 32 fantasy points, respectively and has looked fantastic doing so. The Jets offense is actually fairly balanced this year with Ivory in the backfield and the consistent play of Brandon Marshall and Erick Decker in the passing game. Ivory has been a safe cash option and should be moving forward, especially since DraftKings is hesitant to move up his price.
Starks was perhaps the most frustrating guy of the weekend for a lot of users – I know that people were annoyed that LeGarrette Blount got the heavy workload in the Patriots game, but there were at least signs there from previous matchups and the weaknesses in the Colts defense. However, Lacy was a great play at his price across the board and we had gotten no news that the Packers were going to go with heavy Starks instead. This wasn’t fluky because Starks is a fine player, but the process of choosing Lacy in both cash and GPPs was still a good one, in my mind.
Wide Receivers
Top plays: DeAndre Hopkins (39.8 DKFP), Martavis Bryant (35.5 DKFP), Keenan Allen (32.7 DKFP)
Although Julio Jones started off crazy hot to begin the year, Hopkins has probably been the NFL’s best receiver over the course of the year. Just look at his games this year.
vs Chiefs: 9-98-2 on 13 targets
@ Panthers: 5-53-0 on 11 targets
vs Bucs: 8-101-1 on 14 targets
@ Falcons: 9-157-0 on 22 targets
vs Colts: 11-169-0 on 14 targets
@ Jags: 10-148-2 on 15 targets
Even despite the crazy numbers, my TASER metric actually had him as a fairly “unlucky” player (high TASER) because of his massive number of targets yet few TDs. That came this week against the Jags with two scores. Oddly, in all of those games above, Hopkins was in the $7,000 range. This week, DraftKings has finally bumped him up to $8,600 but he’s still an elite cash game option from now on.
The Bryant game is tough – it’s a little fluky because he had both touchdowns from Landry Jones, who we didn’t even know would play in Week 6 and who also only had 12 passes in the entire game. However, it’s not quite as fluky because Bryant did a lot of the work himself – that one long TD was pretty much all YAC and he’s that type of player who can do that at any time. I’m not really sure what to make of the Steelers offense going forward until Big Ben comes back, but Bryant is definitely a talent.
Keenan Allen was an interesting play because of it being Antonio Gates’ second game back for the Chargers. We didn’t see a huge dip in targets in his first game with Gates, but the total production was down, as he finished with a 6-57-0 line in Week 5. However, with Rivers throwing so much, playing the Packers on the road, and the fact that his actual targets didn’t go down, Allen probably should’ve been on our radars a little more than he was.
Tight Ends
Top plays: Ben Watson (31.7 DKFP), Greg Olsen (29.1 DKFP), Jimmy Graham (25.0 DKFP)
Yeah, so, Watson was a fluky play. His targets over the first five weeks: 4, 4, 3, and 5. It was conceivable that the Saints offense might have been a little undervalued – Brees is always better at home, Thursday games have the tendency to be more volatile, and they were underdogs so Brees would have to throw. However, there was no reason to think all of that production would go to Ben Watson. Shrug and move on.
Olsen was a great play this weekend for a couple of reasons – he’s obviously Cam Newton’s favorite target and the Seahawks are actually pretty bad in the middle of the field against TEs, despite their public perception as an elite defense everywhere. Olsen has been really solid all year, especially in PPR settings like DraftKings, and that won’t stop. Newton has been a legitimate MVP candidate this NFL season so far, and Olsen will continue to be his #1 guy.
Graham hasn’t been nearly the guy that we saw in New Orleans, but he still has GPP potential because of his talent. However, that’s probably all he is this season – a GPP dart. His targets in the first five weeks: 8, 2, 8, 5, and 5. There’s just not much consistency there or anything to warrant cash game consideration. The Seahawks offense has struggled this year and their offensive line especially is very poor. Graham will have these occasional games, but they’re going to be hard to predict.
Good luck in Week 7!
