NFL

Hindsight vs Fluke, Week 5: Where Did We Go Wrong?

Week 5 has come and gone and I hope it brought you much success. Without rambling on too much, let’s get to the top plays for each position and my thoughts on them…

Quarterbacks

Top plays: Josh McCown (38.5 DKFP), Eli Manning (32.74 DKFP), Blake Bortles (32.2 DKFP)

On Wednesday’s podcast, I mentioned that McCown is an interesting play because 1) he had hit at least 20 fantasy points in the last two weeks and looked pretty decent doing it, and 2) he has a super low floor and not really much of a high ceiling. Bales and I talked about whether that player was useful at all – he doesn’t theoretically help in cash or GPPs and I believe we decided “probably not.”

So now this is an interesting debate about process versus results – does McCown’s great week leading all QBs in DraftKings fantasy points prove that he has a high ceiling (I guess, in a sense it does because he hit it, but we’re more concerned with weekly ceilings) or that this was a fluky game? The answer I’m prepared to give is I don’t know – I know that seems lame but I’ll explain more once we get down to the Devonta Freeman section because this is a common trend this year.

Manning was a popular play in GPPs and rightfully so – the Giants have actually been kind-of-sneaky-but-now-not-so-sneaky good and they were getting the 49ers at home in a primetime game. The game was actually much closer than expected – the Giants need a late Larry Donnell TD to seal it – but Manning has looked steady this season and the 49ers have been very average against QBs. He wasn’t as safe as Brady in cash, but he was probably one of the top 4-5 options at QB.

Bortles is the probably the most interesting guy to me – I’m still not sure how good he’ll be in real-football terms longterm, but there’s no denying he’s been getting progressively better each week. Check out his player card.

bortles 1

Again, to mention the podcast – and by the way, none of these statements are to toot my own horn by any means…I just bring them up in my writing because they’re subjects I struggle with – I questioned whether QB was so down this year that we should build our lineups in reverse. Bales thought it was an interesting idea since so many people start with a QB and find a correlated receiver. I wonder if going optimal at other positions and then filling in QB with remaining salary (like you’d do with a cheap RB, for example) is becoming more +EV. Just a thought.

 

Running Backs

Top plays: Doug Martin (39.8 DKFP), Devonta Freeman (35.7 DKFP), Justin Forsett (30.0 DKFP)

I’ll be honest – the Martin game came out of nowhere. The Bucs-Jaguars over/under was the second lowest of the day and the Bucs were only slightly favored. There was nothing about the Vegas line or game script that should have put you on Martin. “But Bryan, they were playing the Jags!” Well, I know it’s fun to make fun of the Jags, but they really aren’t as bad as the public thinks. In fact, coming into the game, they ranked fourth overall in the NFL in rush defense. I’m calling fluke.

Okay, it’s officially time for me to admit I was wrong on Devonta Freeman.

You all know the famous Einstein quote (although it’s now incredibly cliché and it may not have even been originally Einstein, but that’s beside the point): “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same result.” Alright, now let’s talk about that.

Most people assume that if you do the same experiment – let’s say the “experiment” here is fading Freeman – over and over again and expect the same result, you’re crazy. However, people forget that even changing a single variable changes the experiment. I still believe it was right to initially fade Devonta – he didn’t prove last year that he was capable of this play. And then because I thought it was a fluke, I wanted to see him play against another team (or variable). He did it again, as you know. However, a very important variable came along last week and it was one I thought would change the whole experiment: the excellent Redskins run defense.

After seeing Devonta perform against three different variables, or defenses, I feel like now I can make the conclusion that my initial hypothesis was incorrect on him. And I’m not ashamed of that – hypotheses are by definition often incorrect. Am I happy to come to a more firm conclusion even if it meant I was initially wrong? Of course. Am I really happy that Devonta is playing on Thursday this week? Of course.

I’ll quickly mention Forsett – he was a no-brainer play this weekend in both cash and GPP, and especially the latter. With Crockett Gillmore and Steve Smith, there was no doubt that the Ravens would heavily rely on their run game, which Forsett gets the majority of touches in. He was very reasonably priced on both sites as well because of some down games to start the year.

 

Wide Receivers

Top plays: Odell Beckham Jr (28.4 DKFP), Anquan Boldin (27.7), Allen Robinson (26.2 DKFP)

Wide receiving scoring was down this week and might be for a little while with Julio Jones battling an injury and Antonio Brown battling Michael Vick. When we got news that Julio could be limited, Odell was the easy pivot in both cash and GPP tournaments and he came through. He did have an injury scare during the game, but is reported to be minor.

Boldin was the surprise of this group as the 49er offense had looked pretty miserable outside of the first game against the Vikings. I actually had some exposure to Boldin, but honestly it was mostly because I was curious whether the 49ers would play the Giants close because it was a primetime game (like the Vikings one). However, it wasn’t a very smart play – Colin Kaepernick has been throwing at receiver’s feet for weeks now. We know it’s good to be contrarian but not stupid. This fit into the latter category probably, but it worked out.

The Jaguars passing offense has produced one of the top receivers for most weeks this year so far, so I think both Robinson and Hurns should be looked at carefully – especially if their prices don’t increase – from now on. Robinson was going against a very poor Bucs pass defense and is one of the few receivers that has both safety (from the large volume of targets) and upside (because of his touchdown potential). Robinson will continue to be a great play most weeks and good news – the Jags get the Houston Texans, who rank in the bottom 10 in pass defense.

 

Tight Ends

Top plays: Gary Barnidge (30.9 DKFP), Antonio Gates (30.2 DKFP), Tyler Eifert (29.0 DKFP)

I’m guessing that the majority of casual NFL fans don’t know who the heck Gary Barnidge is – I mean, his name sounds like a guy who owns his own hardware store. However, like Devonta, I think it’s time that we re-evaluate our thoughts on Barnidge. He was very low owned this week and potentially will be for a few more weeks.

Antonio Gates was a very interesting play – the Gates-Rivers combo is was the one most prolific in NFL history and I think it was a very smart move to target him in his first game back. Normally, that might be a spot that we would avoid and see how he adjusts to the Chargers offense this year – one where Keenan Allen is definitely the go-to guy – but knowing the history of Gates and Rivers, I really liked the play of targeting him in Game 1 back and getting him at a reduced ownership. Obviously, that paid off if you had similar thoughts.

Eifert was a guy I loved going into the week and by Sunday, I talked myself out of him. The Seahawks have actually been pretty poor against TEs according to our Opponent +/- metric so I was really on him earlier in the week. However, as time went on and I re-evaluted and re-evaluated my lineups, I thought perhaps the data on Seahawks versus TEs might be a bit skewed because of Kam Chancellor being away from the middle of the field in the first several games. I guessed wrong. It happens.

Anyway, those are my weekly thoughts on the top plays and whether we should have been more on them or whether they were fluky. Hopefully you had a lot of these guys either way. Good luck in Week 6!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Week 5 has come and gone and I hope it brought you much success. Without rambling on too much, let’s get to the top plays for each position and my thoughts on them…

Quarterbacks

Top plays: Josh McCown (38.5 DKFP), Eli Manning (32.74 DKFP), Blake Bortles (32.2 DKFP)

On Wednesday’s podcast, I mentioned that McCown is an interesting play because 1) he had hit at least 20 fantasy points in the last two weeks and looked pretty decent doing it, and 2) he has a super low floor and not really much of a high ceiling. Bales and I talked about whether that player was useful at all – he doesn’t theoretically help in cash or GPPs and I believe we decided “probably not.”

So now this is an interesting debate about process versus results – does McCown’s great week leading all QBs in DraftKings fantasy points prove that he has a high ceiling (I guess, in a sense it does because he hit it, but we’re more concerned with weekly ceilings) or that this was a fluky game? The answer I’m prepared to give is I don’t know – I know that seems lame but I’ll explain more once we get down to the Devonta Freeman section because this is a common trend this year.

Manning was a popular play in GPPs and rightfully so – the Giants have actually been kind-of-sneaky-but-now-not-so-sneaky good and they were getting the 49ers at home in a primetime game. The game was actually much closer than expected – the Giants need a late Larry Donnell TD to seal it – but Manning has looked steady this season and the 49ers have been very average against QBs. He wasn’t as safe as Brady in cash, but he was probably one of the top 4-5 options at QB.

Bortles is the probably the most interesting guy to me – I’m still not sure how good he’ll be in real-football terms longterm, but there’s no denying he’s been getting progressively better each week. Check out his player card.

bortles 1

Again, to mention the podcast – and by the way, none of these statements are to toot my own horn by any means…I just bring them up in my writing because they’re subjects I struggle with – I questioned whether QB was so down this year that we should build our lineups in reverse. Bales thought it was an interesting idea since so many people start with a QB and find a correlated receiver. I wonder if going optimal at other positions and then filling in QB with remaining salary (like you’d do with a cheap RB, for example) is becoming more +EV. Just a thought.

 

Running Backs

Top plays: Doug Martin (39.8 DKFP), Devonta Freeman (35.7 DKFP), Justin Forsett (30.0 DKFP)

I’ll be honest – the Martin game came out of nowhere. The Bucs-Jaguars over/under was the second lowest of the day and the Bucs were only slightly favored. There was nothing about the Vegas line or game script that should have put you on Martin. “But Bryan, they were playing the Jags!” Well, I know it’s fun to make fun of the Jags, but they really aren’t as bad as the public thinks. In fact, coming into the game, they ranked fourth overall in the NFL in rush defense. I’m calling fluke.

Okay, it’s officially time for me to admit I was wrong on Devonta Freeman.

You all know the famous Einstein quote (although it’s now incredibly cliché and it may not have even been originally Einstein, but that’s beside the point): “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same result.” Alright, now let’s talk about that.

Most people assume that if you do the same experiment – let’s say the “experiment” here is fading Freeman – over and over again and expect the same result, you’re crazy. However, people forget that even changing a single variable changes the experiment. I still believe it was right to initially fade Devonta – he didn’t prove last year that he was capable of this play. And then because I thought it was a fluke, I wanted to see him play against another team (or variable). He did it again, as you know. However, a very important variable came along last week and it was one I thought would change the whole experiment: the excellent Redskins run defense.

After seeing Devonta perform against three different variables, or defenses, I feel like now I can make the conclusion that my initial hypothesis was incorrect on him. And I’m not ashamed of that – hypotheses are by definition often incorrect. Am I happy to come to a more firm conclusion even if it meant I was initially wrong? Of course. Am I really happy that Devonta is playing on Thursday this week? Of course.

I’ll quickly mention Forsett – he was a no-brainer play this weekend in both cash and GPP, and especially the latter. With Crockett Gillmore and Steve Smith, there was no doubt that the Ravens would heavily rely on their run game, which Forsett gets the majority of touches in. He was very reasonably priced on both sites as well because of some down games to start the year.

 

Wide Receivers

Top plays: Odell Beckham Jr (28.4 DKFP), Anquan Boldin (27.7), Allen Robinson (26.2 DKFP)

Wide receiving scoring was down this week and might be for a little while with Julio Jones battling an injury and Antonio Brown battling Michael Vick. When we got news that Julio could be limited, Odell was the easy pivot in both cash and GPP tournaments and he came through. He did have an injury scare during the game, but is reported to be minor.

Boldin was the surprise of this group as the 49er offense had looked pretty miserable outside of the first game against the Vikings. I actually had some exposure to Boldin, but honestly it was mostly because I was curious whether the 49ers would play the Giants close because it was a primetime game (like the Vikings one). However, it wasn’t a very smart play – Colin Kaepernick has been throwing at receiver’s feet for weeks now. We know it’s good to be contrarian but not stupid. This fit into the latter category probably, but it worked out.

The Jaguars passing offense has produced one of the top receivers for most weeks this year so far, so I think both Robinson and Hurns should be looked at carefully – especially if their prices don’t increase – from now on. Robinson was going against a very poor Bucs pass defense and is one of the few receivers that has both safety (from the large volume of targets) and upside (because of his touchdown potential). Robinson will continue to be a great play most weeks and good news – the Jags get the Houston Texans, who rank in the bottom 10 in pass defense.

 

Tight Ends

Top plays: Gary Barnidge (30.9 DKFP), Antonio Gates (30.2 DKFP), Tyler Eifert (29.0 DKFP)

I’m guessing that the majority of casual NFL fans don’t know who the heck Gary Barnidge is – I mean, his name sounds like a guy who owns his own hardware store. However, like Devonta, I think it’s time that we re-evaluate our thoughts on Barnidge. He was very low owned this week and potentially will be for a few more weeks.

Antonio Gates was a very interesting play – the Gates-Rivers combo is was the one most prolific in NFL history and I think it was a very smart move to target him in his first game back. Normally, that might be a spot that we would avoid and see how he adjusts to the Chargers offense this year – one where Keenan Allen is definitely the go-to guy – but knowing the history of Gates and Rivers, I really liked the play of targeting him in Game 1 back and getting him at a reduced ownership. Obviously, that paid off if you had similar thoughts.

Eifert was a guy I loved going into the week and by Sunday, I talked myself out of him. The Seahawks have actually been pretty poor against TEs according to our Opponent +/- metric so I was really on him earlier in the week. However, as time went on and I re-evaluted and re-evaluated my lineups, I thought perhaps the data on Seahawks versus TEs might be a bit skewed because of Kam Chancellor being away from the middle of the field in the first several games. I guessed wrong. It happens.

Anyway, those are my weekly thoughts on the top plays and whether we should have been more on them or whether they were fluky. Hopefully you had a lot of these guys either way. Good luck in Week 6!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.