NFL

Hindsight vs Fluke, Week 4: Where Did We Go Wrong?

It’s really obvious to say that DFS is a daily thing (or more weekly in football’s case), but just take the last two weeks as an example of how drastically different things can be week to week. Last Monday, the winning DraftKings Milly Maker lineup was sitting at over 300 points. This week? Not even 200 as we approach Monday’s Seahawks-Lions matchup.

In NFL DFS, we have to look at each week with an eye on both the specific week we’re playing and also the context of the larger season. It can be tough in a sport like football because sample sizes are so small. In the first three weeks, we all thought that the Cardinals were Super Bowl contenders and unbeatable. Then, they get beat by a Rams team that looked awful on offense last week. In NBA DFS, variance is minimized every night by the large sample size of possessions and throughout the year by having so many games. In football, we don’t have either.

However, each week can make things a little bit clearer. But part of that is constantly evaluating yourself as a DFS player. Making mistakes is okay; making the same ones over and over again because you never stopped to evaluate them – that will kill a bankroll. Anyway, let’s look at the top performers from Week 4 and where we went wrong/right in our selections.

Quarterbacks

Top plays: Philip Rivers (29.2 DKFP), Josh McCown (26.2 DKFP), Drew Brees (25.4 DKFP)

This was not a great week for QBs, as the three top cash options by industry consensus (Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, and Tyrod Taylor) all ended up with fewer than 20 fantasy points. Taylor obviously hurt you the least of those three because of his price, but in general it was a tough week for the position.

Also, quick anecdotal note – this has just been an awful year for QBs, not just a bad week. Hopefully things pick up, because as Drew Dinkmeyer put it, the NFL isn’t as entertaining without good QBs.

 

In hindsight, Rivers was a good play – they were going against the Browns at home, favored by 7.5, and were projected for the fourth-most points on the slate. A good number of people were on Keenan Allen (he was the eight-highest owned WR in FanDuel Thursday contests), but for some reason, Rivers flew under the radar this week. He was only 2.9% owned in those same Thursday contests and just 3.2% in the DraftKings Milly Maker. Rivers was coming off a down week – he had just 11 fantasy points against the Vikings in Week 3 – and it wasn’t like there weren’t other good cash options (mentioned above). However, in tournaments at his salary and matchup, Rivers probably should’ve been in more than 3% of contests.

Pretty much no one was on McCown this week – no users in the top 2,000 of the Milly Maker have him as their QB despite the good week at minimum price. He wasn’t in a particularly great matchup either – although it’s generally good to target QBs as dogs, the Chargers have been fairly stout against the pass in the first three weeks. Teddy Bridgewater in Week 3 only had 121 passing yards and they’ve forced a turnover in every game so far. This was a bit fluky, but he’s so low owned that it doesn’t really matter.

Brees ended up being a decent play here, but again, it’s important to note that no QB really exploded in Week 4 – Rivers is the top QB so far and he’s under 30 fantasy points. Last year, there were zero weeks with at least one QB under 30 fantasy points. This year, we’re already at 2/4. On FanDuel, he was rightfully low owned in Thursday contests because of his questionable status. On DraftKings, he was way under-owned (only 0.8% in the Milly Maker!). His status probably contributed to this as well, but with Andrew Luck and Tom Brady out this week, Brees should’ve been more of a target than that.

 

Running Backs

Top plays: Devonta Freeman (37.9 DKFP), Le’Veon Bell (31.0 DKFP), Doug Martin (28.3 DKFP)

Freeman is somewhat of a divisive DFS player – he was a great play in all formats both last week and this week due to his price and opportunity, but there are a lot of people who really question his talent, especially after a lackluster year last season and the fact that the Falcons spent a high draft pick on another running back in Tevin Coleman. However, I think the latter group might need to reevaluate things sooner-than-later, as 342 total yards (4.8 yards per carry average and five receptions per game) and six touchdowns is quite a statement.

Bell making this list is never a surprise and he was an especially good play this week – the Steelers playing on a short week with Michael Vick in his first game were always going to heavily rely on Bell. I’m generally a fan of fading Thursday players because of bloated ownership levels, but Bell was in too good a spot this week. He’ll be one of the chalkiest RBs over the next several weeks as long as Ben Roethlisberger is out.

Doug Martin was the surprise play of the group, as he went off for 106 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts, as well as five receptions for 37 yards. He’s only 0.2% owned in the Milly Maker and for good reason – targeting RBs as dogs is usually a no-no unless they have upside as a pass catcher. Martin had three receptions through the first three games. He also didn’t practice on Thursday and even though we knew he was playing, it was fair to question his health. In a game that the Bucs lost by two touchdowns, this Martin performance is definitely odd. I’m calling fluke.

 

Wide Receivers

Top Plays: Vincent Jackson (33.7 DKFP), Allen Hurns (31.6 DKFP), Tavon Austin (29.6 DKFP)

There are consistent receivers – think Antonio Brown or Julio Edelman – and there are boom-or-bust receivers – think the receivers listed above. This was just the week that several of those types boomed, but don’t feel bad about it if you didn’t have them in your cash games. You should not have – they aren’t cash game plays, regardless of whether it works out or not.

Jackson was a pretty good GPP play – which is kind of the case every week – because the Bucs were home dogs against the Panthers. There was a decent chance that the Panthers could get up early (from turnovers or whatever) and force Jameis Winston to throw the ball around to catch up. If that’s the case, Jackson is always in play. However, it is important to note that the Panthers-Bucs matchup had easily the lowest over/under of the weekend at 39.5. Jackson always has upside, but it’s lot like this was a particularly great matchup.

Allen Hurns is good for a week of boom and then we move on with our lives. This was 2015’s week, so congratulations if you had him. If you didn’t, at least you won’t have to worry about it will come and can just move on and deal with it next season.

Austin was an interesting play this week and I was actually on him a bit in tournaments, though I’m not sure what that says about me. I’ll take you through my reasoning – I thought a healthy week of Gurley might open up the passing game a bit, the sharp money was on the Rams to cover the large spread, and there were such few good value plays in the $3k-$5k range on DraftKings, that I thought I’d take a guy that has upside in Special Teams as well. It was a contrarian and I’m not sure if it’s fluky to be honest, but I believe my reasoning was fairly solid. Of course, it easily could’ve gone the other way and my reasoning would’ve looked silly. Football is fun.

 

Tight Ends

Top plays: Martellus Bennett (25.3 DKFP), Coby Fleener (23.3 DKFP), Charles Clay (23.1)

Let’s start with Bennett – I don’t think I really need to say much more than DraftKings Pro Al Smizzle did here. Pretty solid analysis.

 


Fleener had a game, but it was correct to be off him in cash games – even though Dwayne Allen was out for the Colts, so was Andrew Luck. Fleener was interesting with Luck, but much too risky and without the accompanying upside as well. The Colts were going against the Jaguars at home, so that’s potentially a reason to consider him, but with other plays like Charles Clay right at the same price, he was a stretch even as a contrarian GPP option.

Clay was a solid option in cash games and tournaments if you didn’t want to pay up for Bennett at $4,500. With Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy out for the Bills, Clay became a fairly chalky option in a pretty bad week of tight ends because of the Patriots being on bye. He was highly owned as a result – 19.6% in the Milly Maker – but didn’t disappoint, finishing with over 100 yards on 9 receptions. As long as Watkins and McCoy are out, Clay will be a nice option at under $4k for the next couple weeks.

Evaluating your plays and finding out whether they were fluky or you should’ve known better in hindsight is always both valuable and frustrating. If only! Hopefully as the season progresses, we’ll have less hindsight good plays that we miss and can find either continued or newfound success. Good luck in Week 5!

 

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It’s really obvious to say that DFS is a daily thing (or more weekly in football’s case), but just take the last two weeks as an example of how drastically different things can be week to week. Last Monday, the winning DraftKings Milly Maker lineup was sitting at over 300 points. This week? Not even 200 as we approach Monday’s Seahawks-Lions matchup.

In NFL DFS, we have to look at each week with an eye on both the specific week we’re playing and also the context of the larger season. It can be tough in a sport like football because sample sizes are so small. In the first three weeks, we all thought that the Cardinals were Super Bowl contenders and unbeatable. Then, they get beat by a Rams team that looked awful on offense last week. In NBA DFS, variance is minimized every night by the large sample size of possessions and throughout the year by having so many games. In football, we don’t have either.

However, each week can make things a little bit clearer. But part of that is constantly evaluating yourself as a DFS player. Making mistakes is okay; making the same ones over and over again because you never stopped to evaluate them – that will kill a bankroll. Anyway, let’s look at the top performers from Week 4 and where we went wrong/right in our selections.

Quarterbacks

Top plays: Philip Rivers (29.2 DKFP), Josh McCown (26.2 DKFP), Drew Brees (25.4 DKFP)

This was not a great week for QBs, as the three top cash options by industry consensus (Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, and Tyrod Taylor) all ended up with fewer than 20 fantasy points. Taylor obviously hurt you the least of those three because of his price, but in general it was a tough week for the position.

Also, quick anecdotal note – this has just been an awful year for QBs, not just a bad week. Hopefully things pick up, because as Drew Dinkmeyer put it, the NFL isn’t as entertaining without good QBs.

 

In hindsight, Rivers was a good play – they were going against the Browns at home, favored by 7.5, and were projected for the fourth-most points on the slate. A good number of people were on Keenan Allen (he was the eight-highest owned WR in FanDuel Thursday contests), but for some reason, Rivers flew under the radar this week. He was only 2.9% owned in those same Thursday contests and just 3.2% in the DraftKings Milly Maker. Rivers was coming off a down week – he had just 11 fantasy points against the Vikings in Week 3 – and it wasn’t like there weren’t other good cash options (mentioned above). However, in tournaments at his salary and matchup, Rivers probably should’ve been in more than 3% of contests.

Pretty much no one was on McCown this week – no users in the top 2,000 of the Milly Maker have him as their QB despite the good week at minimum price. He wasn’t in a particularly great matchup either – although it’s generally good to target QBs as dogs, the Chargers have been fairly stout against the pass in the first three weeks. Teddy Bridgewater in Week 3 only had 121 passing yards and they’ve forced a turnover in every game so far. This was a bit fluky, but he’s so low owned that it doesn’t really matter.

Brees ended up being a decent play here, but again, it’s important to note that no QB really exploded in Week 4 – Rivers is the top QB so far and he’s under 30 fantasy points. Last year, there were zero weeks with at least one QB under 30 fantasy points. This year, we’re already at 2/4. On FanDuel, he was rightfully low owned in Thursday contests because of his questionable status. On DraftKings, he was way under-owned (only 0.8% in the Milly Maker!). His status probably contributed to this as well, but with Andrew Luck and Tom Brady out this week, Brees should’ve been more of a target than that.

 

Running Backs

Top plays: Devonta Freeman (37.9 DKFP), Le’Veon Bell (31.0 DKFP), Doug Martin (28.3 DKFP)

Freeman is somewhat of a divisive DFS player – he was a great play in all formats both last week and this week due to his price and opportunity, but there are a lot of people who really question his talent, especially after a lackluster year last season and the fact that the Falcons spent a high draft pick on another running back in Tevin Coleman. However, I think the latter group might need to reevaluate things sooner-than-later, as 342 total yards (4.8 yards per carry average and five receptions per game) and six touchdowns is quite a statement.

Bell making this list is never a surprise and he was an especially good play this week – the Steelers playing on a short week with Michael Vick in his first game were always going to heavily rely on Bell. I’m generally a fan of fading Thursday players because of bloated ownership levels, but Bell was in too good a spot this week. He’ll be one of the chalkiest RBs over the next several weeks as long as Ben Roethlisberger is out.

Doug Martin was the surprise play of the group, as he went off for 106 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts, as well as five receptions for 37 yards. He’s only 0.2% owned in the Milly Maker and for good reason – targeting RBs as dogs is usually a no-no unless they have upside as a pass catcher. Martin had three receptions through the first three games. He also didn’t practice on Thursday and even though we knew he was playing, it was fair to question his health. In a game that the Bucs lost by two touchdowns, this Martin performance is definitely odd. I’m calling fluke.

 

Wide Receivers

Top Plays: Vincent Jackson (33.7 DKFP), Allen Hurns (31.6 DKFP), Tavon Austin (29.6 DKFP)

There are consistent receivers – think Antonio Brown or Julio Edelman – and there are boom-or-bust receivers – think the receivers listed above. This was just the week that several of those types boomed, but don’t feel bad about it if you didn’t have them in your cash games. You should not have – they aren’t cash game plays, regardless of whether it works out or not.

Jackson was a pretty good GPP play – which is kind of the case every week – because the Bucs were home dogs against the Panthers. There was a decent chance that the Panthers could get up early (from turnovers or whatever) and force Jameis Winston to throw the ball around to catch up. If that’s the case, Jackson is always in play. However, it is important to note that the Panthers-Bucs matchup had easily the lowest over/under of the weekend at 39.5. Jackson always has upside, but it’s lot like this was a particularly great matchup.

Allen Hurns is good for a week of boom and then we move on with our lives. This was 2015’s week, so congratulations if you had him. If you didn’t, at least you won’t have to worry about it will come and can just move on and deal with it next season.

Austin was an interesting play this week and I was actually on him a bit in tournaments, though I’m not sure what that says about me. I’ll take you through my reasoning – I thought a healthy week of Gurley might open up the passing game a bit, the sharp money was on the Rams to cover the large spread, and there were such few good value plays in the $3k-$5k range on DraftKings, that I thought I’d take a guy that has upside in Special Teams as well. It was a contrarian and I’m not sure if it’s fluky to be honest, but I believe my reasoning was fairly solid. Of course, it easily could’ve gone the other way and my reasoning would’ve looked silly. Football is fun.

 

Tight Ends

Top plays: Martellus Bennett (25.3 DKFP), Coby Fleener (23.3 DKFP), Charles Clay (23.1)

Let’s start with Bennett – I don’t think I really need to say much more than DraftKings Pro Al Smizzle did here. Pretty solid analysis.

 


Fleener had a game, but it was correct to be off him in cash games – even though Dwayne Allen was out for the Colts, so was Andrew Luck. Fleener was interesting with Luck, but much too risky and without the accompanying upside as well. The Colts were going against the Jaguars at home, so that’s potentially a reason to consider him, but with other plays like Charles Clay right at the same price, he was a stretch even as a contrarian GPP option.

Clay was a solid option in cash games and tournaments if you didn’t want to pay up for Bennett at $4,500. With Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy out for the Bills, Clay became a fairly chalky option in a pretty bad week of tight ends because of the Patriots being on bye. He was highly owned as a result – 19.6% in the Milly Maker – but didn’t disappoint, finishing with over 100 yards on 9 receptions. As long as Watkins and McCoy are out, Clay will be a nice option at under $4k for the next couple weeks.

Evaluating your plays and finding out whether they were fluky or you should’ve known better in hindsight is always both valuable and frustrating. If only! Hopefully as the season progresses, we’ll have less hindsight good plays that we miss and can find either continued or newfound success. Good luck in Week 5!

 

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