There is so much to be learned by looking into the past. I can identify mistakes I have made in my lineup construction – maybe where I overlooked some guys when I shouldn’t have, or maybe where I was bullish on some guys for what was probably not a good reason. Also, I think I can learn a lot about winning strategy by studying the lineups of recent winners and when tasked with figuring out what the public is going to do, I can learn a lot by studying what the public has done.
[Editor’s note: This article was written prior to Week 16. I’m leaving it as is instead of changing to past tense mostly because I think it’s still really valuable this way.]
I am not afraid to admit that I am having some trouble figuring out what to do with the Pittsburgh Steelers offense this week. They are in a dream matchup against the Ravens poor pass defense. Of course, the first thing I am trying to do is figure out where I can potentially gain an advantage on the field while still taking advantage of what seems to be a great spot for the Steelers. And since the DraftKings Main Event is this week, this is obviously a huge question.
Here is the dilemma I think we are all faced with – Antonio Brown and the Steelers pass game or pivoting to DeAngelo Williams. There is a lot to be gained by taking DeAngelo Williams if he scores the touchdowns and Antonio Brown has a bad game. I think it is safe to assume that Antonio will be a very popular pick this week. The problem is that I really do not think Antonio will have a bad game, and therefore do not feel great about fading him. This conundrum I am faced with I think is in part to my narrow-mindedness when looking at ownership. I’m so often hyper-focused on projecting an individual’s ownership percentage, when I think it could be more valuable to look at the larger picture.
Looking at last week’s DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship a few things jump out as far as ownership.
Jeremy Maclin: 50.5% Owned
Adrian Peterson: 55% Owned
Julio Jones: 52% Owned
Denard Robinson: 46% Owned
Charcandrick West: 26% Owned
Those were some of the highest-owned players in that tournament. One thing that immediately jumped out to me is that the Chiefs, who I do not consider to have a high-powered offense, had two players over 25% owned. You do not gain a significant advantage over the field rostering either of those players individually, but if you were to roster both of them together, it is a different story. West and Maclin were only rostered on 3% of lineups together, or only 6 of the 200 lineups.
I put something together to best “paint a picture” of that difference.
Jeremy Maclin: 50.5% / Charcandrick West: 26% / Jeremy Maclin and Charcandrick West: 3%
Denard Robinson: 46% / Julius Thomas: 12.5% / Julius Thomas and Denard Robinson: 5%
Julio Jones: 52% / Devonta Freeman: 13.0 % / Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman: 2%
Adrian Peterson: 55% / Stefon Diggs: 1% / Adrian Peterson and Stefon Diggs: 0%
The DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship advanced the top 10 lineups to the finals. Of those top 10, four of them had a pass catcher and running back from the same team. Those stacks were…
User “Box_97” with Denard Robinson and Julius Thomas
User “Cory315” with DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown
User “Danny1234” with Denard Robinson and Allen Robinson
User “Stuckcee” with Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones
Taking another look at my previous issue with the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, I think it is worth taking a look at potentially rostering both a RB and WR from that game. We have seen this strategy work in some large-field tournaments this year, but I think most have viewed those wins as exceptions to the negative correlation rule. I think absorbing some of that minor negative correlation to further differentiate myself from the field, while still gaining exposure to a high powered offense, might be the best move this week. It feels uncomfortable to roster a RB and WR from the same team.
My theory that a lot of people make decisions on comfort rather than facts or data leads me to believe that if I am feeling a bit uncomfortable building that lineup, then I am probably building a lineup that will be a bit different from the rest.
