The 2024 PGA TOUR season is officially over, but some of the top golfers in the world will still be in action this week at the 2024 Hero World Challenge. Tiger Woods isn’t teeing it up, but he is hosting at Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas.
For more info on who is in the field and a look at the details of the event, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Pick
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Scottie Scheffler $11,900
Scheffler is the defending champ at the Hero World Challenge, as he will be in no less than seven tournaments in 2025. He has had one of the most dominant years in the history of the sport, and he’ll look to put a bow on it with another win in the Bahamas. Not only did he win seven PGA TOUR events, he tacked on a win at the Olympics and also was on the winning team at the President’s Cup.
We haven’t seen Scheffler play a competitive round since the President’s Cup, but he’s always a threat to take home the trophy in any event he plays. Over the last six months, Scheffler leads this field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
He’s by far the most expensive player on the slate at almost $12,000, but he also comes with the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection by wide margins. He has the highest Perfect% by a wide margin and the shortest odds to win and finish in the top 10, according to Vegas. Remember, though, there are only 20 players in the field, so a top 10 is just finishing in the top half of the field.
Scheffler does have the highest ownership projection for this week at a massive ownership projection of almost 65%. You’ll have to find your leverage in other spots, but in this field and in his current form, it’s impossible to not at least consider building around the top golfer in the world. If you do fade him and he wins, there will be almost no way to cash since his ownership is likely going to be so high.
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Value PGA DFS Pick
Robert Macintyre $7,100
While he will be making his debut at this event, Bobby Mac does have one thing going for him–current form. As in, his form is much more current than anyone else’s. The lefty has been putting in work on the DP World Tour this fall, and he hasn’t just been playing–he’s been playing extremely well.
In his five Fall events, he made the cut five times and finished in the top 25 in every event, bookended by a T5 at the Amgen Irish Open and a T7 at the DP World Tour Championship in his last start just a couple of weeks ago.
While his 2024 doesn’t come close to matching Scheffler, he did win two events, claiming the Geneiss Scottish Open and the RBC Canadian Open.
He has the highest SimLeverage in the field with a 30.5% Perfect% which is the third-highest of all golfers under $8,000. He has an ownership projection under 25%, which is in the lower half of this very limited field.
He should bring excellent value at this price and has shown he can excel on Bermuda greens. Another factor in his favor is that the course has been very attackable by lefties. Bubba Watson won on this course, and it should fit the preferred shot-shaping of Bobby Mac this week.
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Sleeper PGA DFS Pick
Akshay Bhatia $6,700
Bhatia has the third-highest SimLeverage in the field and is another lefty that I think can thrive this week at a very reasonable salary. Bhatia’s ownership projection is under 20%, but his salary under $7,000 can help balance out superstar salaries like Scheffler’s.
Like Bobby Mac, Bhatia is making his Hero World Challenge debut, and also like MacIntyre, Bhatia has played recently. He is coming off a T2 at the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament in Japan just a few weeks ago.
This year, the 22-year-old picked up his second PGA TOUR career win and posted 12 top 25s in his 26 events, including three top-10s. He showed he can go very low in favorable scoring conditions and has a great history of playing well in tropical environments on resort courses. He has top 10s at the World Wide Technology Championship, Puerto Rico Open, and Mexico Open and posted a pair of top 15s in the two events on the Aloha Swing to start 2024.
Bhatia also has a great history in the Bahamas, dating back to his time on the Korn Ferry Tour. As a teenager in 2022, he won the Great Exuma Classic and finished in the top five as defending champ in 2023. It’s a different course this week, but Bhatia thrives in tropical vibes, and he should be able to outproduce his salary and ownership projection this week.
