After finishing up the official PGA TOUR season at the RSM Classic and feasting for Thanksgiving last week, several PGA TOUR pros are headed to the Bahamas this week for an unofficial but well-attended tournament called the Hero World Challenge. This event is unique on the PGA TOUR not only due to its “unofficial” status but also because it features a field of just 20 golfers. With such a limited field, no cut is needed so all 20 golfers will play four rounds, barring withdrawal or injury.
The unique structure of the event makes it different from other fantasy golf tournaments, but it’s still a great chance to get a look at some of the biggest names in golf, many of whom have not teed it up since the Ryder Cup.
It’s also a big week of returns for several golfers who are returning from injury layoffs. The biggest name of them all is Tiger Woods, who will be playing for the first time since he was forced to withdraw from The Masters. Will Zalatoris is also teeing it up for the first time since back surgery in April, and Collin Morikawa is returning from his back issue which forced him to withdraw from The Netflix Cup, a live exhibition held a few weeks ago.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland are also headlining the star-studded field. Hovland won this event in each of the last two years and will go for the three-peat.
The Albany Golf Course will host this event for the eighth time. The par 72 is a little unusual in that it has five par 5s and five par 3s, but most of these pros will be used to the track. From past tournaments, players who have had success on links-style courses with smaller greens tend to play well. Wind is always a factor as well, with scores varying quite a bit from year to year based on the conditions.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players who may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors. With just 20 players in the field, the leverage is definitely all relative since ownership will be high across the board.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. Since this week is a major, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $200K Pitch + Putt, which awards $50K to first place.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Pick
Viktor Hovland $10,800
Hovland obviously knows his way around the course as a two-time defending champion. After the event was canceled in 2020, Hovland beat Scottie Scheffler by one stroke in 2021 and by two strokes in 2022. The two come into this event once again as the two betting favorites, with Hovland getting a very slight advantage over Scheffler in the odds and DraftKings salary.
Hovland has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections and is in the most optimal lineups in our sims. The limited field gives him an extremely high 48.56% Perfect%. He also has 20% odds to win this week and an 85.8% chance to finish in the top 10, according to Vegas.
While his course history at Albany Golf Club is impressive, the real reason I’m here to pick Vik this week is that he has been so red-hot since this past summer. He finished in the top 15 at the Open Championship and the FedEx St. Jude Championship before wrapping up the FedExCup playoffs with back-to-back victories at the BMW Championship and the TOUR Championship to claim the FedExCup.
Since then, he also contributed to a dominant win for Team Europe at the Ryder Cup and played two DP World Tour events. He finished fifth at Wentworth in the DP World Tour’s version of the BMW PGA Championship and tied for second at the DP World Tour Championship in his most recent event just a couple of weeks ago.
While we don’t have much idea about the form for many of the top golfers who haven’t played much lately, Hovland has been in excellent form and knows how to win here. With such a limited field, it’s acceptable to eat some chalk and go with the favorite since he has so much win equity. Just make sure to find other ways to make your lineup a little unique in your other roster spots.
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Value PGA DFS Pick
Rickie Fowler $8,000
The return of Rickie has been one of the best golf stories of this past season. The fan-favorite turned his game back around and looked like one of the best golfers on the course for multiple tournaments in the first half of the year. He had a few gut-wrenching close calls but broke through and returned to the winner’s circle with a victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Since then, Rickie has cooled off a little bit, although he did make it all the way to the TOUR Championship and the FedExCup finale. He also posted a top-25 at the Open Championship, played on a similar style course to this one.
Rickie has a stellar career record at Albany Golf Course. He won this event in 2017 and finished in the top 10 in each of his five appearances, including three top-three finishes before his game started to unravel on him.
Fowler has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the options under $10K, and he seems like a huge bargain all the way down at $8K. His form is the big unknown, but since that’s true of almost everyone for this event, I’ll take his past success at this track and hope he can finish his 2023 Renaissance with a big win to build on next year.
Sleeper PGA DFS Pick
Wyndham Clark $7,300
With my first two picks, I went with players who have proven they like this track, but with this sleeper pick, I’m going in a different direction and taking one of the three players making their tournament debut at Albany this year.
In theory, Clark’s game should be a great fit for this course, and all the metrics indicate he should be able to go low in the Bahamas. He has a strong course history on similar layouts and has proven he can contend with the best in the world by winning the Wells Fargo Championship and the U.S. Open.
Since claiming his first major championship, Clark made a strong run through the playoffs and finished third at the TOUR Championship. He lost at the Ryder Cup (although his personal record was 1-1-1) and posted a T56 at the Estrella Damm N.A. Andalucía Masters on the DP World Tour in mid-October.
Clark has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the players under $8K and the second-highest behind only Fowler of all the players under $9K. He and Will Zalatoris are the only players at $8K or under that match at least six Pro Trends, and since his numbers are much more recent than Zalatoris’s, he’s a much stronger option.
First-timers at Albany have fared pretty well, historically, and I think Clark will post a high finish in his debut at the tournament this week.
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