The key to success in daily fantasy sports is research. With our Trends tool, research is easy.
Preview
(Written the Friday before kickoff)
This week, I’m hoping to identify DFS plays at the skill positions by looking for teams expected to have success on Sunday and then cherry-picking the players most likely to be buoyed by the resulting game script. In all cases, I will be looking at players on teams with a moneyline of at least -150 in this week’s matchup, but the other criteria will change from position to position.
Running Back
I am always hearing people suggest RBs on teams favored to win. Because that is such an obvious thing to do, I’m a little surprised by the average ownership within this trend. Success Rate is defined as the “Percentage of runs allowed that have increased the offense’s win probability.” You would expect players who most frequently have positive runs to do well in games in which the team is expected to be ahead, and that is the case. When the Success Rate filter is removed, over half a fantasy point per game is lost.
I elected to look at Success Rate over the prior month instead of a longer duration because of the fluid hierarchy that can exist at the RB position.
Wide Receiver
At WR, Success Rate isn’t an option. Also, targets may not be the best choice because a receiver may see more targets when a team plays poorly overall. Instead, I’ll look at receivers who’ve gotten the most red-zone looks over the past month. Both Plus/Minus and ownership for these WRs are roughly double what they are for the trend RBs.
Tight End
Finally, at TE, I’m basically copying what I did at WR, just tweaking the RZ criteria in order to return a decent sample.
Matches
Let’s dig into this week’s matches at each position.
Running Back
If we use DeAngelo Williams as a proxy for Le’Veon Bell here, there’s basically a 50/50 split between chalk and off-the-radar guys. Both Bell and Melvin Gordon are projected to be owned on well over 10 percent of the field this weekend by Adam Levitan in our Player Models. Both are playing on sizable favorites and project for heavy workloads.
You could probably say the same thing for Matt Jones here: Washington is a touchdown favorite over Cleveland at the time of this writing and Jones is fresh off a 17-carry performance last week, as Washington got its first win of the season. Based on that, Jones is an ideal match within this trend and he should be available at minimal ownership this weekend.
As for James White, I don’t even know who will be playing for the Patriots at this point, so he is a total wildcard.
Wide Receiver
The Cardinals are huge favorites over the Rams at home this weekend and Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are both candidates to see RZ targets. Fitzgerald has seen seven RZ targets on the year to Floyd’s five but is also projected to be much more highly owned. If I liked the Cardinals this weekend — which in truth, I don’t really — I might look at Floyd as an attractive pivot play.
Emmanuel Sanders and Jamison Crowder both belong to the ‘Little Guys Who Dominate RZ Targets for their Teams’ club. Neither player came anywhere near leading his team in that same category last year, so there may be some regression looming.
Tight End
Jordan Reed’s first three games have been somewhat disappointing, considering the lofty expectations many had set for him. Still, with 25 targets through three games and consistent RZ work, he seems like a prime bounceback candidate in this game.
Results
(Written Sunday night)
Running Back
Jones was among the day’s best tournament plays, considering his +11.84 Plus/Minus and three percent ownership. This was a prime example of opportunity and matchup converging, but the RB position was full of value in Week 4 and few DFS players were willing to take a chance on a player with Jones’ recent track record.
The best thing you can say about White is that he scored a +2.74 Plus/Minus on a day the Patriots offense was stuck in mud.
The chalk came through at RB: Gordon made it into the end zone twice despite a middling yards per carry that is surely frustrating those who continue to fade Gordon.
Wide Receiver
Floyd made it into the end zone to post a positive return while Fitzgerald fell short. Both the Cardinals’ game script and John Brown’s big game were unexpected curveballs that limited these two receivers.
The Broncos-Bucs game is suspended at the time of this writing, but Sanders is already close to doubling his implied point total. Sanders keeps getting RZ looks and has at least eight targets in each game, but questions at the quarterback position in Denver have kept his ownership levels reasonable.
Tight End
It was hard to go wrong at tight end on Sunday, but Reed led the class with two TDs. With Reed now cleared for takeoff, this could be the cheapest and lowest-owned he is for quite some time.
Review
Most players who matched for the trend this week returned positive value on Sunday. There was a mix of chalk options and players who had good matchups but had started the year slowly (and as a result were lower-owned). If you’re looking for under-the-radar tournament plays using this trend, those are the types of players to target.
