Giants vs. Browns DFS Breakdown: Baker Mayfield Due for Regression on Sunday Night Football

NFL Week 15 features a Sunday Night Football contest between the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.

If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Nick Chubb at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,800 as opposed to $11,200.

FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.

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Studs

This game is an important one for the NFL playoff picture. The Giants are still very much alive in the NFC East. They trail the Washington Football Team by one game in the standings, but they do own the tiebreaker thanks to two head-to-head wins.

The Browns are in good shape to win one of the AFC Wild Card spots at 9-4, but they can’t stumble over the final three weeks. They own the same record as the Titans and Colts and are just one game up on the Dolphins and Ravens, and only four of those five teams can make the playoffs.

That said, this game doesn’t figure to be great from a fantasy perspective. Only two players are priced above $9,800 on DraftKings, so the stud options, in particular, are lacking. The total also sits at just 44.5 points, so the scoring chances could be limited, as well.

Chubb is the most expensive player in this contest, and he probably doesn’t get enough respect as one of the best running backs in the league. The guy has been nothing but dominant since arriving in Cleveland, averaging 5.2 yards per carry as a rookie, 5.0 yards per carry as a sophomore and 5.9 yards per carry this season. He’s also scored nine touchdowns in just nine games this season, including two last week vs. the Ravens. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games.

He takes the field this week in a solid spot. The Giants have improved on the defensive end since the start of the season, but they’re still middle of the pack in terms of Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. More importantly, the Browns are currently favored by 6.5 points, and Chubb has historically crushed in comparable situations. He’s played in 10 career games as a favorite of at least 4 points, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.97 on DraftKings in those contests (per the Trends tool).

The Browns’ passing game is also an option. Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry have both been playing some of their best football recently.

Mayfield has gone off in back-to-back games, scoring 33.46 DraftKings points vs. the Titans two weeks ago and 34.02 DraftKings points vs. the Ravens last week. He wasn’t quite as efficient last week – his adjusted yards per attempt dropped from 12.55 vs. the Titans to 7.19 vs. the Ravens – but he made up for it with elite volume. He had 47 pass attempts in that contest, which easily topped his previous season-high of 39 (also vs. the Ravens).

The Giants’ defense has been stingy against opposing QBs this season, giving Mayfield an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.7 on DraftKings, but they will not be at full strength tonight. James Bradberry has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, which is an absolutely massive blow for their defense. He’s graded out as one of the top cover corners in the league this season, so Mayfield’s matchup is a lot easier than it looks on paper.

The bigger concern is the potential game script. The Browns have been a run-heavy team all season – they own the fourth-lowest pass rate in one-score games – so Mayfield’s volume could be way down if the Browns grab an early lead. His price is as high as it’s been all season, so he’s an interesting fade candidate across the industry.

Landry has easily been Mayfield’s favorite target recently. He’s seen at least nine targets in each of his past three games, and he’s scored at least 20.44 DraftKings points in two of them. The exception was last week vs. the Ravens, who possess some of the best cornerbacks in the league. The Giants do not have nearly the same depth at that position with Bradberry out of the lineup, so Landry should have the advantage against whoever lines up across from him.

Midrange

The Giants’ offense has been led by Wayne Gallman recently. He’s coming off a down performance last week vs. the Cardinals, finishing with 57 yards on just 12 attempts, but he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his six previous games on DraftKings. Cleveland has struggled on the defensive side of the ball this season, ranking just 23rd in defensive DVOA, so this is nice opportunity to buy low on him.

Gallman should also see more opportunities than usual given the Giants’ QB situation. Daniel Jones is not expected to play, which means Colt McCoy will likely make his second start of the season. The Giants managed to win with McCoy under center vs. the Seahawks, but McCoy was a major liability in that contest. He finished with just 105 yards, one touchdown and one interception, resulting in 9.4 DraftKings points.

Still, it’s hard to completely write McCoy off on tonight’s slate. He’s incredibly cheap for a quarterback in the single-game format – his $8,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99% — and the Browns have been a dream matchup for QBs this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.1, which is the top mark on the slate by a considerable margin. McCoy also owns the second-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models.

McCoy does make it tough to trust the Giants’ pass catchers, but Sterling Shepard should be able to maintain his value. He saw six targets in McCoy’s first start, which was the second-highest mark on the team. He only caught one pass in that contest, but the opportunities should lead to a better performance tonight.

On the other hand, Darius Slayton is someone who figures to suffer with McCoy. He does the majority of his damage down the field, and McCoy is someone who typically keeps the ball around the line of scrimmage. Their skill sets do not overlap, so it makes sense that he saw just one target in McCoy’s first start.

Evan Engram might be the best pure value among the Giants’ pass-catchers if he’s able to suit up. He’s currently listed as questionable, but NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport is reporting that he’s expected to play. He led the team with eight targets in McCoy’s first start, and the Browns have also been vulnerable against the tight end position this season.

On the Browns’ side, Rashard Higgins has emerged as a valuable fantasy resource recently. He’s logged at least nine targets in back-to-back games, and he’s scored a touchdown in each of those contests.

Higgins figured to be one of the primary beneficiaries after Odell Beckham Jr. went down with an injury, but his production was kept in check by a string of poor-weather games. Now that the Browns have managed to throw the ball successfully over the past couple of weeks, Higgins has emerged as a reliable fantasy option. He’s priced up a bit this week, but he should be able to find success in this matchup.

Kareem Hunt is one of the more interesting options on today’s slate. He saw just six carries last week vs. the Ravens, but he managed to preserve his fantasy value with his work in the passing game. He finished with six catches for 77 yards and a touchdown vs. the Ravens, resulting in 29.0 DraftKings points.

That means Hunt is valuable in any potential game script. If the Browns grab a big lead vs. the Giants, he should see more work as a rusher. If they fall behind, he should see another big workload through the air. I like the idea of pairing him and Chubb together, since both players have a correlation of +0.37 on DraftKings.

The only other option in this price range is the Browns Defense, and they’re a tough sell at $5,600. The Giants don’t figure to pass the ball much with McCoy under center, which limits their upside in terms of sacks and turnovers.

Quick Hits

• Donovan Peoples-Jones: $4,600 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel – Peoples-Jones has emerged as the Browns’ clear No. 3 wide receiver, and he’s posted at least 12.4 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That said, if Mayfield’s numbers regress in this contest, the same will likely hold true for DPJ.
• Austin Hooper: $4,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – Hooper is going to be a key injury to monitor heading into this contest. He’s currently listed as questionable, but head coach Kevin Stefanski did say he expects him to play. Hooper hasn’t done much recently, but his presence diminishes the appeal of the other tight ends on the roster.
• Kickers and Giants D – These options are always in play in the single-game format, especially on slates that are expected to be low-scoring.
• David Njoku and Harrison Bryant – I’m grouping these options together because they would become interesting if Hooper is out. Njoku had the better fantasy performance last week, but Bryant saw more targets and played on more snaps.
• Golden Tate: $2,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – Tate has the potential to be one of the best values on the slate at his current price tag. He saw four targets with McCoy vs. the Seahawks, and he leads all players in projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models.