For the tournament in the week before the Open Championship, the PGA TOUR is partnering with the DP World Tour to co-sanction the Genesis Scottish Open for the second straight year. This year the field is about a 50-50 split of PGA TOUR pros and DP World Tour pros, who will be teeing it up at the Renaissance Club, which has hosted the tournament since 2019.
Over the past several years, more PGA TOUR pros have been using this event as a prep week for The Open Championship. This year continues that trend providing an exceptional field headlined by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Xander Schauffele will be back to defend his title from last year, and he’ll be joined by big-name stars Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth. Several recent winners will also be teeing it up, including U.S. Open Champion Wyndham Clark and Rickie Fowler, who won the Scottish Open back in 2015 on a different course and just broke through again at the Rocket Mortgage.
In addition to the PGA TOUR pros, there are about 75 DP World Tour players teeing it up, and since some of them are more unknown, there is a chance to get some good leverage picks off the radar. Rasmus Hojgaard won last week on the DP World Tour in Denmark, with Daniel Hiller and Thirston Lawrence also claiming victories over the past month. Adrian Meronk and Victor Perez are in the top five in the Race to Dubai Rankings and will look to continue their DP World Tour success at this joint event
The Links style of golf we’ll get to see over the next few weeks is always enjoyable to watch and should be a tough test for the pros this year at the Renaissance Club. To check out the stats that have typically led to success on this course and in this tournament, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players that may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have large numbers of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. This week the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $1M Summer Sand Trap, which awards $200K to first place.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Xander Schauffele $10,400
There are 12 golfers priced at $9K or more for this event, and there are two that sit atop most metrics–Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. The two are the only two in the field with projected ownership over 20% and the only two in the field with over 25% Perfect%. They also sit 1-2 in SimLeverage since both are actually under-owned according to our sims. Remember, though, both missed the cut at this event last year, so that’s definitely within the realm of potential outcomes as well.
To get lower ownership and still keep all the upside, I’m targeting Schauffele in my top-priced spot for GPPs. He’s projected for under 15% ownership, which puts him just on the edge of the top 10 in the field. He’s in the fourth-most optimal lineups in our sims and brings the third-highest SimLeverage in the field behind just Rory and Scheffler.
Schauffele has finished in the top 10 in both of his appearances on this track and won last year in challenging windy conditions after going low to finish T10 in 2021. Links golf suites Schauffele, who has proven he can contend on any kind of course anywhere in the world.
While he hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since last year’s triumph at this event, he hasn’t exactly been struggling either. He has 14 top 25s and nine top 10s in his 17 starts this season and has yet to miss a single cut. He has outproduced salary-based expectations in six of his past eight tournaments and continues to look on the verge of breaking through any given week.
His history of links play success and low projected ownership set him up as a great way to avoid too much chalk at the top of your lineup while still keeping both a high ceiling and a high floor.
Matthew Fitzpatrick $9,800
Another player with a history of success at this track, strong form, and a surprisingly low ownership projection is Fitzpatrick, who is actually projected for ownership under 10%. Only he and Shane Lowry are projected with single-digit ownership from the group of players over $9K.
Fitzpatrick has had no trouble at the Renaissance Club so far in his career, making the cut in all four trips to the event. He lost in a playoff in 2021 and finished sixth last season for his third career top-15 on this track.
Since getting past a neck injury early this year, Fitzpatrick has been playing well once again, finishing in the top 10 at the Masters before winning the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town. Since then, he has made the cut in five of his six events, with top 20 finishes at the Memorial, the Canadian Open, and the U.S. Open in three of his past four events.
Like with Schauffele, Fitzpatrick’s history and expected ownership make him a great place to start building your GPP lineups.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Min Woo Lee $8,900
There are 11 players available from $8K to $9K this week, but there isn’t nearly as much SimLeverage in this range compared to the higher salaries on the board. There are some places to find good GPP value, though, and my favorite play from this range is another former champion–Min Woo Lee.
Lee defeated Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry on the first hole of a playoff two years ago on this track, and last year, he missed the cut in his title defense. Since then, though, Lee has made an impressive splash on the PGA TOUR, earning Special Temporary Membership. He burst onto the Stateside scene with a top-six finish at THE PLAYERS but then struggled to make another cut for a while.
He has re-discovered his groove lately with top 20s at the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and the Travelers Championship. Two weeks ago, Lee teed it up at the British Masters on the DP World Tour, where he finished T15.
His game fits the course and the style of play, so he should be able to keep churning out strong results this week. His 12% projected ownership is slightly higher than Fitz’s but still ranks him outside the top 15 projected ownerships for this week.
Justin Thomas $8,300
Maybe a trip across the pond is exactly what JT needs to get him back on track. The former World No. 1 has sunk all the way down to No. 20 in the rankings and has seemed just off for most of the year. The 15-time PGA TOUR winner has missed the cut in three of his past four events, but he did sneak a promising T9 in the middle of that stretch at the Travelers Championship. He also bounced back with a decent Round 2 in Detroit but couldn’t recover from an opening 76 on Thursday.
Thomas has too much top talent to be stuck in neutral for much longer and has the upside to contend when his game is in top form. He had success on this track with a pair of top 10s in his first two career trips to this event before missing the cut last year.
Given his recent struggles, JT is far from a safe pick, but it does feel like he’ll have a “throw the switch” week and be back atop the leaderboard soon. For GPP play, you want to be ahead of that breakthrough, so you get him at low ownership. He has the third-highest SimLeverage of the players in this price bracket since he’s projected for under 9% ownership.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Rasmus Hojgaard $7,700
There are 134 players priced under $8K, and there are so many great options in this salary range, including proven internationals who come in with attractively low projected ownership. While Ludwig Aberg has gotten plenty of deserved attention for his impressive play, he’s a little expensive and chalky (16.3% projected ownership) for this tournament. Instead, consider pivoting to another young European in Hojgaard.
Hojgaard is only 22 but is already making plenty of noise on the DP World Tour, while his twin brother Nicolai Hojgaard has already been successful on the PGA TOUR. Over in Europe, Rasmus got the win last week at the Made in Himmerland held in his native Denmark. He has also posted three other top-20 finishes this season.
Last year, Rasmus Hojgaard finished tied for 10th at this event, and he will look to build off last week’s success and continue to strengthen his Ryder Cup bid as well. Since he does most of his work on the DP World Tour, he’s relatively unknown in the United States, so he is only projected for under 6% ownership, making him a good play at this price for some leverage against high-owned options like Aaron Rai ($7,800) and Alex Smalley ($7,900), who are strong plays but overly popular at over 13%.
Matthew Jordan $7,000
There are so many strong Europeans to consider in the lower half of the $7K range, including Robert MacIntyre, Alexander Bjork, Adrian Meronk, Thomas Detry, and Seamus Power. I like all those options if you can afford to eat some chalk, but one option that is further off the radar with more savings is Matthew Jordan.
Jordan is a 27-year-old DP World Tour player who just tore up qualifying for next week’s Open Championship, which will be held at Royal Liverpool, where Jordan has been a member since he was seven. Jordan carded rounds of 65 and 69 to finish second in the West Lancashire Final Qualifying.
Before that dream comes true for him, though, he has another chance to make some noise in Scotland. Jordan has been rounding into strong form at just the right time with five straight made cuts on the DP World Tour, including a top 10 at the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed and a top 20 at the Made in Himmerland last week.
Jordan made the cut in both of his previous two appearances at the Renaissance with a T18 two years ago. His current form and solid history should definitely merit more attention than his 2% projected ownership at only $7K.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Richie Ramsay $6,900
Ramsay is a veteran Scotsman who comes in playing well with a good ceiling for a cheap play. The 40-year-old came up just short last week in Denmark, where he double-bogeyed the final hole to miss the playoff won by Hojgaard. He was looking for his fifth DP World Tour career win and second in the last year but ultimately came up just short.
It was a continuation of form for Ramsay, who has made six straight cuts, including three top 10s. He missed this event last year but finished T15 two years ago on this course.
Ramsay has the third-highest ceiling projection of all the players priced under $7K and the highest of any player in that bracket, with an ownership projection under 5%. Ramsay is only projected for a 2.2% ownership, and his current form and course history make him a solid differentiator as a sleeper play.
Troy Merritt $6,200
There are a lot of unfamiliar names sprinkled throughout this salary range, but one name that most U.S. golf fans will be familiar with is Merritt, who has won twice on the PGA TOUR and played over 300 events. It has been a brutal year for Merritt, who admitted recently on Twitter that he was dealing with a case of the yips with his putter. While most pros don’t admit such a thing exists, acknowledging the problem may have been part of the solution for Merritt since he has started to turn things back around.
Merritt missed the cut in 14 straight individual events earlier this season, but when the calendar flipped to July, he suddenly found his footing. He finished T17 two weeks ago in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and matched that with a T17 last week at the John Deere Classic. In both those events, Merritt fired four rounds in the 60s, culminating in an impressive 65 on Sunday at TPC Deere Run to head overseas with some momentum.
Last year, Merritt finished 30th at the Scottish Open after a strong closing 67. If he can continue that momentum and his momentum from the past two weeks, he could end up being an amazing value. Merritt still has a long way to go to stay on the PGA TOUR beyond this season, but he doesn’t have to do much to be a great punt play at barely more than the minimum salary.
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