The PGA TOUR is headed back to the land where golf began, as the top pros tee it up for the Scottish Open this week and The Open Championship next week in the final major of the year. Before we focus on Royal Troon Golf Club for next week’s big tournament, this week’s event will take place at The Renaissance Club on the opposite coast of Scotland, about two hours down the road. The Renaissance Club has hosted this event each of the last five seasons, including each of the last two years when the tournament was in its current format as a joint event between the DP World Tour and the PGA TOUR.
Over the last few years, many of the top golfers in the world have teed it up in this event with top players Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele taking home the victory the last two years. Both those stars are in the field this week, along with Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, and Tommy Fleetwood, who are the five most expensive players in the field for DFS.
The rest of the field is an intriguing mix of DP World Tour players we don’t see a lot in U.S. events and plenty of the top PGA TOUR names. Scottie Scheffler isn’t in the field, but 10 of the top 15 in the FedExCup Standings will tee it up as part of the 75 PGA TOUR players participating, with the other half of the field coming from the DP World Tour. Some of those players have extra history at this track since the event has been on the World Tour longer than the PGA TOUR.
The course designed by Tom Doak is not a traditional links design since it only has four holes along the ocean, plenty of rough and numerous wooded areas. However, it does have similarities with links courses in that it has deep pot bunkers with riveted faces and encourages players to use the ground game around the greens. Like many links designs, the course can be low-scoring or extremely difficult depending on the weather conditions. In general, the course has rewarded long hitters and players who can excel on approach to avoid three-putting on the expansive, undulating greens.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything you right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
Xander Schauffele $11,700
According to ownership projections, Schauffele is getting a little overlooked at the top of this field. He has the lowest ownership projection of the four players over $10,000, which gives him the highest SimLeverage in the field since his 33% Perfect% is second in the field only to Rory’s, but his ownership projection is under 25%.
Schauffele won this event in 2022 and has made the cut all three years he played it with another top 10 in 2021. The 30-year-old Californian has embraced links golf and clearly knows how to navigate to a victory on a wide variety of formats.
All season long, Schauffele has been turning in excellent results with 15 top 25s in his 16 tournaments and 11 top 10s to go with his first major championship at the PGA Championship in May. Since then, he posted top 10s at the Memorial Tournament and the U.S. Open and a T13 at the Travelers in his most recent event.
Not only are his results incredibly consistent, but Schauffele’s game is well-balanced throughout multiple facets of the game. He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds and ranks second in Total Strokes Gained over that span. During that same time frame, he also ranks in the top seven in Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. His well-balanced game plays very well on links courses, and his past success on this track makes him a great play this week.
He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the field, and getting him at 5% lower ownership than Rory makes him a good pivot at the top for GPP lineups.
Min Woo Lee $9,200
Lee is another former champion at this event, claiming his victory in 2021 before he made his splash on the PGA TOUR. He missed the cut in his title defense in 2022 but bounced back with a T35 last year. Lee has the highest SimLeverage of the players between $8,500 and $9,900, since his ownership projection is the lowest of any player with a salary of at least $8,200.
Like Xander, Lee brings a lot of balance across his skill set. He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the last 24 rounds and ranks 11th in Strokes Gained Total. He also ranks 16th in both Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over his last 16 rounds. His iron play has been a little shakier, but it looked locked in at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he finished runner-up two weeks ago. While that was his best finish this season, he has made the cut in 12 of his 13 tournaments this season with seven top 25s.
Both Schauffle and Lee bring excellent, well-balanced form to a track where they have had success in the past. With lower ownership projections, though, they make good Leverage options. Lee has a higher Leverage than any other player with a salary of at least $8,200. The top of this field is loaded with good options, and I love Ludvig Aberg, Tom Kim and Tommy Fleetwood near the top as well, but since Lee offers so much more leverage, he makes the stronger play for GPP lineups.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Brian Harman $8,600
Last year, Harman led into his dominant win at The Open Championship with a T12 at the Scottish Open. He has the third-highest Perfect% of players under $9,000 this week but only the seventh-highest ownership projection.
Since missing the cut at the Masters, Harman has made the cut in seven straight tournaments, finishing in the top 30 in four of his last five, including the U.S. Open and the Travelers Championship, where he posted his third top 10 of the season.
Harman isn’t a big hitter like Lee and Schauffele, but he makes up for it with his elite short game that really shines in links format. He ranks in the top 20 in the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds and seems to be rounding into top form just in time for his title defense next week. While his ownership isn’t as low as I would like, it’s still under 14%, which means he offers leverage over the other popular big names in this price range.
Wyndham Clark $8,100
Clark has the second-highest SimLeverage of the mid-priced tier behind only Sungjae Im, whose track record on links courses isn’t great. Clark’s game is a much better fit for this course, and he has posted two top 25s in his two appearances at the Renaissance Club.
Clark has the fourth-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of the players under $9,000, along with the fourth-highest Perfect% and the fifth-best odds to win, according to Vegas. Getting him priced down to just over $8,000 makes him seem like a good deal, and his strength as a GPP play is only amplified by his ownership projection under 10%.
Part of the reason the public is steering away from Clark is that he struggled a little bit due to a back injury after near misses earlier this season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. He did post a third-place finish at the RBC Heritage in a Signature Event during that span, though, and looked strong in his most recent tournament at the Travelers, where he finished T9.
Before that strong showing at TPC River Highlands, his short-term form was rough, but his long-term form shows promise. He still ranks in the top 25 in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Strokes Gained over the last six months. If his turnaround at the Travelers sticks, he could definitely contend this week.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Robert MacIntyre $7,800
This is a home game for Bobby Mac, so I’m surprised that his ownership projection is under 10% and less than half of last week’s winner, Davis Thompson’s. MacIntyre finished runner-up to Rory last year and also had a pair of top 20s on this track in 2020 and 2021.
MacIntyre broke through for his first PGA TOUR win at the RBC Canadian Open and also finished in the top 20 at the Travelers later in June. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic, but this tournament and venue seem to be a much better fit for the lefty’s strengths.
He ranks sixth in the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 20 rounds, 15th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and second in Strokes Gained: Putting. His power off the tee and experience with the creativity that links courses require set him up for success.
MacIntyre has the sixth-highest Perfect% and the seventh-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of the 140 players with salaries under $8,000. Of the 15 players with salaries between $7,000 and $8,000, he has only the eighth-highest ownership projection and the third-highest SimLeverage.
Erik van Rooyen $7,000
EVR has put together a very nice season on the PGA TOUR, and he’s frequently overlooked, which makes him a recurring character in my GPP picks. This week, he has the top SimLeverage of all players with salaries under $10,000 and the third-highest in the whole field behind only Xander and Rory. Van Rooyen’s ownership projection is under 4% but his Perfect% is higher than any other player under $7,500.
Van Rooyen has a strong history at this event, with a pair of top 15s from his time on the DP World Tour. He did miss the cut in 2022 and only finished T68 last year, but his recent form should help him rediscover that success from earlier in his career. From his time on the DP World Tour, he should be very familiar with links setups and feel very comfortable on this track.
This year on the PGA TOUR, Van Rooyen has made the cut in 13-of-17 events with eight top 25s. He finished T6 two weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which was a nice bounceback after missing the cut at the U.S. Open. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks 18th in the field in Total Strokes Gained, 21st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
He has shown the necessary skills to truly contend on this course and in this format, which is enough to make him a good play at only $7,000. Getting him at such a low ownership as well makes him one of the best GPP options at any price this week.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Jordan L. Smith $6,600
With all the DP World Tour players in the field, the salary structure is loaded with 123 players with salaries under $7,000. There are plenty of potential sleepers to choose from, but a few stand out as the strongest plays. Smith has the second-highest Perfect% of all the players under $7,000, and the 31-year-old from England sets up to be a great value option.
Smith finished in the top 25 each of the last two years at The Renaissance Club and is coming off a runner-up finish last week at the BMW International Open. He has made the cut in 11 of his 13 events on the DP World Tour and the PGA TOUR, including a T39 at the PGA Championship, a T2 at the Jonsson Workwear Open and a T4 at the Dubai Invitational to start 2024.
On the DP World Tour, he has a reputation as one of the best and most consistent ball-strikers who can contend when his flat stick doesn’t hold him back. His experience and ball striking should be enough to get him to the weekend this week, making him a great bargain play with a good ceiling.
Smith has the second-highest median, ceiling and floor projection of the players under $7,000, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the players with salaries in the $6,000s.
Keita Nakajima $6,300
Nakajima is my flier play for the week and comes with some very strong indicators for success even though he has an ownership projection under 1%.
The 24-year-old from Japan sat atop the World Amateur Golf Ranking for a record 87 straight weeks before turning pro in 2022. He finished in the top 15 of the ZOZO Championship in his first professional event. In 2023, he won three times on the Japan Golf Tour during his rookie season and claimed his first DP World Tour win at the end of March at the Hero Indian Open, where he won by four strokes.
He missed the cut at the PGA Championship after that win but bounced back with a T6 at the European Open and a top 20 at the BMW International Open in his two most recent events. While the shot tracking data isn’t quite as robust on the DP World Tour, it indicates that Nakajima is well above average in Driving Distance and has been solid on approach. His putting has been streaky but hot lately, and his main struggles have come scrambling around the green. The links setup should play to his strengths this week, and I expect a strong showing based on his strong recent results.
Nakajima matches the most Pro Trends of any player under $7,000 and has the highest SimLeverage and third highest Leverage in that price range as well. He’s one of the rising stars on the DP World Tour who could become a regular on the PGA TOUR in the future, and he’s a bargain play I’m excited to follow this week in Scotland.
