The weekly Funnel Defense Ratings uses advanced data to analyze situations in which teams are more likely to pass or run than they usually do. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
About a month ago I introduced a new funnel metric; see that piece for the explanation on how I created it. The metric has some hits and misses, and there are a couple reasons it’s best thought of as descriptive rather than predictive. First, I don’t incorporate Vegas data (although I’ll include it in the ratings table below), mostly because I don’t have exact numbers on historical run/pass ratios based on Vegas spreads and implied team totals. That’s a large project perhaps for the offseason. Second, and this is important to remember, some teams simply refuse to funnel production to either part of their offense. We saw this with the Steelers a couple weeks ago: Although their opponent (the Jags) boasted an elite secondary and were the best against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Ben Roethlisberger chucked it 55 times.
Week 10 gave us another prime example of why NFL coaches suck at coaching football. From Matthew Freedman:
Example: In Week 10, the Jaguars were -5.0 home favorites against the Chargers, whose defense came into the game ninth against the pass but 26th against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles had a subpar career mark of 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt, and the Jags were first in the league with a 52.9 percent rush rate. With the return of stud rookie running back Leonard Fournette, who hadn’t played since Week 6, the Jags did exactly what you’d expect: They ran the ball 27 times — four of which were quarterback scrambles, one of which was a quarterback kneel, and one of which was a fake punt — and Bortles threw 51 pass attempts even though the Jags never trailed by more than eight points. Phrased differently: The Jags didn’t do what any rational person would expect them to do. They’re incredibly lucky they didn’t lose.
As always, take these funnel ratings with a grain of salt. They’re useful in identifying situations where a team could be funneled into the run or pass or where a game might shoot out — but maybe not. Sometimes coaches suck at coaching.
Still, we press on. Here are the Week 11 funnel ratings.
Potential Shootout Games
Last week, I pointed out the Giants-49ers game as a potential shootout spot and one that could provide value especially since the Jets-Bucs game was going to be highly-owned in DFS. That worked out well: The first game went for 52 points — way above their over/under of 41.5 — while the second one disappointed to the tune of 25 points. As you’ll see below, there’s definitely not a direct correlation between combined pass funnel ratings and Vegas totals. Part of that is because some of these offenses are bad, but it’s also because there might be some inefficiencies here. Let’s dive in and discuss a couple situations that stand out for Week 11.
Despite having a low total of only 40 points, the game that stands out with the highest combined pass funnel rating is the Bucs at Dolphins, which is particularly interesting after the Bucs disappointed everyone last week. Perhaps the public was just a week early: In Week 10 Tampa Bay faced the Jets, who aren’t a great pass defense, but they’re certainly much better than Miami and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was missing his No. 1 receiver in Mike Evans. As sharp NFL analyst Mike Tagliere mentioned on this week’s NFL Flex podcast, Fitzpatrick likes to hone in on his top WR; he doesn’t typically do as well with secondary or tertiary options, and he especially doesn’t like to target his tight ends (sorry, Cameron Brate).
This week he gets a Miami team that is a much stronger pass funnel defense: They’re ranked 31st in pass DVOA and own the second-highest pass funnel rating among defenses this year. They’re on a short week after getting lit up by Cam Newton on Monday night to the tune of 254 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. Fitzmagic gets his stud WR Evans back, and he has upside: Just a couple seasons ago he had a game with 358 passing yards and six touchdowns. That won’t happen again, but can this offense have three or four touchdowns through the air? That’s not inconceivable. And if you want to run things back for the game stack, there’s a really solid option in DeVante Parker, who was one of the two “Blue Chips” discussed by Ian Hartitz in this week’s WR/CB matchup column.
On the negative side, the Eagles-Cowboys and Redskins-Saints games have two of the three lowest pass funnel ratings despite having two of the highest Vegas totals on the slate at 48 and 51 points, respectively. Those games do feature currently awesome offenses in the Eagles and Saints, so betting the under is scary, but it could be profitable.
Notable Potential Funnels
The three strongest run funnel situations this week unfortunately aren’t too exciting for a myriad of reasons. The Cleveland Browns own the top rating at 77.7, but they’re 7.5-point underdogs and don’t have a featured RB with 20-touch upside. Isaiah Crowell has gone for 16.5 and 20.8 DraftKings points in his past two games, but it’s also possible that the Jaguars aren’t really a great matchup for running backs anymore with Marcell Dareus on the team now. The team with the second-highest run funnel rating is the Bears, who have a featured back in Jordan Howard. The Bears are underdogs vs. the Lions, but it’s only three points and they’re at home, where Howard has posted noticeable positive splits over his short career:
After disappointing lots of cash-game players in Week 10, Howard could be underowned in Week 11.
And finally, the team with the third-highest run funnel rating is the Buffalo Bills, who just benched starting QB Tyrod Taylor for rookie Nathan Peterman. It remains to be seen how that switch will affect LeSean McCoy, but it’s unlikely to be overwhelmingly positive.
The two teams with the highest pass funnel ratings this week are the Bucs, who I discussed above, and the Patriots, who get a Raiders defense ranked dead last in both total and pass DVOA as of this week. That seems bad against Tom Brady and a New England offense that ranks first in pass offense DVOA. Brady just shredded Denver’s “No Fly Zone” secondary for 266 yards and three touchdowns at Mile High Stadium. What can he do against these Raiders? One last note: In Friday’s Action Network newsletter, Chad Millman highlighted the Patriots RBs, who have a sneaky-good matchup, as Oakland ranks 28th in pass DVOA specifically to RBs. They’re also cheap: Matthew Freedman highlighted Rex Burkhead as a “low-cost high-total GPP smash” in this week’s RB Breakdown.
Good luck this week!
