The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Chargers at Falcons
This game currently has the highest Vegas total on the slate at 53 points. The Falcons are 6.5-point home favorites and have the highest team total of the week at 29.75 points. The Chargers are implied to score 23.25 points as road underdogs.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
Rivers is fifth in fantasy points per drop back (0.51), sixth in passer rating (105.9), third in yards per attempt (8.2), and currently leads the league in red-zone pass attempts (7.5 per game) in 2016. The Falcons currently rank 26th in total defense, 23rd against the pass, and 22nd against the run, per Football Outsiders. Rivers is a solid GPP option this week; he has the third-highest projected ceiling of any quarterback, is playing in the highest-implied game of the week, and is projected for just two to four percent ownership in the FD Sunday Million. Per our Trends tool, road underdog quarterbacks at a similar salary range and projected points typically perform above salary-based expectation:
RB – Melvin Gordon
Gordon is tied for second in the NFL in total touchdowns (seven) and has failed to score in just one game in 2016. His lack of efficiency and touchdown dependency (39.07 percent of his total DraftKings points) is a bit scary, but it at least is propped up by his league-leading 27 red-zone rush attempts. Further, he owns a 92.9 percent and 100 percent rushing share inside the 10- and five-yard lines. He may be a tough sell in cash as a road underdog, but Gordon has zero competition in this backfield and has enough involvement in the passing game and touchdown equity to provide value; he has the seventh-highest projected floor on the slate on DK (11.7 points).
WR – Travis Benjamin
After averaging 70.8 percent of the snaps in the first five weeks, Benjamin played just 38 percent of the snaps in Week 6. He will look to turn things around in Week 7 against a Falcons defense ranked 23rd against the pass, per DVOA. According to our NFL Matchups tool, Benjamin will see the majority of his snaps against Desmond Trufant, PFF’s 23rd-ranked CB in 2016. This is a tough matchup for Benjamin, but he does come with FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
Benjamin (knee) missed some practice time this week. He’s listed as questionable but expected to play.
WR – Tyrell Williams
Williams is tied for second in the league in red-zone targets and owns 22.5 and 28.6 percent target shares inside the 20- and 10-yard lines, respectively. Further, he is still only $4,400 on DraftKings. In the highest Vegas total game of the week, Tyrell should be a very popular play in both cash games and GPPs; he has FantasyLabs projected ownership of 17 to 20 percent on both sites. After a rough last game against Denver, use negative recency bias to your advantage.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
Inman out-snapped Benjamin and Williams again in Week 6, something he has done every week in 2016. However, he has been targeted more than four times just once this year. Clearly, he is not a focal point of what the Chargers are trying to do on offense; he owns only 13.67 percent of their targets in the last month. As such, he’s nothing more than a GPP dart.
TE – Hunter Henry
Henry leads all TEs on DK with nine Pro Trends; he boasts an 86 percent Bargain Rating there, as well as low five to eight percent projected ownership. He’s currently the second-highest rated TE in our DK Tournament Model. Henry goes up against a Falcons defense that has allowed the position to score 2.8 points over salary-based expectations on DK in the last year. However, with Gates back, Henry’s upside will be diminished; they will likely cannibalize each other in the red zone.
TE – Antonio Gates
Gates is also in punt consideration this week, as he is the highest-rated TE in the Adam Levitan Model. At just $2,900 on DK, he comes with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus (5.8), a 99 percent Bargain Rating, and just two to four percent projected ownership.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
After a close loss last week, expect Ryan and the Falcons’ passing attack to get back on track at home against the visiting Chargers. San Diego is currently giving up the second-most pass completions, fifth-most passing yards, and ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Playing at home against a bottom-10 pass defense, Ryan has thrived in these situations recently:
With San Diego likely down two of their top cornerbacks (Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers) again, Week 7 could be a potentially massive week for Ryan. Per our Player Models, no QB has a higher point projection than Ryan’s 25.3 points on DraftKings; he’s an excellent cash or GPP play.
RB – Devonta Freeman
The Chargers have struggled against opposing running backs this year, giving up a +2.6 Plus/Minus on DK to the position and the second-most fantasy points. Averaging 3.7 targets per game this season, Freeman should be heavily utilized in both a rushing and receiving role this week; San Diego is giving up the most receptions to opposing running backs and the second-most receiving yards. Dating back to the beginning of the 2015 season, only Theo Riddick has more receptions than Freeman’s 90 among RBs. Priced at just $5,900 on DK, Freeman makes for a great option at running back given their PPR scoring.
RB – Tevin Coleman
Considering that San Diego is bottom-10 in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) metric, Freeman and Coleman could both be potentially in play this week. Coleman is a superior value on FanDuel, given his soft $6,200 salary and 86 percent Bargain Rating compared to Freeman’s high $7,500 salary and 56 percent Bargain Rating. Coleman has eight Pro Trends in his favor this week on FD and has FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent. His inconsistent play makes him difficult to roster in cash games, but this matchup definitely warrants GPP exposure.
WR – Julio Jones
If Flowers misses time again this week, Julio could have a monster day running the majority of his routes against Steve Williams. Williams has been lined up as the right cornerback for the majority of his snaps, which is where Julio has lined up for 46 percent of his routes, per PFF. Averaging 8.3 targets per game and seeing a 27.2 percent target market share in Atlanta’s offense, Julio could see a slight uptick in volume given the matchup. Opposing quarterbacks have been picking on Williams to date; he’s been targeted on 30 percent of his routes defended this year — the highest rate in the league. Julio’s 29.4-point projected ceiling on FD leads all receivers this week and he’s projected to be owned in 31 to 40 percent of lineups. He is the chalk.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Sanu had his best game since Week 1 last week against the Seahawks’ tough cornerbacks, catching five passes for 47 yards and a score. He draws a much easier matchup this week against Craig Mager, PFF’s 90th-ranked cornerback in 2016. Sanu faces a San Diego defense that is tied for the eighth-most receiving touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers.
WR – Justin Hardy
Over the past three weeks, Hardy, Taylor Gabriel, and Aldrick Robinson have each had a week ranked third among Falcons wide receivers in snaps. However, that’s not a particularly fantasy-friendly role: Hardy received only 7.32 percent of the Falcons’ targets in Week 6.
TE – Jacob Tamme
Tamme has seen his usage drop: He averaged 6.7 targets per game over the first three weeks but has since received just two targets over his past three games. The Chargers have allowed receptions to TEs at a top-10 rate this year, but they have yet to give up any big fantasy performances and have allowed just one receiving touchdown to the position on the season. Tamme (and the rest of Atlanta’s tight ends) remains a GPP dart at best.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
