The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB Carson Wentz
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Against the Broncos this weekend, Carson Wentz will look to maintain the Eagle’s league-leading record as a -7.5 home favorite, a trend that’s given Wentz a +2.2 Plus/Minus over his career. The matchup is sure to depress ownership: Quarterbacks facing the Denver Broncos’ No. 2-ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average have been owned at only 0.7 percent this season on DraftKings. While Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib are an elite tandem of top-25 corners (Pro Football Focus), they have yielded the second-highest passer rating (116.0) on 30 deep attempts. Wentz has completed 22 of his 55 deep throws for six touchdowns on the year. He also has a prime stacking partner in tight end Zach Ertz. The Broncos have struggled with tight ends in 2017, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game (PPG) to the position. Wentz should be able to funnel attempts to his favorite target in Ertz with no issue. A Wentz-Ertz stack may come at the lowest ownership percentage it has been all year on Sunday.
RB Doug Martin
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
You won’t see Doug Martin’s name on the top of any of the 2017 fantasy leaderboards through Week 8. In the past month, Martin has averaged only 17.5 touches and 75 yards per game, finding the end zone just twice. He’s had, however, a string of rough matchups with top-12 rush DVOA defenses, facing Arizona, Buffalo, and Carolina. Trailing early in each game, the Bucs were forced into pass-heavy game scripts, running on only 35 percent of plays. In Week 9, though, there may be promise in his matchup with the Saints. We should consider his Week 5 return against the Patriots as the most relevant comparison, as the Saints and Patriots rank 29th and 28th in rush defense (DVOA). Against the Pats, Martin averaged 5.8 yards per touch on 14 touches, adding a goal-line touchdown and scoring 15.2 DraftKings points. In the past two weeks, the Saints have allowed two 100-yard rushers and three rushing touchdowns. On the season, they’ve allowed 26.07 DraftKings PPG to opposing rushers. Martin is a 7.0-point road underdog, but he has the league’s 12th-ranked offensive line (Football Outsiders) and the best matchup he has seen all month.
WR Sammy Watkins
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and 0-1 percent FanDuel
Sammy Watkins seemingly had his breakout with the Rams against the 49ers in Week 3, but after that he faced elite cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Jaelen Ramsey, and Patrick Peterson. His luck, though, seems to have changed, as Giants corner Janoris Jenkins has been indefinitely suspended and will miss the Week 9 matchup against the Rams. Instead of facing Jenkins, Watkins will line up across from second-string corner Ross Cockrell, who has allowed an above-average 1.46 yards per route and has been targeted on 20 percent of his coverage snaps. Watkins leads his team in average depth of target (aDOT) at 15.2 yards, and Goff has attempted five deep shots per game. Watkins’ target numbers haven’t been consistent this year, but he has a nearly 80 percent snap rate and a 91 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating.
WR Brandon Coleman
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Willie Snead seems to be ‘ready to return’ nearly every week, but Brandon Coleman is yet to be supplanted. Even when healthy in Week 8, Snead was out-snapped by Coleman 48-4. Coleman isn’t a featured part of the Saints offense, but in both of Drew Brees’ best passing performances this year (against Green Bay and New England) Coleman totaled six receptions on nine targets for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Coleman has seen four red-zone targets this year, and, according to Rich Hribar, no team has allowed more plays to be run in the red zone than the Bucs. Coleman has run 71 percent of his routes out of the slot (Pro Football Focus) and the 6’6” receiver will lineup across from the 5’10” Vernon Hargreaves this Sunday. No Buccaneers corner has allowed more fantasy points per route than Hargreaves (0.33). Coleman isn’t a go-to option but he may benefit from the obvious size mismatch while the Saints are in the red zone. At just $3400 on DraftKings, Coleman has a 94 percent Bargain Rating in our Models.
TE Cameron Brate
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
No tight end has been targeted at a higher rate than Cameron Brate. He currently ranks 12th in overall tight end targets and third in red-zone targets behind Ertz and Rob Gronkowski. Next to wide receiver Mike Evans, Brate is Jameis Winston’s favorite red-zone option, as both have nine targets inside the 20-yard line. In pass-heavy game scripts for most of October, Brate racked up 31 targets in just four games, scoring twice. Many of the pass catchers in the Bucs-Saints matchup project to be popular this week, as the game is second on the slate with an over/under of 52.0 points. Brate makes an intriguing contrarian option for game stacks and currently holds the fourth-highest player rating among DraftKings tight ends in the Bales Model.
News Updates
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