The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB: C.J. Beathard
Projected Ownership: 5-8 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
Note: On Friday, Beathard’s projected ownership was elevated from 2-4 percent on DraftKings to 5-8. Be sure to track changes to our projections throughout the weekend.
In relief of Brian Hoyer on Sunday, C.J. Beathard, the rookie from Iowa, threw for 245 yards on 35 attempts, mounting a 24-point comeback on the road against the league’s 10th-ranked defense (Football Outsiders). Till the last nine seconds of the game, when he gave up an interception, Beathard played mistake-free football and led two touchdown-scoring drives of 75 yards. What’s notable is that Beathard had the second-most passing yards the Washington defense has yielded all year. The home matchup with the Cowboys defense (30th) should be a friendly one; the Cowboys yield 19.8 DraftKings points per game (PPG) to quarterbacks. The over/under has jumped 1.5 points since opening, the second-largest move on the slate. It’s hard to project a rookie in his first start, but playing as a home dog in a possible shootout could give Beathard fantasy relevance.
RB: Frank Gore
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent (DraftKings and FanDuel)
Robert Turbin was the one back Frank Gore owners wanted to see exit the picture. While it seems possible that Marlon Mack may be the greatest beneficiary from Turbin’s season-ending elbow injury, it’s likely that Frank Gore will be keep reminding us that he’s “still got it.” Pagano made a point of saying in Week 6 that, “Mack isn’t ready to be a three-down back.” That’s likely because of his 28 percent success rate, which is 16 percentage points below league average and nine points below Gore’s mark (Sharp Football Stats).
Coming into Week 7, Turbin owned a 32 percent snap rate, getting six touches per game. Specifically, Turbin saw six opportunities inside the 20-yard line and three inside the five. Gore has been effective in his diminished role, averaging 16 touches per game and over four yards per touch, but he’s earned only one touch inside the five. If the veteran can earn a few more touches and the goal-line work, he may be a solid value at home against the Jags, who have allowed 5.36 yards per carry and more than 30 yards receiving per game to backs.
RB: James White
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent FanDuel
Uncertainty in the Patriots backfield will drive down ownership for all of the New England backs. Of the group, James White may offer the most certainty. His price ($4800 FanDuel, main slate) and snap rate (48.6 percent) make him a target for GPP lineups. While Dion Lewis and Mike Gillislee have collectively gotten more volume and played more snaps, White has nearly 11 opportunities per game and is getting nearly all the passing game work as the featured back in three-wide receiver sets. The Falcons-Patriots game leads the slate with a game total of 56.5 points, but the Pats are only -3.5 home favorites, and pass-catching backs with comparable Vegas marks have historically averaged a +2.03 Plus/Minus. And, lest we forget, White destroyed the Falcons in the Super Bowl, going for 139 total yards and two touchdowns on 20 touches. Last year the Falcons allowed a league-high 54.4 yards receiving per game to opposing backfields, and this year they are comparably bad, allowing 53.2. White has a 98 percent Bargain Rating and eight Pro Trends on FanDuel.
WR: Marqise Lee
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings, 0-1 percent FanDuel
Any wide receiver attached to Blake Bortles is unappealing, but consider Marqise Lee, who has a respectable 40 targets on the year. He’s reeled in only 20 of those, but Lee is cheap on DraftKings ($4,300) and facing a Colts team that has yielded a league-high 32 points per game. Lee isn’t traditionally a red-zone threat, and the Jags run the ball at the highest rate in the league, but he has big-play potential with a team-high 456 air yards and 138 yards after the catch. He has a 47 percent Upside Rating over the last year.
TE: Jack Doyle
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings, 0-1 percent FanDuel
Jack Doyle has fallen out of favor with the fantasy community recently, but after returning from the concussion protocol he earned 11 targets and caught a touchdown from Jacoby Brissett on Monday night. Sure, he fumbled and dropped a pass that hit him in the hands, but he’s proven to be one of Brissett’s favorite targets, with more than seven targets in three games. While the Jaguars defense is tough against the pass, they have allowed 25 percent of their weekly passing yards to tight ends and three touchdowns on the year to the position. While cornerbacks Jaelen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are likely to shut down the outside of the field, Brissett may look more frequently to Doyle in the middle, as he did against Seattle, Arizona, and Tennessee. When wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has been smothered by elite corner play, Doyle has averaged nearly nine targets per game.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
