The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Jameis Winston
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent (DraftKings and FanDuel)
It seems unreasonable to keep coming back to quarterbacks against the Cardinals, but there is too much to like about Jameis Winston this week in the desert. Winston is coming off a long week of rest and is a road favorite in a game that has seen its total jump 1.5 points since opening. Only two favored quarterbacks have received that positive Vegas attention this week: Winston and Deshaun Watson. On average, the Cardinals have allowed 20.15 DraftKings points to the position (seventh). Three quarterbacks have scored three or more touchdowns against them this year, with Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford throwing for four. Only Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer have struggled to score against this defense.
Winston has thrown for 320 yards in three consecutive matchups (against the Patriots, Giants, and Vikings), and while his completion percentage has been volatile in those games he has had the third-highest first down rate of all quarterbacks behind just Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady at 43 percent. Perhaps what is most appealing about Winston in this matchup is his ability to stretch the field. According to PlayerProfiler.com, he has thrown for the fourth-most air yards of all quarterbacks, with 12.1 yards per pass attempt, also fourth. The Cardinals have been susceptible to the deep ball, allowing four completions over 40 yards this year (third). Three of those resulted in touchdowns, and Brice Butler added a 37-yard score in Week 3. Winston will have DeSean Jackson matched up on the outside with Justin Bethel, who has allowed 0.43 fantasy points per route, the fifth-highest average in the league (Pro Football Focus). For more on Winston, see our Week 6 quarterback breakdown.
Buck Allen
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent (DraftKings)
Buck Allen is currently 12th in overall touches and running back targets. He has averaged 17.2 touches per game this year, and in every game since Week 1 he has earned at least five targets, boasting an excellent 83 percent catch rate. While he has not been explosive, he seems to be the Ravens’ favorite back in positive game script. In Weeks 1, 2, and 5, the Ravens jumped out to early leads on the Bengals, Browns, and Raiders. In those games, Allen saw at least 20 total opportunities on more than 60 percent of snaps. He could be in line for more positive game script as a home favorite, with the league’s second-ranked pass defense facing a rookie quarterback.
C.J. Anderson
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent (FanDuel)
In Week 5, Melvin Gordon was a featured piece of many winning lineups. Underpriced and demanding more touches, he torched the Giants for 30-plus points. This week, the Giants will see C.J. Anderson, who has seen an average of 20.8 touches per game with at least one opportunity inside the 10-yard line in each game. He simply hasn’t been able to come away with a touchdown in the green zone. That should progress with more opportunities, and the Broncos create plenty of opportunities, tied for first in red-zone plays per game with 12.8.
Like Allen, Anderson is his team’s preferred back in positive game script. In dominant wins against Dallas and Oakland, Anderson had 52 total touches for 266 total yards, and he’s likely to have positive game script this week, as the 0-5 Giants are on the road with seven starters ruled out, and they’re facing the league’s eighth-ranked defense, which is coming off a week of rest. Anderson rates highly in our Models for FanDuel, where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating and nine Pro Trends.
Martavis Bryant
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent (DraftKings and FanDuel)
Going into Arrowhead hasn’t been great for visiting wide receivers, but going deep on the Chiefs is becoming a popular trend. Martavis Bryant may be the next wide receiver to take a shot on this team, which has been attacked deep more than any other. Opposing offenses have heaved the ball for a league high 55 attempts: That’s 11 targets per game traveling at least 16 yards down the field. The Chiefs have allowed 20 of those for receptions and a total of 641 yards and three touchdowns. While Antonio Brown sees nearly two times as many targets, Bryant has a clear deep role with an 18.1-yard average depth of target on 6.2 targets per game.
Bryant is likely to be matched up with Marcus Peters for much of the game, and while that might seem like a tough matchup it’s Peters’ right side of the field that has been burned this year for 284 yards and two touchdowns. Bryant has Peters beat in all the measurables: Height, weight, and speed. While he’s a boom-or-bust proposition, Bryant’s nearly half the price of Brown, and he may benefit from negative game script in Arrowhead, as the Steelers have thrown the ball on 75 percent of plays when trailing.
Martellus Bennett
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Through five weeks Martellus Bennett is tied with Randall Cobb for total targets on the Packers and has five more than Jordy Nelson. With 31 total targets, Bennett is sixth among tight ends but yet to find the end zone. In fact, he’s the only tight end with more than 30 targets this year who hasn’t scored. While the Vikings, on the whole, have a stingy defense, they are allowing an average of 11.52 DraftKings points to the position on a weekly basis, the eighth-most points in football. Bennett may find his way into the end zone this week, as the Packers throw on 62.5 percent of red zone plays, and the Vikings have only allowed one rushing touchdown on the year.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
