The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB: Carson Wentz vs. Arizona Cardinals
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings, 0-1 percent FanDuel
At first glance, Carson Wentz’s matchup with Arizona seems to be less than ideal. Between 2012-2016, the Cardinals defense never ranked lower than seventh in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In 2017, they have slipped to 12th overall and are 19th in pass defense, allowing an average of 18.13 DraftKings points per game (PPG) to quarterbacks. The Eagles are even worse in pass defense, setting up a potential shootout, as they face an offense that averages 45.75 pass attempts per game and ranks third with 25.77 seconds per play. The Cardinals and Eagles rank first and second in total plays per game, which is good for Wentz: Signal callers who attempt 30 passes in games projected for at least 69 plays have averaged 20.67 DraftKings PPG with a +3.17 Plus/Minus and 66.7 percent Consistency Rating.
Aside from the matchup, Wentz has another quiet advantage in his corner: His legs. In 2017, Wentz has scrambled an average of five times per game for 24 yards. Quarterbacks with comparable scrambling ability have historically averaged a +3.24 Plus/Minus. Wentz is worth a look in tournament lineups given that he will likely have low ownership.
RB: Duke Johnson vs. New York Jets
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
If I asked you to name a running back who has scored more than 21 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks, you might mention Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell, or Todd Gurley, but you might forget about Duke Johnson. In 2017, Johnson has averaged a +5.37 Plus/Minus, exceeding projections in three of four matchups. He’s leading the Browns offense in total targets, receptions, and receiving yards, averaging 9.5 opportunities per game and 8.8 yards per touch. His rushing and receiving workload has increased over the last two weeks, and he’s scored in both games. While many of the targets are on short routes, Johnson has been excellent in space, ranking ninth among running backs with 129 total yards after the catch. Per PlayerProfiler, he averages over four evaded tackles per game (14th among all running backs), and his open field success is seen in his 53.3 percent Juke Rate (fourth). His matchup with the Jets projects to be the best he’s seen all year. After facing three top-10 units (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati) in the first month, Duke faces a Jets unit allowing the third-most DraftKings PPG to running backs (30.15).
WR: Kenny Stills vs. Tennessee Titans
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Dolphins wide receivers hold the highest Opponent Plus/Minus in the slate, and Stills is the highest-rated receiver in one of our Models. The Titans have been gashed repeatedly this year, allowing 46.0 DraftKings PPG to receivers. While Stills is not a steady target in the Dolphins offense, he has seen a 95 percent snap rate, matching Parker and Landry through three games. In Week 3, Stills was the object of quarterback Jay Cutler‘s affection, earning 10 targets, leading his team with a 16.6-yard average depth of target. Stills is a boom-or-bust proposition with his moderate 17.1 percent target share, but in an excellent matchup he is a natural pivot away from the chalky DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry, who project to be owned as highly as 20 percent. For more on the Dolphins wide receivers, check out the Week 5 wide receiver breakdown.
TE: Jared Cook
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
With quarterback EJ Manuel starting in Oakland and the Baltimore defense coming to town, it seems unlikely that many rosters will feature Oakland pass catchers, but Jared Cook has the best matchup of all Oakland skill position players. While Baltimore has been phenomenal this year with its second-ranked pass DVOA, the Ravens are dead last in pass DVOA against tight ends. Aside from Week 1, when they only allowed nine total yards and two receptions to the Cincinnati Tylers (Eifert and Kroft), the Ravens have allowed an average of 4.6 receptions for 74 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game to tight ends. Last Sunday in Denver, Manuel targeted Cook on four of 17 passes, two of which were in the red zone. If Baltimore succeeds in taking away Cooper and Crabtree, that will likely funnel even more targets to Cook, who owns a 92 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel with seven Pro Trends.
DST: Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
The world has quickly become smitten with rookie Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, but he will meet the Chiefs on Sunday night, which may dampen the mood in Houston. Kansas City boasts the second-lowest touchdown rate in the league, ranking 11th in defensive DVOA and creating six turnovers and 11 sacks through Week 4. While Watson has played well, his offensive line has not. In a recent quarterly review of pass blocking efficiency by Pro Football Focus, the Texans front ranked dead last, allowing 68 total pressures and 10 sacks thus far. The Chiefs are pricy, but that should lead to depressed ownership.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
