This piece focuses on five golfers projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after contests lock to track ownership rates across all buy-in levels.
Five Under Five
Not Fidel
As I noted last week, a great way to find potentially low-owned yet good golfers in our Models is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries could also have low ownership.
This week, it’s Roberto Castro who shows up tied for 26th with his 70.1 LT Adj Rd Score. Castro will likely have no problem keeping the ball in play off the tee: His 68.4 LT Driving Accuracy (DA) ranks eighth in the field. Castro has made two of three cuts at TPC Deere Run but hasn’t finished higher than 44th at the course. That said, he was sharp last week, finishing 20th at the Greenbrier Classic with a +23.06 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Let’s Head Downtown (Again)
Scott Brown was featured in last week’s Five Under Five, but he missed the cut. However, Brown has missed only one cut at the John Deere in his last five outings, and his 69.3 Course Adj Rd Score ranks fifth among golfers with at least five starts in our database. In Brown’s five TPC Deere Run events since 2015, he has two top-10 performances, finishing worse than 22nd only once (when he missed the cut). Per PGATour.com, his scoring average in 18 competitive rounds at TPC Deere Run is a stellar 67.67. Hopefully, recency bias from last week’s missed cut and his bad recent form — he’s missed the cut twice in his last three starts — will keep his ownership low this week.
Pigu
We currently have Andres Romero projected at two to four percent ownership. Romero has made three straight cuts at Deere Run, playing the weekend four out of five times here since 2010. Romero has also been playing well in Europe: He won the BMW International Open three weeks ago and finished 42nd at the Irish Open last week. Romero didn’t score fewer than 78.5 DraftKings points in either event, and his 140.5 points at the BMW was a massive total. Outside of DFS, Romero currently has +6,600 moneyline odds in the prop markets to finish as the first-round leader. Andres shot an opening-round 68 his last time out, and he carded an opening round 67 at the BMW, so he’s as likely to lead the first round as any of the other golfers with similar moneyline odds.
The Almost Winner
Last week, Sebastian Munoz nearly pulled off the wire-to-wire victory and looked pretty good doing it with 22 birdies, three rounds under 70, and 102.0 DraftKings points. Oh how quickly we forget. Munoz has made three of his last four cuts and his 69.4 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks 16th in this week’s field. Sebastian’s 15.7 Recent Adj Bird Avg is fourth overall, and his 66.8 Recent Greens In Regulation (GIR) percentage ranks 19th.
When Irish Eyes Are Smiling
If you’re looking to fill out your lineup with a cheap player, likely to be both low-owned and make the cut, Seamus Power could be your guy. Power has made the cut in six of his last seven events, averaging 52.78 DraftKings points during that stretch. Power is tied for 30th in the field with his 69.9 Recent Adj Rd Score and 11th with his 28.2 Recent Adj Putts Per Round (in what could become a glorified putting contest). We currently project Power at zero to one percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools.
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Good luck, and be sure to do your own PGA research with the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
