Drafting rookies in fantasy football is hard. Rookies have lower hit rates than veterans because it’s harder to evaluate their talent and scheme fit. But this doesn’t mean they should be ignored. Rookies win us money, especially in best ball leagues, which eliminate the need to focus on weekly matchups. Here are five rookie running backs to target in DRAFT best ball leagues at their current average draft positions (ADPs).
Joe Mixon (Bengals), 37.9 ADP
At 6’1” and 226 lbs., Mixon is built like a workhorse and in college he produced like one. With 300 carries in his two-year career, Mixon averaged 6.8 yards per carry, adding 65 receptions for 894 yards and nine touchdowns as a pass catcher. With his size and athleticism (4.50-second 40), the running backs to whom Mixon is most comparable as a receiver are Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Drafted in the second round by the Bengals, Mixon has an opportunity to earn significant playing time as a rookie. Jeremy Hill is technically still the starter, but in the two seasons since his rookie breakout Hill has failed to reach 4.0 yards per carry (YPC), subsisting on volume and goal-line opportunities. Hill has had only two games with 100 yards rushing over the past two years; they both came against the woeful Browns. Although Hill will likely still retain a role as a part-time back, Mixon’s talent should enable him eventually to pass Hill on the depth chart.
As for Giovani Bernard, he’s a fantastic receiver but coming off an ACL tear that may limit him at the beginning of the season. Once Bernard returns to health, Hill still might be the preferable back, as Bernard is a subpar runner and thus a tactical liability. When Bernard is on the field, the defense knows a pass is likely. With Mixon, however, the Bengals can run or pass on any given play. Even as his ADP continues to climb, he represents value. For more on Mixon, see our Bengals fantasy preview.
Dalvin Cook (Vikings), 54.3 ADP
Before the combine Cook was viewed as perhaps the best running back in the class, but his disappointing athletic measurables (33rd percentile SPARQ-x score, PlayerProfiler) caused him to drop out of the first round. Chosen by the Vikings with the 41st pick, Cook might seem to be in a bad situation with Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon on the roster, but he will likely get a lot of opportunity as a rookie. Despite his athleticism (100th percentile SPARQ-x), McKinnon hasn’t been able to carve out a substantial role in Minnesota for three years. Last year he was just 58th at the position with 0.69 fantasy points per opportunity. And Murray, even with 2,350 scrimmage yards 18 touchdowns over the last two years, has been an inefficient player. Last year Murray had a pedestrian 4.0 YPC while his backups DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard were well above 5.0 YPC.
Although the Vikings were just 23rd in scoring last year, they will likely be better this year as quarterback Sam Bradford has a full offseason to master the offense and get in sync with his receivers. Also, with the additions of left tackle Riley Reiff, center Pat Elflein, and right tackle Mike Remmers, the Vikings offensive line should finish with more than 4.63 adjusted line yard per carry (30th, 2016).
Samaje Perine (Redskins), 103.2 ADP
Right now Rob Kelley is the starter in Washington, but he’s just a second-year player who entered the league as an undrafted free agent with inefficient play at Tulane (3.6 YPC) and uninspiring athleticism at his pro day (4.73-second 40). Averaging just 4.4 yards per touch (54th among running backs), Kelley last year was basically the starter by default. Enter the fourth-rounder Perine, Oklahoma’s all-time leading rusher with 4,122 yards in just three seasons. Never in any college campaign did Perine average less than 100 yards and a touchdown per game. If Kelley struggles in 2017 — in his nine starts he averaged only 66.8 yards per game — Perine should get a shot to be the lead back on a team that last year was 12th in the league with 24.8 points per game. Washington has PFF’s 11th-ranked offensive line entering the season. Perine is just one of several fourth-round rookies who could crush.
Marlon Mack (Colts), 196.5 ADP
Frank Gore may be immortal. In a million years he may sit with cockroaches looking over the nuclear wasteland that used to be Earth and reminisce about his days playing football. Or he could be a 34-year-old running back who has underperformed his career averages in carries (16.5) and rushing yards (72.6) per game for the last three and four seasons. In his two seasons with the Colts, Gore has been suboptimal in situations in which most backs thrive. For instance, as a home favorite he’s averaged a mere 10.72 DraftKings points per game with a +0.81 Plus/Minus and 41.7 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Meanwhile, Mack is a 21-year-old rookie with good size (5’11” and 213 lbs.), athleticism (4.50-second 40), and college production (1,369 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns per season). If Gore suffers an injury, Mack could find himself in a timeshare with underperforming goal-line vulture Robert Turbin — and Mack has the capacity to win that competition. Even if Gore stays healthy, Mack could carve out a pass-catching role. He’s basically a better version of who the the Colts wanted Josh Ferguson to be last year.
For more on Indy’s backfield, see our Colts fantasy preview.
De’Angelo Henderson (Broncos), 216.5 ADP
The case for Henderson is simple. He’s good, and the running backs ahead of him are either inconsistent and/or not good (C.J. Anderson), old and/or maybe still injured (Jamaal Charles), and injured and/or probably not good (Devontae Booker). Henderson is short (5’8″) but stout (208 lbs.), and he’s a strong receiver, catching 93 passes in his three collegiate workhorse seasons for 882 yards and six touchdowns. As a runner he was powerful, accumulating 115.3 yards and 1.49 touchdowns per game across 35 contests. He has sneaky three-down potential and the ability serve as a pass-catching back right away.
Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how this unit takes shape and to track any injury updates. For more on the backfield, see our Broncos fantasy preview. And when the season starts be sure to subscribe to FantasyLabs and do all your daily fantasy research with our Tools and Models.
