This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
There are six games on today’s NHL schedule. However, Vegas is celebrating Nevada Day with a matinee against Colorado. This game is not included on either main slate.
Roman Josi, Defense, Predators ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Josi is the highest-rated player in the CSURAM88 Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is averaging 3.1 shots per game, and his price tag is too low given his peripheral floor. He’s been hot lately as well, averaging 6.0 DraftKings points over his last four games. That said, tonight may not be the best spot to target him: Josi has exceeded salary-based expectations in just two games this season, both of which were at home; he’s on the road in Chicago tonight. In that spot, and also as an underdog, it might be wise to pivot to other players.
Seth Jones, Defense, Blue Jackets ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Jones has been a machine so far this season, averaging 4.2 and 14.9 FPPG on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Jones has exceeded expectations in 67 percent of games this season and has an average Plus/Minus of +5.77 on FanDuel. His ownership, which has been low all season, will likely see an increase tonight given the Blue Jackets’ slate-high Vegas implied total of 3.9. That mark is the highest for any team so far this season. Jones skates with Zach Werenski on the Blue Jackets’ top defensive pair, and he anchors the second power-play unit, which will have chances to exploit Winnipeg’s 26th-ranked penalty kill.
Justin Faulk, Defense, Hurricanes ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
Faulk hits on seven Pro Trends on both sites and has a very high peripheral floor for his price tag. He has averaged 2.56 DraftKings points per game despite having just two assists this season, and he leads all defensemen on the slate with 3.11 shots per game. Faulk logs over 23 minutes per game, and the Carolina power-play, which faces St. Louis’ 27th-ranked penalty kill, runs primarily through him. Faulk has 4.19 shots + blocks per game, and he is averaging nearly three minutes of time on ice on the power-play each game. Players with similar data points and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +0.41 on DraftKings.
Artemi Panarin, Winger, Blue Jackets ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Panarin is the highest-rated forward in the CSURAM88 Model for both sites. As mentioned above, the Blue Jackets are in a great spot at home against Winnipeg, who is coming off an overtime loss in Pittsburgh last night. Panarin has settled into his new surroundings over the past five games, piling up six assists and 17 shots on goal while averaging 4.1 DraftKings PPG. Further, since his two duds earlier in the season, he hasn’t scored fewer than 9.6 points on FanDuel. Panarin could be especially intriguing since he has strong correlation with several of his teammates and Columbus is implied for a slate-high 3.9 goals.
Mikael Backlund, Center, Flames ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
Backlund has been hot lately, recording two goals, one assist, and 11 shots on goal in his last three games. The Calgary Flames have the slate’s second-highest implied total at 3.3 against Dallas. The Stars’ defensive numbers rank in the middle of the pack, as they have given up an average of 29 shots and 3.1 goals per game. Backlund is a fairly cheap option on DraftKings, which makes him especially useful on a night where many players will be paying up for defensemen. Backlund has a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he also has an average Plus/Minus of +0.51.
