This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Well, we’re back. It’s opening night of the NHL season, and although it is just a four-game slate both DraftKings and FanDuel have some solid contests. Let’s dive right in.
Auston Matthews: Center, Maple Leafs ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
After winning the Calder trophy last year for rookie of the year, Matthews will look to build on his 40-goal, 69-point season. He was much more productive away from Toronto last season with a +0.63 Plus/Minus, 54.5 percent Consistency Rating, and 12.1 percent ownership rate on DraftKings. On home ice, Matthews had a +0.10 Plus/Minus, 47.7 percent Consistency Rating, and 13.1 percent ownership. Pro subscribers can review ownership rates across GPPs after lineups lock. Last season, Matthews averaged 3.4 shots per game. Historically, players averaging a similar number of shots on goal per game have had a +0.18 Plus/Minus. While the Winnipeg Jets are projected to allow the third-fewest shots on the slate, they allowed the 11th most last season. Furthermore, the Maple Leafs averaged the fourth-most shots last season. There should be plenty of offensive potential for Matthews and the Leafs on opening night.
Jake Guentzel: Winger, Penguins ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
The Pittsburgh Penguins lead the slate with an implied Vegas total of 3.2 goals. A second-year player like Matthews, Guentzel is different in that he’s not the one who drives his line, but he plays on Sidney Crosby‘s left wing and offers some value considering his role. With the injury to Patric Hornqvist, Guentzel could slot into the top power play unit as he did last season in a similar situation. The Penguins had a 23.1 percent success rate on the power play last season, tied for third in the NHL. On the opposite side, the St. Louis Blues had an 84.8 percent penalty kill rate, which was third best, but the Blues are missing some of their top penalty killers from last season due to injury (Jay Bouwmeester, Patrik Berglund, and likely Alex Steen), which favors the Penguins dominant power play.
Brent Burns: Defenseman, Sharks ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Burns is the highest-rated player in the CSURAM88 Model on DraftKings, where he’s tied for third with seven Pro Trends. Burns can put up offensive numbers superior to those of most forwards. Last season he finished ninth overall with 76 points and just inside the top 30 with 29 goals. Additionally, Burns excels with his shots and blocks numbers, averaging a combined 5.63 per game. These are great peripheral stats, placing Burns in rare company: Historically, defensemen averaging between 5.55 and 5.75 blocks/shots per game have a +0.76 Plus/Minus and 51.8 percent Consistency Rating. However, these players have also been popular with a 16.6 percent ownership rate. Still, Burns is averaging 0.9 shots per game more than the next defenseman on the slate. His high offensive potential along with his high peripheral floor make him viable in all formats.
Oscar Klefbom: Defense, Oilers ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
The Edmonton Oilers have the second-highest implied total on the slate at 3.1 goals. They had one of the best power play units last season, ranking fifth with a 22.9 percent success rate. On the other side of the special teams battle, the Calgary Flames had the 12th-best penalty kill with an 81.6 percent success rate. However, the Flames last year were shorthanded 277 times (3.38 per game), the second-highest total in the NHL. If they allow the Oilers to have more than three power plays, that could be costly. Klefbom plays on the top power play unit with some of the NHL’s best offensive players in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. A rare player who produces in many facets of the game, Klefbom averages 4.23 shots/blocks along with 0.2 power play points per game. Defensemen with similar numbers have historically been dominant on FanDuel with 11.37 points per game and a +1.40 Plus/Minus.
Matt Murray: Goalie, Penguins ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
The Penguins have a moneyline of -185, which is by far the highest on the slate. Murray is the third-most expensive goalie on DraftKings and most expensive on FanDuel. Similar home favorite goaltenders have had a lot of success on FanDuel, averaging 19.14 points per game with a +1.42 Plus/Minus and 57.7 percent Consistency Rating. However, they’ve also had an elevated ownership rate of 16.6 percent in guaranteed prize pools. Still, eat might be worthwhile to eat the chalk, as the Penguins are taking on the St. Louis Blues, who have a slate-low 2.4-goal implied total. Murray has a lot of factors in his favor; just expect him to popular.
