This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have a five-game main slate that start at 7:30 pm ET. In this piece I use the Corsi For Percentage metric, which is defined as this by NHL.com:
Corsi For Percentage: Corsi is all shots on net, blocked shots, and missed shots, added together (basically, shot attempts). CF% is (Corsi For)/(Corsi For + Corsi Against). A CF% of 50% means a player has broken even; a CF% above 50% means he’s a positive possession player, which is desirable to teams.
Auston Matthews: Center, Maple Leafs ($8,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
The Maple Leafs lead the slate with an implied Vegas total of 3.5 goals. Auston Matthews is off to a hot start with two goals and five points in his first three games. Playing alongside William Nylander and Zach Hyman, Matthews is on the Toronto first line that was top-five in possession stats last year with a 55.15 CF% (Corsica). The Leafs are averaging 38.3 shots per game (sixth most) while the New Jersey Devils are allowing 33 shots per game (18th worst). Over the last year Matthews ranks top-10 with 3.4 shots per game. While many players capitalize on the power play, Matthews also dominates at even strength, leading the NHL as a rookie last season with 32 even-strength goals. Matthews is seeing a ton of ice time, leading all Leafs forwards in even-strength time on ice, power play time on ice, and overall time on ice per game. With all of his opportunities, there is no reason to expect him to slow down. Matthews is the No. 4 player in the CSURAM88 Model.
Tyler Toffoli: Winger, Kings ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
The Los Angeles Kings have the slate’s third-highest implied Vegas total with 3.0 goals and second-largest moneyline at -134. Tyler Toffoli is expected to skate alongside Jeff Carter and Tanner Pearson on a line that over the past couple years has been dubbed “That 70s Line.” The trio has consistently been one of the best possession lines in the NHL, last season leading all lines that spent 300-plus even-strength minutes together with a 63.12 CF%. Of the three, Toffoli had the highest individual CF%, ranking eighth. Pearson was not far behind, sitting 11th. Toffoli has been firing the puck a lot to start the season, averaging six shots per game. While that is unsustainable, he has 2.6 shots per game over the last three seasons. Historically, players with similar Vegas data at home have averaged a +1.22 FanDuel Plus/Minus at 3.1 percent ownership.
Jesper Bratt: Winger, Devils ($3,400 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel)
Jesper Bratt was taken in the sixth round with the 162nd overall pick in the 2016 NHL draft. To be playing in the NHL so quickly with that draft position is remarkable. On top of that, he is off to an incredible start to his career, putting up three goals and five points in his first two NHL games. He has been playing on the right wing with Pavel Zacha in middle and Taylor Hall on the left. Playing alongside Hall is a huge boost, as he has historically been one of the better shot-generating forwards in the NHL over the course of his career, ranking 13th overall in shots per game over the last five seasons. Bratt also plays on the top power play line along with Hall, making the line stack a high-upside play.
Torey Krug: Defense, Bruins ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
After missing the opening game of the season, Torey Krug resumed his role as the power play quarterback for the Boston Bruins. He is expected to be in this role tonight against a Colorado Avalanche team that, though 2-1, is allowing 35.7 shots against per game, the 11th-highest total in the NHL. This is especially good for Boston and Krug, who is one of the league’s best shot-generating defensemen, ranking third last season with a 57.44 CF% and averaging 3.6 shots+blocks per game. Krug has the offensive upside needed for guaranteed prize pools and the high peripheral floor for cash games.
Brandon Montour: Defense, Ducks ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel)
One of our favorite bargain darlings from last season, Brandon Montour continuously was underpriced last season on a crowded defense in Anaheim. He especially shined in the playoffs, picking up seven assists in 17 games for the Ducks. With Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen on the shelf with injuries, Montour has picked up extra ice time, playing on the top power play unit and averaging 2:45 of power play time per game. Ranking second among Anaheim defensemen last season with 1.9 shots per game, he is now averaging 2.7 shots per game to start the year. With plenty of players and line stacks to pay up for in this slate, Montour’s 94 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating makes him appealing at home against the Islanders. As long as Vatanen and Lindholm are injured and Montour is this cheap, he makes for a great salary-saving play.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
