This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Tonight we have a huge 14-game slate that begins at 7 pm ET.
Tyler Seguin: Center, Stars ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
The Dallas Stars lead the slate with an implied Vegas total of 3.6 goals. Tyler Seguin and the Stars have struggled to get going offensively with just eight goals in their first four games. Seguin actually has two of those eight goals on 29 shots but has converted on a career-low 6.9 percent of his shots. He has a career average shooting rate of 11.1 percent, so he should see progression soon. The Stars have a stacked top line, as Seguin is centering Jamie Benn and Alex Radulov. Tonight, the Stars will look to take advantage of a tired Avalanche team playing on the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights.
Evander Kane: Winger, Sabres ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
Here we have another player shooting a ton. With 27 shots in his first four games, Kane has the second-most shots in the NHL. The Sabres are in a tough spot tonight on the road against the Los Angeles Kings, but with his volume of shots Kane has upside. Kane is averaging 3.89 shots per game over the last year, so his 6.75 mark to start the season is unsustainable. However, players with similar shot totals over the last year have had a +0.55 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 45.4 percent Consistency Rating. He has been playing with Ryan O’Reilly and Jason Pominville at even strength, and the trio stays together on the power play for an increased line-stack correlation.
Clayton Keller: Winger, Coyotes ($4,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
The Arizona Coyotes are hosting the Boston Bruins tonight and implied for 2.7 goals. While this may be a low number, the Coyotes are taking on Bruins backup goaltender Anton Khudobin, who hasn’t had a save percentage above .909 since the 2013-2014 season. Keller is playing alongside Max Domi and Derek Stepan and this line sticks together on the top power play unit, which increases Keller’s upside. He is third on the team — behind his two linemates — with a 52.68 Corsi For percentage. It sounds like Bruins shutdown center Patrice Bergeron will miss this game with an injury, which opens up an opportunity for Keller and the entire top line of the Coyotes.
Duncan Keith: Defense, Blackhawks ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
Duncan Keith is off to a slow start this season with just one assist and no goals in his first five games. However, while the offense may not be there, Keith finds ways to put up fantasy points. He is averaging 3.72 shots+blocks over the last year. Historically, defensemen with similar numbers have a +1.16 FanDuel Plus/Minus and a 47.6 Consistency Rating. They’ve also had just 6.0 percent ownership rates, so DFS players have tended to undervalue these solid plays. Keith plays in all situations, averaging over 24 minutes of ice time per game, which is top-20 in the NHL. Given his opportunities on the top power play unit, the offense will come. Keith is the No. 3 DraftKings defensemen in the CSURAM88 Model.
Will Butcher: Defense, Devils ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel)
The New Jersey Devils have been a surprise this season, starting 3-1 with 18 goals for and just 11 goals against. The Devils have a 29.4 percent power play conversion rate, and a big part of that has been Will Butcher. Of the Devils five power play goals, five were assisted by Butcher. The Devils are taking on the New York Rangers, who have the sixth-worst penalty kill early in the season, allowing five goals on 19 penalty kills. Butcher relies heavily on his power play presence, as he otherwise doesn’t accumulate many shots and isn’t a prolific blocker. The Rangers are going to be using their backup goalie Ondrej Pavelec, who has struggled mightily in the NHL, so much so that he was demoted to the AHL last season. He has only one season with a save percentage above .906 since 2010-2011.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
